Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The faster Natty Gas can neutralize its attractions below at new lows, the greater its potential for ending the week sharply higher.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s opening strength was reversed to probe another fresh low, which is much more credible than Thursday’s low. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday’s bias on Monday mornings. The restrained selling pressure into the weekend suggests that resuming it coming out of the weekend would be aggressive.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Still ranging around 1.3333 resistance for so long again suggests at least an obligatory probe of fresh highs, perhaps only that.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s drop back down to 1377.00 was retraced to test 1385.00-1390.00 resistance. The drop must resume immediately for the pattern to remain bearish. A bullish resolution here would likely gap up above 1393.50 and extend higher.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having neutralized the attraction below 21.60 Thursday, Friday’s close above 21.80 is trying to seal a bottom. The open actually gapped to 21.80, creating a gap below at Thursday’s close, which does undermine the recovery attempt. It must extend higher immediately if valid.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The detour targeting 140-24 had developed already overnight, but extending higher intraday to 140-28 was still retraced down to 140-10, and lower. Back under 139-22 would start to signal a retest of the lows underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally extended to finally fulfill its long outstanding 98.10 objective. Momentum remains intact to extend higher so long as any pullback Monday morning is short and shallow.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s neutralized attractions above rejected price back down sharply Friday by gapping through 3.77, attacking recent lows down to 3.72, presumably on the way to 3.55-3.60.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s reaction down Thursday was the minimum requirement to maintain the pattern’s bearish potential. Sellers don’t have much time to rest on their laurels if the reversal down is valid.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s probes of fresh lows were only momentary, and Wednesday’s lows essentially contained Thursday’s session. So, it is difficult to label it as a confirming second consecutive lower close. An immediate recovery attempt would be credible, but not signaled.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
More testing of the rally’s 1.3333 objective extended through Thursday. Not that it wasn’t volatile — up to 1.3391 overnight and down to 1.3278 intraday. Retesting the overnight high would be usual before a durable downleg could begin.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not closing back under 1385.00 Wednesday, its surge to 1390.00-1393.50 resistance required closing back under 1377.00 Thursday in order to be invalidated. Thursday’s open gapped down to 1385.00 and extended lower to 1377.00. Then bounces held 1385.00 before extending down to 1373.00, so that 1377.00 was being tested as resistance in to the close. The decline should not delay resuming Friday morning, or else it must resume with a vengeance Sunday night.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce to 21.80 resistance was rejected immediately. Thursday’s 21.50 low retested Tuesday’s 21.57 opening gap to neutralize its attraction, having probed “higher prior lows” in the interim. Closing any lower Friday would signal the decline was extending. But now closing above 21.80 could seal a bottom

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s weak auction barely affected the gap up that had been testing the 139-22 resistance, which had attracted the two prior sessions. The outstanding retest of 138-05 and potentially fresh lows at 137-30 might be delayed by a detour to 140-16/140-24.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s recovery to 96.00 extended the narrow sideways ranging sideways Thursday. Any early trending Friday would be likely to extend intraday.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap down and fresh low down to 3.71 reversed up sharply on EIA, back through Wednesday’s 3.77 close to 3.85. That also filled another gap at 3.80, and tested week-old “higher prior lows”. Back under 3.77 would target the decline’s outstanding 3.55-3.60 objective. Otherwise, extending above 3.88 could also test 4.00.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Perhaps it is only political unrest in Turkey that motivated Gold’s bounce Wednesday. It was left in a make-it or break-it position that must at least close sufficiently lower Thursday to maintain the bearish pattern targeting new lows. Meanwhile, Crude Oil has an opportunity to break higher to levels not seen in weeks or months, but its recovery can’t tolerate much more delay.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Last week’s 81.00 lows were probed as expected down to 80.75. Back above 81.25 would signal the trend reversing up, especially if not initiated by gapping up.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’sgap down reversed up to test the 1.3333 target up to 1.3361, but 1.3333 held as resistance. Back under the morning’s 1.3265 low would trigger at least a corrective dip.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite only testing 1377.00 resistance at Tuesday’s close, Wednesday probed sharply higher to test 1390.00 and 1393.50. They were both being tested through the close. Closing under 1385.00 Wednesday would have sufficed to signal the surge was absorbed. Alternatively, closing under 1377.00 Thursday would be needed for the decline’s sponsorship to compensate for its delay.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce filled the gap back up to 21.92 and spent the day again ranging around the decline’s 21.80 target, without signaling any accumulation or buy signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s 139-22 high already had filled the gap back to Friday’s close. Wednesday’s slightly higher high chipped away at its resistance, without reacting down under support. Any higher high Thursday would be credible for extending higher, although by how much is dubious ahead of the afternoon’s 30-year auction.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
