Bias-parameters
Morning bias
[pay]
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1760.00 | 1755.00 |
| …would target | 1765.25 | 1760.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1751.50 | 1746.50 |
| …would target | 1744.50 | 1739.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]
NO-BIAS
Trending still not catching.
[pay]The noon hour’s dip to fresh session lows held a test of 1747.00. Its reaction thoroughly tested 1750.50, which held. It almost touched the 1751.75 bias-up signal, which didn’t trigger.
This is a no-bias environment. There is no requirement to test either bias signal, only that the bias signals define the next hour’s range.
Back under 1749.25 would be likely to probe fresh session lows, potentially down to 1744.00. And despite needing to define the range’s upper-end, back above 1751.75 could extend to fresh session highs as no-bias trending before reversing back down.
All of which sounds very exciting. But this being a Friday afternoon, with two consecutive no-bias signals, the burden of proof is on any sponsorship to prove itself capable of producing any trending at all.
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1757.00 | 1751.75 |
| …would target | 1761.75 | 1756.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1749.00 | 1744.00 |
| …would target | 1742.75 | 1737.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]
LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP
The post-open blog post’s subject is now the bias signal.
[pay]Pre-open action extended above overnight highs, and post-open action touched 1751.75. That allowed room during the opening 15 minutes of volatility to range narrowly, supported by the overnight highs.
But 1751.75 held its test through 9:45, missing an opportunity to reinforce the 1750.50 bias-up attempt. A later surge came within 3 ticks of touching Tuesday’s 1754.50 high, neutralizing the attraction to retest its overbought RSIs. Its reaction down failed to hold 1750.50, triggering no-bias, and putting into play a test of the 1744.00 bias-down signal.
The bias signal actually triggered late, having invoked the grace period by touching the 1750.50 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 10:15. The signal’s lateness was offset by probing fresh post-open lows through 10:30. But the 1744.00 objective won’t become unfinished business if left outstanding.
Also undermining the downside is that the 1754.50 unfinished business above would be better resolved by actually probing it, not just attacking it to within 3 ticks. But the 3-tick rule exists because that can suffice.
And this being a Friday, this morning’s no-bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. Slow-playing an eventual dip to 1744.00 would be better positioned to extending down through the afternoon. That path could include more backing-and-filling, with room to test the 1750.50 bias-up signal as resistance — probing it by 3 ticks would also retrace the 1753.75-1747.50 drop by a natural 61.8%.
Exiting the bias environment back above its 1750.50 bias-up signal, which was rejected late, could marginalize sellers for the day.
[/pay]