Bias-parameters
When is a bias-up not a bias-up…
…Very weak bias-up gets a very small benefit of the doubt.
[pay]OFFICIALLY: It’s a bias-up environment. The 1077.00 bias-up signal was overlapped by a 3-minute bar to either side of the 10:15 print. This invoked the 15-minute grace period. The 1077.00 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:30 to trigger a late bias-up.
TECHNICALLY: The bias-up signal wasn’t clean. The 3-minute bar touching the bias-up signal came after 10:15. And the 10:30 bar had retraced back down to the bias-up signal.
Despite probing higher highs to 1080.75 since then, and despite having potential to the 1083.00 bias-up target, this is a less reliable signal than we’re accustomed to. At least the 1077.00 bias-up signal held as support through 10:30, when its break could have resumed the decline. But that’s only bullish to the degree it isn’t bearish. It’s not accumulation, but a delay of more distribution.
Back under 1077.00 would still be bearish, especially after 11:30.
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1078.00 | 1077.00 |
| …would target | 1084.00 | 1083.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1068.25 | 1067.25 |
| …would target | 1061.25 | 1060.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1095.00 | 1094.00 |
| …would target | 1101.00 | 1100.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1081.00 | 1080.00 |
| …would target | 1073.00 | 1072.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1095.25 | 1094.00 |
| …would target | 1101.25 | 1100.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1081.25 | 1080.00 |
| …would target | 1073.25 | 1072.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN TARGET OVERNIGHT | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1102.50 | 1101.25 |
| …would target | 1108.25 | 1107.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1093.75 | 1092.50 |
| …would target | 1087.75 | 1086.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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