Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold rallied sharply Sunday night, but really not at all after Monday’s open. Despite the degree of the overnight rally and not yet rejecting it, it’s difficult to give its sponsorship much credibility for more than a corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s “inside day” trended with too shallow of a slope — if it trended intraday, at all — for there to be any new bias.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s gap up extended too slightly for its sponsorship to be considered strong-handed.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s probe above the 1226.50 bounce limit extended to 1237.50 after Monday’s open. Its intraday dip to 1229.00 was recovered entirely, but only to range around the opening gap’s print. Closing any higher would suggest at least a bigger bounce underway targeting 1250.00. Otherwise, back under 1226.50 would resume the decline.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Although Monday’s open gapped up above 18.88 resistance that had restrained Friday’s ranging, the balance of the session only ranged narrowly, its lower-end supported by 19.00. But that wasn’t enough to invalidate Friday’s break, which remains intact, albeit targeting only 18.50-18.55.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s gap up nonetheless reversed down to probe under the 132-16 target that was met Friday. The new trend low was recovered to close well into positive territory testing 133-16, forming a bullish Pivot Reversal, and above 132-26/133-00 to suggest the drop had ended. Not extending higher immediately Tuesday would next target 128-10/128-14 below.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s rally to fresh highs attacking 104.00 was reversed in time to gap down Monday, but the balance of the session only fluctuated narrowly around unchanged. The rally’s momentum is in jeopardy since there was no second consecutive higher close.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Last week’s trapped shorts were squeezed at Monday’s opening gap up from 3.55-3.60 to test 3.73 resistance. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm 3.96 and 4.10 in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight With Gold’s corrective bounce clearly having ended, can the outstanding move to new lows now develop quickly?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging around 83.33 Wednesday had undermined the rally’s momentum, but it wasn’t a sell signal, which the ECB announcement exploited in sparking a surge up to 84.15 that extended higher to attack 84.95 on the Employment Situation report.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging down to the lower-end of the decline’s 1.2955-1.3020 target Wednesday could have rallied by week’s end, but the alternative was to have already extended down sharply. The ECB announcement produced the latter, dropping to 1.2875, and then extending to 1.2808 on the Employment Situation report.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite holding the 1240.00 and then 1248.00 pullback limits, the corrective bounce never resumed to fulfill the potential of extending $4 higher to 1271.50. A drift lower to 1240.00 broke sharply lower on Friday’s Employment Situation report test 1207.00, resuming the decline targeting new lows, so long as 1226.50 isn’t recovered.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down from 19.70 quickly round 18.80, and spent the balance of the session ranging narrowly just under it as resistance. The drop could extend to 18.50-18.55 before signaling a bigger decline underway

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming slightly Wednesday from what had become an extended narrowing range made the pattern likelier to break sharply lower first. The drop extended on Friday’s Employment Situation report to fulfill the outstanding objective for fresh lows at 132-16. The drop has room for noise down to 131-24 before signaling it is extending to 128-10/128-14. Closing above 132-26/133-00 would signal the drop had ended.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s gap up to the 101.75 target son extened to fresh highs testing 103.30. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the 106.35 target is in-play.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still testing 3.55-3.60 after having an opportunity to extend higher above 3.73 doesn’t yet undermine the recovery potential, and does add that much more credibility to fresh highs being able to extend higher on trapped shorts.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s target was met overnight and held a test as resistance intraday Wednesday. But not reacting down by Friday morning could extend the rally well into next week.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s ranging around 83.33 failed to confirm Tuesday’s close above it as a breakout. That is not a sell signal, but it undermines the rally’s momentum.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Despite probing lower overnight, Wednesday’s intraday low held the lower-end of the decline’s 1.2955-1.3020 target. That is the range for noise around recent lows, an inflection point of sorts. Not already rallying by week’s end would be likely to already have extended down sharply.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s dip to the 1240.00 pullback limit recovered back to 1248.00, probably unable to tolerate much delay in extending to the 1271.50 corrective bounce target if the bounce hasn’t ended already.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s strength only consolidated under 20.00 resistance, forming a Complex Ascending Triangle. Its probe of fresh highs — presumably accompanying Gold’s own fresh high described above — would be likely to react down sharply

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The extended narrowing range above 135-00 extended a little further Wednesday ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. If anything, it firmed slightly, making the likelier scenario to react down sharply first. Regardless, the pattern’s first trending attempt is likely to be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Egypt’s approaching deadline drove price higher to test its 101.75 target up to 102.18 Tuesday night. Its reaction down to 100.50 Wednesday didn’t recover enough to signal the 106.35 target is also in-play, but neither was the rally’s momentum rejected. Pullbacks have room down to 99.55.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s EIA report (released one day early due to this week’s holiday) was absorbed to close back above 3.62, maintaining potential for extending to 3.73 whose recovery would target 4.10.

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Today’s Highlight Can Crude Oil extend its rally now that its minimum objective was met?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Rejecting Tuesday’s gap up above the rally’s 83.33 target immediately at Wednesday’s open would form an Island Reversal, likely to extend down at least temporarily.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s biased-up inside day was likely to fail, which Tuesday’s drop back into the 1.2955-1.3020 target range fulfilled. Trending is now likely to resume, and the first break beyond 1.2955-1.3075 is likely to extend in that direction.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending to 1267.00 was enough for a reaction down to test the 1240.00 pullback limit. Back above 1248.50 would put into play the 1271.50 target.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip extended further down to test 19.30, still requiring a recovery above 19.70 to trigger a rally.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yet another day of consolidating narrowly above 135-00 and still no retest of recent lows. The extended narrowing range suggests the first trending attempt will be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally extended to its minimum objective of filling the gap outstanding to the 98.45-99.00 gap, and through it to test 99.85. Potential for extending higher to 101.75 and 106.35 remains alive so long as pullbacks now hold 99.15 as support.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up to the 3.62 buy signal soon extended higher to test 3.66, still needing to recover 3.73 to signal a new rally leg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold didn’t wait for a retest of last week’s low before rallying sharply Monday. That can extend a little higher, but it undermines recovery’s durability not to have fully formed the bottom.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down trended down intraday, but only slightly, and only within Friday’s range. The biased inside day setup tends to resolve in the trend’s original direction, at least to retest the recent extreme.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s gap up trended up intraday, but only slightly, and only within Friday’s range. The biased inside day setup tends to resolve in the trend’s original direction, at least to retest the recent extreme.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s open gapped up to and through the 1232.00 buy signal, and extended sharply higher, putting into play 1271.50 so long as 1248.50 and 1240.00 hold as support. Friday’s 1197.40 opening gap must still be retested.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Last week’s outperformance disappeared Monday as fresh highs up to 20.00 resistance reacted back down to almost unchanged at 19.50, while Gold soared. Closing above 19.70 would extend the rally, which must otherwise retrace to test 18.75.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite still holding above 135-00 and price firming, no rally was yet launched, and none is signaled. The ineffectual optimism ahead of this week’s econ reports is starting to become a bigger concern, since little time is remaining for a bottom to form.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally resumed Sunday night to help Monday’s open gap up to probe fresh highs testing 98.30. A brief dip was recovered to retest the morning’s high. Extending higher without delay would be likely to trend through the 98.45-99.00 objective.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight were recovered in time for Monday to fluctuate around unchanged, still needing to recover 3.62 before even attacking the 3.73 buy signal.

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