Daily Spot

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Today’s Highlight  So much for Crude Oil leading a commodity recovery? Not necessarily. While Thursday’s drop did extend Friday, at least sellers were dispatched. Meanwhile, other markets only firmed, expending buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The rally’s 82.75 target was attacked up to 82.70 Friday. The second consecutive lower close under prior lows confirms momentum reversed down. Pullbacks should now hold 82.10 to maintain the rally.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s dip to 1.3105 now requires bounces to hold any test of 1.3220 to maintain this downleg’s momentum.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday night’s test of 1269.00 was recovered to attack 1302.00. Narrow intraday ranging around 1290.00 suggests that a recovery is not forming. A fresh low at 1262.00 can’t be discounted. But back above 1308.00 would target 1321.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 19.37 target was tested Thursday night, producing a bounce testing 20.05. And it could extend to 20.20 before suggesting a bottom has formed, or that fresh lows targeting 18.88-19.00 can be avoided.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 136-30 bounce limit was attacked to within a quarter-point Thursday night and by Friday’s opening gap up. But selling resumed immediately and extended the decline to 134-29. Now holding 135-24 would maintain the drop’s momentum and potential down to 134-16 and 133-24.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s drop to attack 93.00 extended Thursday’s steep break from recently testing 99.00. Back above 96.00 would still start signaling new highs in-play, and back above 95.20 would target 96.00.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pullback extended down Friday, testing 3.80, and now needing a close above 3.87 to signal momentum reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil had sat out much of the other coverage’s volatility through Wednesday. Thursday’s reaction down has either begun another downleg, or else refueled buyers to resume the rally to fresh highs.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s break above the 81.00 buy signal extended to 82.32 Thursday. Pullbacks must hold 81.72-81.82 to maintain the rally’s momentum next targeting 82.75 and 83.35.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday extended the drop from 1.3400 down through 1.3167. Bounces must hold 1.3270-1.3280 to maintain the decline targeting 1.2955-1.3020.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction down from 1373.00 to probe under the 1351.00 target barely hesitated before extending to the next lower objective, new lows under 1290.00. Pre-open tests produced a bounce to the new bounce limit at 1307.70 before resolving down. There are not yet any lower calculable targets, so near-term price action should be defined as ranging around 1290.00, with room for noise down to either 1279.00 or 1262.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s plunge is next targeting 19.37 and 18.88-19.00 so long as bounces now hold 20.20 as resistance.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The drop extended down overnight to probe the next objective at 136-16 down to 135-26. Its bounce up to 137-00 was retraced entirely down to 135-20. Back above 136-30 would target 137-14 and 138-00. The decline’s momentum otherwise remains intact.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally never managed to close above its 98.45 target before getting caught in the reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement. A pullback overnight into Thursday tested 95.00. Back above 96.25 would resume the rally targeting 101.25 and 106.50. Closing under 94.65 would signal the trend had reversed down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap down and tumble on the EIA report may have corrected the rally that got stuck Wednesday by only testing Tuesday’s 3.95 high. But the rally cannot afford to hesitate resuming.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight FOMC both inhibited price action, and then exacerbated it. Ultimately, many prices abruptly got in-line with their patterns. Most notable were Gold, Currencies and the long-bond. But not Crude Oil, which has to raise questions whether the pattern is on-track.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s pre-FOMC probing of prior lows still hadn’t gained traction before suddenly reversing up sharply from 80.65 through the 81.00 buy signal to 81.65, above the past week’s highs.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s probe above 1.3333 to 1.3400 was rejected abruptly on Wednesday’s FOMC news back down under the past week’s lows to 1.3270, reversing the trend down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up tested 1373.00 through the close, before the FOMC news triggered a plunge back under the the 1368.50 bounce limit to new lows under the 1351.00 target, and under 1340.00. The drop targeting new lows under 1290.00 remains in-play so long as 1354.00 isn’t recovered through Thursday’s close — which is a very real possibility, having overshot the target only after regular trading hours.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s flat narrow ranging plunged to fresh lows testing 21.20 after the FOMC news. Its new low close makes an immediate bottom unlikely.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 138-30 61.8% retracement of last week’s corrective bounce from 137-25 was retested Wednesday by a 1-point dip ahead of the FOMC news, which triggered the drop’s extension back through last week’s lows to test 137-16. I’s vulnerable to extending lower Thursday to 136-20.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming into Wednesday’s open tested 99.20. Extending almost any higher would next target 101.25 and then potentially 106.50, so long as 97.50 holds any test as support.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s gap up to Tuesday’s 3.95 high was not rejected, and closing above 4.00 would next target 4.15.

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Today’s Highlight Gold’s tumble Tuesday suggest that new lows are not too far away.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday afternoon’s fresh low followed the morning’s recovery attempt. Back above 81.00 would signal another recovery attempt underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s fresh highs testing 1.3425 can’t afford to hesitate extending higher, and must extend higher aggressively, or else back under 1.3355 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s break initially tested 1373.00-1377.00, but then extended down sharply to fresh lows testing 1360.00. The decline is targeting 1351.00, so long as bounces now hold 1368.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s mid-morning drop attacked prior lows down to 21.45 before bouncing. The low was too shallow to serve as the bottom, and the bounce was too shallow to reject it.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from 140-25 extended to 138-28 Tuesday, retracing 61.8% of the rally from last week’s lows., then bouncing to 139-26. Trending any higher should be done aggressively to form a new upleg targeting 142-04. Otherwise, back under 138-24 would target a retest of last week’s 137-25 low.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Retesting the 98.10 target attacked Sunday night’s 98.70 high, yet to extended higher. But not yet reversing down makes fresh highs likely before any durable reversal down could gain traction.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday extended higher early to help confirm Monday’s probe above last week’s 3.85 high intended to confirm with a second consecutive higher close. It extended to 3.95, and reversed it all. Closing above 3.90 gives the rally a benefit of the doubt for now targeting 4.00 so long as pullbacks hold 3.83 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natty Gas didn’t wait for probing its lows before threatening to end the week sharply higher. Of course, Monday’s surge might have borrowed too heavily from improving later in the week, without first trapping new shorts, so a rally isn’t yet assured.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Despite Monday morning’s tending to duplicate Friday’s bias, prior lows held as support. It’s not a buy signal, but it does undermine the decline.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Still ranging narrowly around 1.3333 Monday, while aslo fulfilling the likely probes of fresh highs. Back under 1.3303 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s dip back down under 1383.00 helps to confirm that Friday’s surge didn’t gain traction, more so since it didn’t extend immediately this week above 1393.50. But extending down forcibly under 1377.00 and 1373.00 would be more helpful to resolving the pattern down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not extending higher immediately Monday kept alive the attraction back down to 21.60 and lower, which Monday’s gap down quickly fulfilled.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from last week’s 140-25 target extended Monday to within a few ticks of its 139-22 signal. There is no new pattern.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 98.10 target did not immediately reject price down, so it will likely be exceeded by extending the rally to 100.80 and 102.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 97.05.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up Monday above 3.80 already suggested (in the strongest of terms) that Friday’s break under 3.77 wasn’t going to test new lows at 3.55-3.60. Extending higher to close above last week’s 3.85 high then signaled momentum reversing up. But pullbacks must hold 3.83 and Tuesday must extend higher to confirm the reversal. Otherwise, closing back under 3.80 — or just dipping intraday — would reject Monday’s bounce in a very big way.

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