Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Could Natty Gas be any more obvious that it doesn’t intend to break through recent lows that have been tested, retested, and re-retested? Yes, by actually rallying. Not extending sharply higher Tuesday would be suspicious.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Overnight strength into Monday’s open nevertheless reversed to range narrowly sideways, still absorbing last week’s volatility.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Overnight weakness into Monday’s open nevertheless recovered to range narrowly sideways, still absorbing last week’s volatility.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s gaps up were producing another gap up the following day, compensating for not extending higher intraday. But Monday’s immediate recovery from Friday’s depressed session barely registered any volatility intraday. None of which is a sell signal, and only further suggesting that the rally’s sponsorship is waning. A failed intraday probe of fresh highs may still be needed before another downleg can begin.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down extended momentarily to test 19.55 before recovering back into positive territory. But the recovery never converted into resuming the rally, which still undermines the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s initial weakness wasn’t insignificant, but recovering it back into positive territory (on the Retail Sales miss) wasn’t impressive, as the balance of the session ranged narrowly under 135-00 resistance.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s attack on Friday’s low reacted back up Monday to retest the rally’s 106.35 target. The 103.30 pullback objective wasn’t touched, so rallying prematurely would not be as reliable, but could still extend to fresh highs targeting 110.65-110.75.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Yet another dip into the 3.55-3.60 support range held. And produced an obvious reaction back up. Monday’s support test was of a new character, both dipping and recovering sharply intraday — testing the 3.73 buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s pattern this week of gap after gap after gap has all been gaps up. Until the end, which gapped down. A chink in the armor?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having dipped into Thursday’s close, the 83.33 level attracted price back up into Friday’s open. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, with no active signal.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s late surge off of 1.3020 support was retraced entirely into Friday’s open. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways within Thursday morning’s range. There is no active signal, but a retest of Wednesday’s 1.3200 high should hold and reverse back down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite gapping down, Friday’s open held a test of 1268.00 and 1271.50 support. The balance of the session ranged narrowly in negative territory. A retest of 1268.00-1271.50 support should extend back down to 1249.00, and potentially begin another downleg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down under Thursday’s intraday range did not completely reject the test of 20.00 resistance. But its immediate recovery may be the only way to avoid a deeper dip targeting 19.30, or even fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday morning’s bounce to 135-00 resistance was retraced to unchanged, as the attraction to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s gap continues to inhibit a recovery.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down to 104.30 was itself retraced back up to 106.05 Friday, and could test 106.25-106.75 before the rally abandons a deeper correction to 102.45 or 103.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s retest of 3.55-3.60 support was rejected again, but Friday’s surge stopped short of the 3.73 buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Did extreme volatility in reaction to FOMC and Bernanke shake loose some patterns, or complete their trending? Wednesday night’s extremes might be retested soon, but exceeding them might take quite some time.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s night’s plunge to 82.60 nevertheless recovered to range around 83.33 Thursday. Extending down without a corrective bounce first would be difficult.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
An overnight surge to 1.3210 was pushed back down to consolidate Thursday at 1.3020 support. Recovering 1.3020 would have signaled the decline had ended, but retracing the excessive overnight rally back down to 1.3020 makes that unclear. A rally effort Friday would be suspicious.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Now we know why despite Wednesday repeatedly failing to extend any one of its probes above Tuesday’s highs, negative territory was never probed. Optimism remained very much alive and well, reacting up sharply overnight on Bernanke. The fourth consecutive session of ranging flat-to-lower from a gap up still undermines the gaps’ cumulative gains. Back under 1271.50 and 1268.00 would signal momentum reversing back down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction to Bernanke only retested last week’s test of the 20.00 area Thursday. But if not rejected through Friday’s close, there is room for fresh highs up to 20.88.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up above Tuesday’s highs ranged around 134-04 intraday, absorbing the afternoon’s 30-year auction. Absent a second consecutive higher confirming close Friday, the gap left outstanding back down to Wednesday’s 132-28 close will need to be filled, probably on the way down to fresh lows.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Probing higher overnight to 107.45 didn’t change the likelihood for testing the 106.35 target to produce a pullback targeting 103.30 “lower prior highs,” which has so far been retraced down to 104.31.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
