Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Silver outperforming Gold recently became much more pronounced Friday, as Silver barely probed a fresh low while Gold could hardly stop. One more retest of their lows would be ideal for forming a bottom.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s fresh high up to 83.60 spent the afternoon ranging around Thursday’s 83.43 high, so essentially still testing the rally’s 83.33 target without exceeding it enough for higher targets to be put into play.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Perhaps it was only a “warning shot across the bow,” but Friday’s open gapped up and away from the decline’s 1.2955-1.3020 target that was tested during the two prior sessions. A reversal back down filled the gap from Thursday’s close and dipped back into 1.2955-1.3020. No lower target was put into play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight spike down to 1179.40 bounced $20 before reversing into Friday’s open for testing the actual 1190.00 objective. Its recovery into positive territory above 1212.50 retraced Thursday’s last downleg from 1226.50. Back under 1204.50 would target Friday’s 1197.40 opening gap down. Closing first above 1232.00 would signal a bigger corrective bounce underway first.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Recent outperformance vs. Gold continued Friday, certainly more pronounced as Silver surged through 18.88 resistance to 19.55. The bounce still has room up to 20.00 before signaling a bigger rally underway. Back under 19.00 would target a retest of 18.75 before completing a bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Poking above 135-00 had not generated enthusiasm for the two prior sessions, and neither did Friday which ranged narrowly. Pre-open action had tested 136-04 and reacted down to 134-20. Any lower low should begin the retest of the prior Friday’s 133-12 opening gap.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally extended overnight up to 97.80 but only ranged sideways intraday Friday around 97.00. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks hold any test of 96.00.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s test of the 3.55-3.60 target area was extended intraday Friday to test 3.53 before reacting back up to 3.62. Still testing unchanged levels within the 3.55-3.60 area prevented putting into play any lower targets.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s surge is confirming its rally has begun playing out, while Natty Gas probed fresh lows to fulfill the downleg’s objective.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s probe above the rally’s 83.35 target did not extend. An immediate reversal down would be credible for gaining traction. Extending the rally would require two consecutive higher closes.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The decline’s 1.2955-1.3020 target continued to hold Thursday. Its reaction up was too ineffectual not to expect more basing before any rally could be credible.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A bounce held 1237.00 resistance before extending to new lows under 1200.00 Thursday afternoon. If not absorbed without further delay, the next lower objective of 1190.00 would be in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another bounce to 18.88 resistance was rejected Thursday by a drop back to the 18.35 low. Closing back above 19.00 would now suffice to signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s probe back above 135-00 resistance had better luck than Wednesday, extending to fresh relative highs at 136-00. But the probe was relatively subdued, undermining its ability to avoid another downdraft.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s brief dip to 93.70 had required extending up almost immediately Thursday to avoid a more bearish turn. The surge through 96.00 to 97.40 suggests the gap back to 98.45-99.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s new low fully tested the outstanding 3.55-3.62 objective, which is capable of ending the decline. Closing back above 3.70 would trigger at least a steep short-squeeze.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Energies like Crude Oil and Natural Gas have not begun trending up. But they have reached stages where rallies must begin without delay. Otherwise, Crude Oil will likely begin another downdraft, while Natural Gas extends the downdraft it is already in.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having avoided a reaction down Tuesday from retesting Monday’s highs, the rally extended Wednesday to attack its 83.35 target within 10 cents.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having avoided a reaction up Tuesday from retesting Monday’s lows, the decline extended Wednesday to begin testing its 1.2955-1.3020 target.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
While any sort of rally was still premature when there remained potential for fresh lows to test 1262.00, Tuesday night’s plunge down to 1223.20 certainly was not part of a bottoming pattern. The 1248.00 corrective bounce limit was tested into the open, and largely retraced into the afternoon. Closing above 1254.00 would signal a corrective bounce underway targeting 1279.00, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 18.88-19.00 objective was finally met Tuesday night, and then broken sharply on the way down to 18.36. The reaction up held 18.88-19.00 before reversing back down to test 18.65. Back above 19.25 would signal momentum reversing up, but there is no requirement to recover.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 135-00 bounce limit was tested through Wednesday morning and then again in the afternoon following a dip to 134-09. Trending higher Thursday without delay would be credible for launching a multi-point corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday morning’s deep pullback to 93.70 was retraced entirely back to its 95.55 origin. The slingshot effect now requires almost immediately extending up through 96.00 and to fill the gap back up to 98.45-99.00, unless something much more bearish is developing.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After gapping up slightly, Wednesday’s session was spent entirely in positive territory. The gap back to Tuesday’s close was filled, but only 38.2% of Tuesday’s drop was retraced. The “ineffectual optimism” is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, especially ahead of Thursday’s EIA data. At least Tuesday’s breakout close wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive lower close, so a new low testing 3.55-3.62 would be credible for ending the decline.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight With the gap above almost requiring that it be filled, Crude Oil ignoring it Tuesday is potentially bullish, from a contrarian perspective.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, Monday’s opening gap attracted price back up to fill it Tuesday. Monday’s highs held, but their test didn’t trigger a reaction down, suggesting the rally intends to resume.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having filled the gap back up to Friday’s close, Monday’s opening gap attracted price back down to fill it Tuesday. Monday’s lows held, but their test didn’t launch a recovery, suggesting the drop intends to resume.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ranging remains centered around the decline’s sub-1290.00 objective, likely to probe lower lows temporarily before launching a corrective bounce targeting 1322.00 and 1333.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up and inside day did not change the potential for extending the decline to fresh lows at 18.88-19.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having filled the gap back up to Friday’s 135-01 close, Monday’s 133-12 opening gap down attracted price back down Tuesday to 133-29. The gap itself should still be filled, but back above 135-00 could produce a bigger corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still testing 96.00 Tuesday instead of probing any higher, despite the attraction above back to the gap at 98.45-99.00, reflects “ineffectual pessimism” that should help an upleg to essentially slice through the gap to fresh highs.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s dip that filled an outstanding gap below was only bullish if a reaction had recovered resistance. But there was no reaction Tuesday other than to extend the drop to fresh lows. The next opportunity for a bottom is at 3.55-3.62.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s relative calm compared to other market Sunday night and Monday morning suggest that it cannot attract new selling sponsorship. So, it should outperform on any whiff of commodities rallying.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The rally extended higher initially Monday, but eventually retraced to unchanged. Sellers gained no traction, and the open’s gap up above was left outstanding, so no sell signal was created or triggered.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The decline extended lower initially Monday, but eventually retraced to unchanged. Buyers gained no traction, and the open’s gap down below was left outstanding, so no buy signal was created or triggered.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight highs testing 1300.00 were reversed into negative territory before Monday’s open, eventually testing 1275.00, as the wide volatility in this area becomes more entrenched.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline’s 19.37 target was retested Monday, and produced a shallower bounce than last week. There remains potential for probing fresh lows down to 18.88-19.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The drop extended down sharply overnight to test and retest the 133-24 target, which was later probed down to 133-04. It was all recovered, filling the gap back to Friday’s 135-01 close. Its resistance held through the close, and the gap back down to Monday’s 133-12 open remains outstanding to attract price down before a durable bottom can form.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday morning’s intraday weakness held Friday’s ~93.15 lows after recovering from under 92.70 overnight. Ranging narrowly through the noon hour produced a bounce to 95.60, attacking the 96.00 buy signal. The rally should extend higher without much delay if a new downleg will be avoided.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s downtrending session filled the gap back to the prior Friday’s 2.76 close, neutralizing its attraction below. Recovering to close positive after probing fresh lows intraday Tuesday would help to form a bottom.

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