Bias-parameters
LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP
Fresh intraday high fails to gain traction.
[pay]Post-open gyrations are honoring the limitations discussed during this morning’s Market Tour. The bank holiday’s lower liquidity is preventing trending beyond a bias signal, but not preventing a bias signal test. And despite the open’s 3-point spike down to 1764.00, the 1769.50 bias-up signal was tested.
The bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Late no-bias triggered at 10:30, putting into play an offsetting test of the 1763.00 bias-down signal.
Triggering a late signal is less reliable than triggering it cleanly. Its objective is still credible, but reactions along the way there are more vulnerable to abandoning the objective and reversing direction. That’s especially concerning up here at the highs, and within the orbit of Thursday’s 1774.50 pre-open high.
Back above 1769.00 would start to signal the high’s retest is underway, instead. Its retest could visit 1777.75. Otherwise, fresh session lows would be vulnerable to extending down and retracing much more of Friday’s rally.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1773.50 | 1769.50 |
| …would target | 1781.25 | 1777.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1767.75 | 1763.00 |
| …would target | 1762.00 | 1758.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1764.25 | 1760.25 |
| …would target | 1768.50 | 1764.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1753.75 | 1750.00 |
| …would target | 1749.00 | 1745.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1756.25 | 1752.25 |
| …would target | 1761.75 | 1758.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1744.25 | 1740.50 |
| …would target | 1738.50 | 1734.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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LATE BIAS-DOWN
Fresh session lows confirm a corner is being turned.
[pay]Having touched 1756.00 this morning, any bounce was henceforth deemed to be only a temporary correction. In fact, an obligatory bounce off of 1752.75 came within 2 ticks of its potential to 1762.00 before reversing down to new session lows.
This afternoon’s 1756.00 bias-down signal was still being tested within 3 minuets of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. But it was broken cleanly through 1:30.
Unless 1756.00-1757.00 were recovered through a relevant timing window to at least undermine the decline, sellers get every benefit of the doubt. The only wild card may be in whether anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report paralyzes price action for the balance of the day. As much as that it is possible, this pattern would be odd not to produce more fresh lows first.
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