Bias-parameters

[pay]

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]

No timely resolution to the bias-up signal’s test… Also, special note at the bottom.

[pay]Bias-up doesn’t always trend straight up. I wish. But the path can take dramatic detours.

This morning’s bias-up environment made any interim dip likely to recover, and this morning’s detour was not shallow. In fact, a productive sell signal was triggered under 1754.50 on the way down to retesting the open’s 1752.25 low.

Not recovering this morning’s 1755.00 bias-up signal before noon would have invalidated the bias-up, and not required extending any higher. It was recovered, and extended higher to 1759.00.

Now this afternoon’s 1758.00 bias-up signal is in question. It was tested within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the 10-minute grace period. But it was still being tested at 1:30 to avoid triggering either way. This is not a bias-up environment, nor is it a no-bias. This is a noN-bias environment.

There is no requirement to test the opposing bias signal or the bias-up target. But this morning’s 1760.25 bias-up target remains outstanding. As does the 1762.25 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” that requires being retested intraday, often the same day.

Considering this morning’s near-death experience, I continue giving the rally a benefit of the doubt. But also considering this morning’s near-death experience, I continue to view this particular choppiness as signaling that a significant peak is nearing.

SPECIAL NOTE: Due to travel, I will be unavailable tomorrow morning for a Market Tour. There will be no Market Tour on Tuesday morning. I anticipate being present at the open. Thank you!

[/pay]

[pay]

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]

Bias-up signal rejected.

[pay]This morning’s recovery above the 1755.00 bias-up signal triggered cleanly at 10:15. But it was never any more productive than prior to any trending underway at 10:15. So, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 1755.00 would invalidate the bias-up.

The bias environment is lapsing back under 1755.00. It is completely exited at noon, so recovering 1755.00 through then would avoid invalidating the bias-up. This morning’s 1760.25 bias-up target would become “unfinished business above” and require being tested eventually.

Regardless of how this morning’s bias signal is resolved, the 1762.25 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” will require being tested eventually, too. But neither retest would have any particular timing requirement.

Entering the noon hour under 1755.00 would still invalidate the bias-up signal. There would be no unfinished business above.

[/pay]

Pre-open slide fails to gain traction.

[pay]The overnight slide back to 1751.50 still had room below before sellers could gain any traction for their effort. They took none of it. In fact, the open was greeted back at 1754.75, unchanged from Friday’s cash session close.

The opening 15 minutes of volatility took its time before extending the pre-open bounce was extended to probe above Friday’s highs. Even that was retraced immediately to consolidate a little further. But a surge extended to 1757.75, triggering the bias-up signal, putting into play the 1760.25 bias-up target.

That leg’s 1756.50 pullback limit has been probed deeper than its first 3 minutes. This now being a bias-up environment, the next hour’s lower-end should be the 1755.00 bias-up signal, making the dip likely to recover. In fact, an errant tick under 1755.00 just reacted back up to 1756.50.

Any higher would signal that this morning’s rally had resumed. Both 1760.25 and the 1762.25 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” could be tested.

Back under 1754.50 would undermine the bias-up signal. It hasn’t yet been any more productive since before it triggered, so exiting the bias environment under its signal would leave no unfinished business above.

[/pay]