96.00 resistance was probed throughout Wednesday morning. So long as 95.65 once again holds as support, extending the recovery to test 98.10 remains likely.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday firmed back to Tuesday morning’s highs, and to Tuesday morning’s “higher prior lows,” leaving outstanding a test of fresh lows under 3.70 — probably down to 3.55-3.60 — before a durable recovery could form.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s test of major support Monday was made painfully obvious to Tuesday morning’s sellers, who were squeezed 2 points off the low and well back into positive territory.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The attraction below at 81.33 was fulfilled Tuesday morning. But not very constructively. The open’s gap down was shallower, and didn’t extend down until after filling the gap back to Monday’s 81.65 close. That neutralized its attraction above, and last week’s 81.00 lows should still be probed.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s retest of last week’s ~1.3305 high still stopped short of testing the 1.3333 objective.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight plunge to new lows extended lower Tuesday to test 1365.00. Friday’s 1377.00 “higher prior low” was tested as resistance. Recovering it through two consecutive closes would rob this downleg of its momentum. Meanwhile, at least 1351.00 remains in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two days of ranging around the drop’s 21.80 target allowed the drop’s momentum to remain intact. Tuesday’s gap down extended to 21.40 and bounced back up to Friday’s 21.65 “higher prior lows.” Closing lower again Wednesday would confirm 20.20 is in-play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down that was spent exclusively in negative territory could not prevent a new low Tuesday targeting 137-30 or 137-18. But it made a new low likely to recover into positive territory. Tuesday’s pre-open dip to 137-25 reacted back up 2 points through Monday’s 138-27 close to 139-22. This is another opportunity to begin bottoming, but Tuesday’s 138-05 opening gap will need to be retested, and held.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s pullback extended down Tuesday well under the 95.65 pullback limit to test 94.30 support. The reaction up from there was held back at 95.00 until a late surge through it. Extending back above 95.65 would resume the rally next targeting 98.10.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh low did what Friday could not, producing a second consecutive lower close. This all but requires testing at least 3.55-3.60 before any bottoming potential.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond fulfilled its retest of prior lows Monday. Unlike recent dips along the way down, no sponsorship was attracted for even a bounce. Lower lows are likely before a rally would be credible, but a reversal setup should not be too much further away.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s probe above 82.00 ended no better than Friday’s inability even to touch it. An attraction below at 81.33 probably needs to be neutralized before the rally can extend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s 1.2344 close recovered Monday to test Friday’s 1.3263 gap up. Friday’s high should next be probed back up to 1.3333. It should be obvious there almost immediately that buying pressure has disappeared, or else a much more substantial rally leg will be underway.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s slightly lower fresh low attacking 1375.00 was recovered to test 1385.00 resistance, but did not recover 1390.00 or 1393.50 which would have signaled Friday’s was absorbed. Back under 1379.00 should resume the decline’s momentum.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s close was still testing the outstanding 21.80 objective, and essentially so did Monday’s session, firming slightly without gaining traction. Resuming the decline would next target 20.20.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s post-close extension down under 139-16 was extended even further Monday to 138-22, gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory. Back above 139-30 would signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, extending the decline would next target 137-18/137-30.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s modest gap down consolidated Friday’s rally back up to 96.00. The session ranged mostly only slightly in negative territory around its 95.65 pullback limit. The dip’s shallowness, and lacking an afternoon fresh low that could be recovered, the pattern did not form what would have been bullish “ineffectual pessimism.” Still, extending above 96.00 at Tuesday’s open would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not extending Thursday’s plunge any lower Friday avoided confirming that momentum was pointing down. It did not reverse momentum up, and Monday probed fresh lows before trying to close positive. An accumulation pattern will need to form before assuming the decline has ended.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…