Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Friday above 1.3385 does mitigate Thursday’s failure to close above 1.3375. The steep surge through it helps to confirm, as does holding its ground through the Ukraine-Russia headlines. None of which equates to a buy signal which is the only element lacking from the bottom.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping back to 1304.00 overnight extended to 1296.00  Friday morning in reaction to econ reports. Ukraine-Russia headlines reversed the action back up to 1311.00. The close was attacking 1304.00 support, leaving no active signal.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having failed to recover 19.97, the pattern remained vulnerable to resuming the decline. Which it did to gap down sharply Friday to new lows. An intraday bounce was retraced entirely, but not until testing “higher prior lows.” Back above 19.85 would signal momentum reversing up, but the trend is otherwise down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Potential for extending to fresh highs up to 140-20 were exceeded by more than 1 point to 141-21 during Friday morning’s Ukraine-Russia headlines. Its reaction down held 140-30 support. Back under 140-20 would now signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Weekend risk premium? Thursday’s low wasn’t touched Friday, which bounced more than $1 above my 96.30 bounce limit. That also retraced 61.8% of the drop from last week’s high. That’s still unlikely to reverse the trend up without first retesting Thursday’s low — not only since the calculable 95.00 target remains outstanding, but also because $2 breakouts below a consolidation tend not to produce an immediate bottom.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite the steep intraday bounce from greeting Thursday’s EIA report oversold and at support, not quite recovering 3.91 through the close failed to signal that momentum had reversed up. So, it extended down overnight to gap under Wednesday’s 3.82 low and trend down further post-open. There is no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s opening surge confirmed Wednesday’s failed surge did finish correcting the first upleg from Tuesday’s low by having closed at 1.3365. Thursday’s own failed surge needed to hold 1.3375 as support intraday and close above 1.3385 to confirm its selling had been absorbed. But the session closed back at 1.3365. That’s not bullish for a pattern that is otherwise ready to rally. Any probe above 1.3385 would have no excuse not to extend higher sharply, or else a new downleg could be underway shortly.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wide fluctuation persisted overnight  and continued after Thursday’s open, retesting 1310.00 support, surging to probe above 1321.00, and then reacting down to test 1313.00 support. Fresh highs intraday do buy a little more time to launch the rally’s next upleg, but it’s not indefinite.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing back above 19.97 Thursday was needed to confirm that Wednesday’s fresh lows had held 19.85 as support.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s auction was greeted from having retested the rally’s 139-25 target up to 140-00. A reaction down was recovered to again probe 140-00, but not to reject it. Fresh highs are likely so long as 139-25 holds as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still not extending higher aggressively overnight meant that Thursday was ever more likely to resume the decline, next targeting 95.00. Dropping ~$2 intraday to fresh lows did come within 30-cents of the target.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report greeted a freshly and heavily sold-off market that was testing its 3.85 support. The reaction triggered a substantial surge to probe above 3.91, which must maintain its recovery to signal momentum has reversed up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s initial spike up filled the two gaps created by the range’s most recent dip. That’s a lot of energy to expend. Its reaction expended more, falling back into negative territory. Holding 1.3355 suggests Wednesday’s reaction down has corrected the past two sessions’ gains, and back above 1.3385 should launch an obvious rally leg.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting 1305.00-1306.00 before Wednesday’s open was recovered by a surge back up to 1313.00. Recovering 1313.00 on a closing basis signals the next rally leg has begun, so long as a temporary pullback then holds 1310.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing from the pre-open test of 19.85 didn’t prevent reversing down to fresh lows Wednesday. Its reaction recovered 19.85, but the next trend should be obvious Thursday, or else the next trend is down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s unremarkable intraday dip tried extending down Wednesday, but snapped back up to prevent the drop from gaining traction. Thursday’s 30-year auction probably won’t prevent a retest of the rally’s 139-25 target. Its recovery or rejection through the close would be likely to extend in that direction.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s ranging back to the recent low has invalidated the potential inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that was forming. Not rallying strongly early Thursday would all but assure the next lower target at 95.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Opening Wednesday under 3.97 extended down through 3.91 to test 3.85 support. Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a pullback did enable a positive reaction last week, but fresh highs would have been preferable.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Limited internet access on Tuesday is limiting the amount of content I’m able to provide below. Everything is in context of the ongoing analysis, and the daily recordings, but ask any questions to this post’s thread in the blog.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The gap back down to Thursday’s close was filled by Tuesday’s gap down. Last week’s lows held their retest as support. All of the elements of a bottoming pattern are complete, and lacking only the trigger of a breakout. Until then, the pattern is still vulnerable to extending down, instead. Regardless, the pattern should resolve Wednesday or by Thursday’s open.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs attacking 1320.00 into Tuesday morning were retraced to retest 1310.00 support, which still needs to hold — preferably while also testing 1313.00 — to maintain the near-term potential for launching an extended upleg. Having retested support from a fresh high, there is no bullish reason to further delay launching an obvious upleg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s retracement back to the 19.85 area was trying to recover 20.00 to maintain the bottoming potential. But that wasn’t the second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed Monday’s surge.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s ranging was relatively narrow and not predictive. No relevant support or resistance was tested intraday.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday night’s dip was a result of having held resistance during both prior sessions’ bounces. Extending higher did create extra room to absorb selling without it doing too much damage to the chart. But 95.00 may be inescapable if Wednesday’s close hasn’t recovered 98.40.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s probe above 4.00 was duplicated Monday night, and then repeated after a pre-open dip. Its reaction down was still testing 3.97, and there is no bullish reason to further delay launching a new upleg if the pattern intends to resolve up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s gap up to chip away further at resistance was constructive to forming a bottom. Immediately attempting to fill the gap back to Thursday’s close would be even more constructive. Gapping down Monday even left outstanding an attraction above back to Friday’s close.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding or still testing 1310.00-1313.00 Friday suggested the pullback was only temporary. Dipping deeper Monday narrowly avoided 1305.00 support and recovered to test 1310.00 resistance. So, the door remains open to resolving up sharply without delay to avoid reversing the trend back down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce back above 20.00 helps to confirm the test of 19.85-19.97 support has held. But a second consecutive higher close Tuesday is needed to reverse the trend up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to support reacted up Monday, but no new traction was gained either way beyond 139-12/139-25.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Extending higher Monday without delay to test 98.35-98.40 resistance was a good second step at forming a bottom, by confirming Friday’s first step which was to rally without delay. But like Friday’s shallow rally, Monday’s bounce also peaked upon touching resistance. Fresh lows can’t yet be discounted.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night to probe above 4.00 and ranging exclusively above prior highs wasn’t sufficient to prove the rally was resuming, or to avoid an intraday dip to 3.92. But its support held, and almost any early strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

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