EIA prevented a recovery attempt back above 3.70 that was instead reversed back down to 3.55-3.60 support. Closing back above 3.73 would still trigger a rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil met its outstanding target at Wednesday’s high, and in a very aggressive fashion. Extending higher without delay would start to suggest a much more substantial rally underway. Meanwhile, the natural reaction would be to at least back-and-fill down to recent support.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Slightly probing above Tuesday’s high would have been optimal before reversing down. Wednesday reversed down sharply anyway. The rally’s 83.33 target was not even attacked, so a little more weakness Thursday is likely.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A slightly lower low would have been optimal before trying to reverse up. Wednesday reversed up anyway, already attacking the decline’s original target at 1.2955 as resistance. Extending higher to close above 1.3020 Thursday would signal that a bottom had already formed.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s third consecutive gap up was the first not to probe well above the prior session highs. Much of the session ranged around Tuesday’s highs before dipping to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. A spike up to fresh highs above 1264.00 on FOMC Minutes was retraced back to the spike’s 1246.00 origin. Closing negative would have been optimal for signaling both that buyers were done and that sellers were already retaking control.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s ranging was choppy, and not at all trending, despite the volatility surrounding it. Fresh lows should still be tested before a rally effort can be very credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s slide to 133-30 reacted up on FOMC Minutes, then extended to fresh lows at 132-21, presumably on the way down to 128-10/128-14, so long as 133-04 holds as resistance.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday extended up aggressively — spiking — fulfilling the appropriate behavior if momentum to the rally’s 106.35 target was still intact. The target was met Wednesday afternoon up to 106.66, with the prior two sessions’ 103.30 “lower prior highs” now being likely to attract price down for a test as support.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A surge to fresh highs above Monday’s 3.76 high before Wednesday’s open was retained only enough to produce a gap up to Tuesday’s 3.71 high, which soon stumbled back to Tuesday’s 3.66 close. A fresh low first would have been likelier to extend higher intraday. Reaction to Thursday’s EIA report may continue to make that clear.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s second consecutive gap up formed a second consecutive session whose close essentially equated to its open. No net intraday improvement undermines the rally’s momentum, reflecting weak-handed impatient buyers sponsoring a temporary bounce.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s shallow inside day was incapable of reversing momentum down. The trend extended up Tuesday to fresh highs attacking 85.00, next targeting 86.10 so long as pullbacks now hold 84.15 as support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s shallow inside day was incapable of reversing momentum up. The trend extended down Tuesday to fresh lows attacking 1.2740-1.2750, next targeting 1.2575 so long as pullbacks now hold 1.2875 as resistance.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Potential for a bigger bounce targeting 1250.00 was quickly fulfilled overnight, and Tuesday’s session ranged choppily around it. The gap back to Friday’s close was filled, and the rubber band has been stretched tighter without buyers yet gaining any traction for their effort.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging Tuesday above 19.00 was similar to an “inside day” that should still resolve down to test 18.50-18.55.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s recovery from fresh lows had extended higher intraday, and only narrowly Tuesday around unchanged. Not immediately extending higher undermines whether momentum has actually reversed up. Not immediately extending above 133-28 Wednesday — and preferably also above 134-06 — would suggest a corrective bounce was ending, resuming the decline, next targeting 128-10/128-14.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s threat to the rally’s momentum was no difference Tuesday, which again pierced a fresh high. But Tuesday ended in rally mode, instead of only printing highs overnight. The pattern cannot tolerate much if any retracement, and should extend up aggressive — probably spiking — if the rally’s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap under 3.72 extended down another dime to nearly fill the gap back to Friday’s close. Coming only optimistically close doesn’t equate to filling the gap. Recovering from a slightly lower low Wednesday would be bullish.

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