Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s bounce came after Wednesday’s second consecutive lower close had confirmed Tuesday’s breakout, requiring at least one future lower close. Friday’s drop fulfilled it. Thursday’s shallow interim bounce suggests the fresh low will resolve sooner rather than later. But fresh lows on a Friday suggest more to come on Monday morning, first.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Friday from Thursday’s gap down closed above 1277.00 to suggest the drop was trying to bottom. But that doesn’t equate to momentum reversing up, and may simply be a position of strength to absorb the next downleg to 1265.00. And lower lows do remain in-play, absent a second consecutive higher close Monday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monitoring for coinciding with Gold’s direction and relative price points, but not yet in degree, to determine whether this current leg can form a durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing overnight to 140-16 resistance reacted down to test 139-24 on Yellen’s speech. Perhaps it was the outstanding attraction above that enabled the dip’s recovery to at least retest 140-16. Any higher would target the gap back to 141-02, likely to be tested up to 141-06.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another attack on the decline’s 92.90 target was recovered to test 93.50, a preliminary resistance to 94.00, whose recovery would launch an upleg targeting at least 96.00.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Stopping pessimistically short of touching 3.91 resistance didn’t prevent reacting down, but the reaction down held 3.83 support to maintain potential for launching a rally leg.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having entrenched the decline to require at least one more future lower close, Thursday’s bounce back to Tuesday’s close helped to refuel the decline.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
“Ineffectual optimism” that had defended 1296.00 pointlessly on Wednesday was punished Thursday by breaking well under the 1284.50 target to 1274.00. A bounce was rejected in favor of retesting the low. A recovery is unlikely to begin immediately in this pattern. But closing back above 1277.00 would start to suggest the drop was trying to bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dropping to another fresh low on Thursday returned the pattern to be in tandem with Gold, albeit only to temporarily pierce Tuesday’s prior low. Nevertheless, both bouncing simultaneously would be credible for reversing the trend back up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s piercing of the 139-24 sell signal didn’t react up until after Thursday’s open, which recovered above 140-02. At least a test of 141-02 is in-play so long as 139-24 now holds as support.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh trend lows overnight held the retest of the decline’s 92.90 target and recovered into Thursday’s open. Extending higher Thursday probed back above the 94.00 buy signal. Triggering it would target 96.30, o long as 92.90 were then held as support.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing overnight to retest 3.91 resistance was erased before Thursday’s open. The EIA reaction took price down sharply to test Wednesday’s 3.79 low, but it was recovered back up toward 3.91 resistance — stopping pessimistically short of 3.91 is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. A floor appears to have been established, and closing above 3.93 would trigger the next rally leg.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes greeted several patterns already in reaction mode. Bonds were probing support, Crude Oil was probing resistance, and Natural Gas was retracing the prior day’s surge. When the dust settled, all but the long bond was behaving

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s gap down held to confirm Tuesday’s breakout. At least a third lower close is required at some future point, not necessarily immediately, and not necessarily just one. But a lower close is likelier sooner rather than later so long as bounces now hold 1.3310 as resistance.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows down to 1292.00 Wednesday started chipping away at 1296.00 support, which had held optimistically Tuesday. The FOMC Minutes reaction triggered a post-close dive to 1288.70 Lower lows down to 1284.50 remain in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having extended down already unilaterally Tuesday, Wednesday’s bounce suggested the Precious Metals complex may be trying to coordinate a low. Reacting down to the FOMC Minutes did not produce a fresh low.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday morning was piercing under the 139-24 support that had held Tuesday. into and out of the FOMC Minutes release. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm a new downleg underway. Otherwise, recovering 140-02 would target 141-02 and potentially 141-14.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite Tuesday’s test of the longstanding 95.00 target actually being exceeded slightly intraday, its test did satisfy a lot of selling pressure. The 95.50 bounce limit was tested overnight, and the 96.30 reversal signal was being tested ahead of the close. However, Oct expiration is the new front month, and it remained under pressure at the 95.00 target’s 92.90 equivalent — back above 94.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up had extended all the way to 3.91 resistance. A pullback to at least test 3.83 support was able to probe lower Wednesday down to 3.79 and to close while testing 3.83.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s rejection of Friday’s recovery not only avoided triggering a buy signal, but it was also followed Tuesday by a break to fresh lows. Recent ranging that had bottoming elements may yet prove only temporarily detoured from extending higher. But its probe of fresh lows is not a buy signal.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday was eerily calm, still hovering optimistically just above 1296.00 while the Dollar and Silver probed fresh lows. Post-close action did pierce under 1296.00. Regardless, the pullback still targets at least a test of 1284.50, especially so long as 1304.00 isn’t recovered.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s 19.47 low wasn’t rejected Monday, so its retest was likely. It was retested Tuesday morning on the way to fresh lows. No immediate buy signal would be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing to 140-16 was a sufficient interruption of Monday’s session-long drop for another drop to actually signal the trend reversing down, which closing under 140-00 would trigger. In fact, 140-16 did react down when tested. But fresh lows only touched 139-24 instead of breaking lower — which would still trigger a new downleg, but otherwise has potential for recovering to fill the gap back to Friday’s 141-01 close, if not also test 141-14 while still forming a top.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Initially bouncing Tuesday was reversed to fresh lows that fulfilled the decline’s 95.00 objective. Fresh lows attacked 94.25, so that a new bounce limit could be established at 95.50. Closing back above 96.00 would signal the trend reversing back up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Apparently, Monday’s bounces had chipped away at 3.82 resistance because Tuesday’s gap up above it easily extended higher intraday until touching 3.91 resistance. Closing any higher would make the recent high’s retest likely above 4.00. Meanwhile, a pullback to 3.82 would be helpful.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping back down Monday did not itself undo the bullish effort done by Friday’s gap up back above 1.3385, not until sliding under Thursday’s 1.3365 prior low close. It was still being tested into Monday’s close, so back above 1.3385 would still be capable of triggering a rally.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s recovery from gapping down was retraced at Monday’s open, almost touching 1296.00 support. That doesn’t necessarily confirm the trend is down, but the pattern remains likelier to test 1284.50 again before recovering 1313.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Slightly lower lows Sunday night weren’t repeated intraday Monday, nor must they be before launching a recovery. But not retesting the overnight low did open the door to recovering intraday, which was avoided, suggesting lower lows are likely.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s slide began at the open by gapping down to the 140-20 sell signal and then extended down to retest recent “lower prior highs” at 140-01. Back above 140-16 would likely fill the gap back to Friday’s close above 141-00, probably to form a more durable top.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The “weekend premium” that extended Friday’s bounce was rejected by Monday’s gap down that slid through what was otherwise the pattern’s 96.30 bounce limit. The balance of the session ranged around it, still likely to probe fresh lows down to 95.00 before becoming able to rally.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Monday to test 3.82 as resistance stopped 3 cents short of levels that would have signaled momentum reversing up. There is not currently an active signal.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…