Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s gap up was another bottoming element, as was its retest of the previous bounce’s 1.3425 bounce limit. That doesn’t equate to yet being a bottom, which would be signaled either by holding a test of the gap back down to Thursday’s 1.3364 close, or else extending higher to close above 1.3443.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Higher highs overnight reacted down sharply Friday, holding the pattern’s 1305.50 pullback limit intraday and bouncing to test 1313.00 is preferable for extending the rally’s momentum. No matter how substantial the overnight high, it did not fulfill the minimum requirement for at least one more higher close as is required already by the confirmed breakout.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh recovery highs overnight up to 20.18 helped to reconnect the pattern with Gold before Friday’s open. But the intraday dip still gravitated back down to 19.97 support.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight probed well above the minimum 139-25 objective to 140-11. Its reaction down touched 139-12 before bouncing back above and around 139-25. Closing Friday above or below 139-25 — decisively, and not still overlapping — would signal the next significant leg.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The overnight attempt to extend Thursday’s shallow strength and form a bottoming pattern was retraced Friday morning to probe back into negative territory. Despite testing 98.50 overnight, intraday action held 97.85 resistance to avoid signaling a rally, keeping alive potential for fresh lows (in case world peace were to break out over the weekend?) for 95.00.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s deep pullback to the 3.85 pullback limit was rejected immediately Friday by gapping up and extending through Wednesday’s 3.93 recovery high close, to attack Thursday morning’s 3.98 high.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s ECB policy statement didn’t spur a recovery, so fresh lows printed by default. The fresh lows didn’t gain traction and extend down, so there remains potential for a bottoming pattern to emerge — which hasn’t yet.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A small post-open delay resolved up to fresh highs testing the 1313.00 buy signal that needs to be maintained through the close. Its test was ongoing into the afternoon, so hesitation or retracement Thursday wouldn’t be bullish.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A rally required confirmation by second consecutive close Thursday, but the session dipped back down to test the 19.97 resistance as support. A bottom may still form, but cannot allow the 19.85 low to be retested first.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip back down to 138-16 support recovered back to Tuesday’s 139-08 test. Avoiding a fresh high close keeps alive the topping pattern, which would trigger a new downleg under 138-25 and confirmed under 138-08.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Avoiding the next lower target at 95.00 required Thursday to recover back above 97.85, or at least to close positive and then extend higher Friday without delay.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reaction to Thursday’s EIA report fell to the 3.85 pullback limit that should hold while awaiting the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least one more higher close. Immediately dipping to support does suggest the eventual recovery will be more productive.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Do you get my Email Alerts? You might not have noticed my pre-open blog post discussing Gold and the long bond’s price action (click here to read it). The sign-up can be found in the blog’s sidebar.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s fresh low underscored that Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” did not equate to a buy signal. But it did create a favorable environment for bottoming, as does avoiding a second lower close Wednesday. And Wednesday’s gap down testing fresh lows was recovered into positive territory, suggesting that a bottom is forming.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The opening rally extended to test 1311.00, maintaining the relevant portion of the recovery. Apart from the pre-open blog post discussion, closing above 1313.00 would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s plunge to 19.85 support did react up to recover 19.97 resistance, which can’t tolerate another dip in order to consider the decline as having ended.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Pre-open probing of 139-06 Wednesday fulfilled the minimum objective of a topping pattern. Its reaction filled the gap back down to what was Tuesday’s resistance at 138-16, as I described in this pre-open blog post. Closing back under 138-08 would essentially begin launching a new downleg, confirmed under 137-25. Back above 138-25 first would target 139-25.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s fresh low suggests the decline will test 95.00 before bottoming, unless 97.85 were recovered without further delay through Thursday’s close.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s higher high up to 3.94 was a second consecutive confirming high above Tuesday’s breakout session. So long as 3.85 holds as support, a rally is underway targeting 4.28-4.34. Thursday’s EIA report must be negotiated first.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Holding the 1.3425 bounce limit test Friday and Monday enabled a retest of last week’s low to hold and to form a bottom. Tuesday’s test began by gapping down, which also helps to expend more selling pressure without refueling.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite already having retraced 61.8% of the recovery up to test 1296.00 resistance, and despite trying overnight to resume the rally, Tuesday only retraced the recent recovery further to its 1281.00 origin at 1283.30.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline’s 20.30 target was exceeded Tuesday by a deep drop to fresh lows testing 19.85 support by a nickel. The level has potential to form a bottom, but probably not without holding as support through Wednesday, too.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs depended upon NOT delaying the rally any further Tuesday, but the morning was already dipping to test 137-25 support. Russian troops amassing on the Ukraine border triggered a flight-to-safety that touched the recent 138-16 prior high. Having touched it, not closing above it would be another version of delaying the rally.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Recovering from a dip back under 97.85 Tuesday would have signaled a new rally leg underway, but the dip back under 97.85 extended to retest the 97.10 target by a dime. That opportunity for a low was missed.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Perhaps the past couple of weeks of slowing momentum and failed/retraced drops has finally been enough accumulation to launch a recovery leg. Tuesday morning’s early probe above the 3.85 signal to fresh highs testing 3.92, which was largely maintained.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The 1.3425 bounce limit tested and held on Friday continued being tested and holding on Monday. A fresh high above 1.3450 would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but last week’s low should be tested first.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing but not recovering 1296.00 resistance Friday reacted down Monday to test 1286.50. That’s a 61.8% retracement of the surge from Thursday’s test of the decline’s 1284.50 target down to 1280.50. A retest of 1284.50 should hold if a rally intends to begin without probing sharply lower lows first.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite touching and holding its 20.30 target Friday, Monday’s session only extended the decline, testing 20.20. Bounces now have room up to 20.35 before even suggesting momentum may reverse up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to 138-00 support didn’t extend down before probing above Friday’s high to 138-16. And 138-00 wasn’t rejected at the close. But the potential for fresh highs above 139-06 depends mostly on next delaying the rally effort.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 97.85 bounce limit that held Friday was recovered Monday, up to the decline’s original 98.40 target. That suggests the decline’s momentum has lapsed. It’s not yet a buy signal, but closing higher Tuesday after an interim dip to 97.85 would be very bullish.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Another fresh low Monday was recovered back to the 3.85 resistance whose recovery would at least start to signal momentum reversing back up. The intraday price action is accumulative, but that’s irrelevant without actually triggering an upleg.

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