Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s gap down an narrowly ranging session didn’t accomplish anything other than what it prevented from being accomplished — Thursday’s breakout wasn’t confirmed. Monday’s price action essentially duplicated Friday’s, so reversing momentum back down isn’t yet assured.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s wide ranging had held its bounce limit, so Monday’s gap down under Friday’s lows was capable of extending down. It only ranged narrowly sideways under Friday’s lows, remaining vulnerable to extending down to the 1329-1332 target.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Friday had all but required extending down next to 18.75-18.85. Gapping down sharply Monday probed the target area’s upper-end, and also confirmed Friday’s breakout from a multi-session range, requiring at least an eventual third lower close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday wasn’t the optimal recovery path from Friday’s probe of fresh lows, despite that probe not gaining traction through the close. But not gaining traction through the close is what enabled an immediate recovery to be credible, at all. Quickly recovering 171-26 helped to extend higher to test the 172-16 buy signal, which had held its test through Monday’s noon hour.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rolling forward Monday from Sep to Oct, at a 60-cent premium, was accompanied by gapping down back into the 47.45-48.00 bounce target that had been probed into the weekend. Its lower end was attacked intraday, but must still be confirmed to consider the week-long rally as having ended.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap down under Thursday’s 2.61 low was a delayed reaction to not immediately rejecting the knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report. The likely consequence was to fill the gap below down to 2.55 or lower. Closing back above Thursday’s 2.70 high could invalidate the downside, so it is interesting that Friday’s gap up into Thursday’s range touched 2.70. It’s recovery would still be bullish, but meanwhile the pattern remains likelier to produce fresh lows.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday only back to Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs around 1.1330 didn’t reverse momentum down. But it did prevent a second consecutive higher close from confirming Thursday’s breakout. And that keeps the door open to reversing momentum down and reinstating the decline targeting a retest of Brexit lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back down under 1348.00 Friday once again defended against this wide. sloppy, choppy range from breaking higher, maintaining potential for fresh lows at 1329.00-1332.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having fulfilled the 19.65 target at recent lows didn’t prevent probing fresh lows overnight down to 19.22 and gapping down Friday to test 19.30 intraday. Almost any lower close could send the pattern down to 18.80 or 18.40.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday under 171-26 all but signaled the recent intraday tests of its resistance had held, and that new lows are in-play. All but signaled. Closing back above the prior week’s low after probing under it intraday does maintain potential for recovering 172-16 to launch another rally leg .

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday and trending through the 46.80-47.60 bounce target to test 48.40 was not rejected Friday. Neither did it extend higher, as the session only ranged narrowly sideways. That leaves open a window for its abrupt rejection back under 46.80. Any shallower dip into the 46.80-47.60 range would still be able to recover and resume the rally.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday to Thursday’s 2.61 low was a delayed reaction to having maintained the favorable knee-jerk reaction to its EIA report. Probing lower intraday to 2.58 helped to confirm the gap back down to 2.55 would likely be filled, and also probed to new lows at or under 2.50 before another credible rally could begin. Only closing above 2.70 can suggest otherwise.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s late spike back up to Tuesday’s opening high extend higher Thursday morning, attacking 1.1375 resistance and qualifying as a breakout from a multi-session range. A second consecutive higher close would require a third eventual higher close, so a bearish scenario must reverse down sharply Friday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting up after Wednesday’s close to FOMC Minutes had retested 1355.50 resistance. It was still being tested Thursday morning despite 1361.50 overnight. The attraction below to 1329.00-1332.00 isn’t invalidated, but being positioned closer to 1367.50 resistance makes its recovery easier..

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Shallow overnight strength still had not filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. No rally leg has been launched, but meanwhile all unfinished business below is neutralized.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having recovered only to test 171-26 Wednesday, Thursday’s narrow ranging around it needed to close above 172-16 to suggest a recovery is underway. Not yet rallying out of Friday’s open would become substantially more vulnerable to resuming Tuesday’s decline.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs Thursday trended through the 46.80-47.60 bounce target and 40 cents above 48.00. This does not change whether an abrupt and aggressive reaction down is the appropriate path to starting a new downleg. But closing higher Friday would make the current rally likely to extend.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness wasn’t going to prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. But that reaction would be likely to fail, yet it did not. The recent range’s 2.63 upper-end was probed up to 2.70. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm Thursday’s breakout. Meanwhile, back under 2.61 would target filling last week’s gap back down to 2.55.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
.Narrow ranging Wednesday morning waited out the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Its reaction spiked back up to Tuesday’s high. Still monitoring the pattern for new parameters.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday to 1348.00 rejected Tuesday ‘s close above the 1352.50 bounce limit. Little follow-through preceded the FOMC Minutes. A blip-down to 1340.50 reacted sharply to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1355.00 close. The 1332.00 objective remains outstanding, and would be put back in play under 1348.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped down although the overnight lows had already tested the pullback’s 19.65 minimum objective. Retesting it intraday was followed by a blip-down to 19.37 in reaction to the FOMC Minutes. Its recovery back up to 19.80 was still under Tuesday’s close, so not credible for reversing momentum up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s lower lows didn’t extend down Wednesday morning. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Wednesday allows another rally attempt. The reaction to FOMC Minutes barely managed to test 171-26 resistance, whose recovery is the minimum to start anticipating another rally effort.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Barely nicking the lower-end of the 46.80-47.60 bounce target Wednesday had already reacted down intraday, but not deeply enough or aggressively enough to suggest momentum is yet reversing down.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a couple of cents above the current trading range’s 2.63 highs failed to extend higher, and was retraced back into the range. Closing there, with the recent gap outstanding below, would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness likely to react down on the news.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up sharply Tuesday removes the 1.1175 sell signal’s near-term influence. Although its slight break Friday wasn’t confirmed Monday, that sequence had not formed a durable base to launch a new rally leg. And gapping up doesn’t make it any more credible. But rejecting the rally immediately isn’t likely, even in the most bearish scenario, so I’m monitoring one more session before identifying new parameters.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday back to the range’s upper-end wasn’t any likelier to extend than was Friday’s opening spike up. In fact, almost the entire gap was retraced before noon. But the 1352.70 bounce limit was probed again into the afternoon, and should hold as resistance for optimal confirmation that 1332.00 remain in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday was retraced entirely through the morning and into negative territory. That didn’t extend down, but 19.90 held as resistance to prevent sellers buyers from gaining traction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging at Tuesday’s open to touch Monday’s high was literally as much strength as possible without actually reversing the trend back up. It held, and reversed down under 171-22 to test 171-02. Closing lower again Wednesday would make a buy signal unlikely to trigger before new lows were probed

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s breakout was on-track for producing its eventual higher close, which is required after being confirmed Monday. The likely target area at 46.80-47.60 was attacked to within a dime, so probing it Wednesday and closing negative would be a likely top.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Tuesday morning did not resemble the initial strength that would have been likely to extend sharply higher through the day. That setup is no longer relevant, although gapping up above the 2.62 prior high would at least suggest a bottom has formed.