Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s make-or-break point at Thursday’s close plunged sharply through support to prove it had been chipped away, suggesting a much deeper downleg underway. Can Crude Oil extend its rally simultaneously?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
82.00 was barely attacked Friday, and not at all tested, which was the least requirement for signaling that momentum was reversing up.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s reaction down from 1.3266 after the Employment Situation report retraced only the 1.3200 origin of Thursday’s last surge. That doesn’t preclude retesting Thursday’s high up to 1.3333.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Resuming the decline after Thursday’s retest of 1421.60 required literally plunging through 1410.00 to under 1390.00, or else the rally would extend sharply. Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report did plunge, to test 1377.00. Closing under last week’s 1385.00 lows now requires a second consecutive lower close Monday to confirm a new downleg is underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s plunge from 22.70 extended down to the outstanding objective below at 21.80, which was still being tested at the close. Closing under 21.55 Monday would confirm a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s failed probe of “higher prior lows” before closing back under 141-12 did not preclude the pattern from still forming a bottom, but did require extra work to be done at its 139-16 and 139-04 lows. Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report stopped optimistically short within 1 tick of the first objective, to all but ensure extending down to a fresh low.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s test of the minimum 96.00 target up to 96.30 absorbed a negative knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report. The extra refueling all but ensures extending higher to the 98.10 target, so long as 95.65 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly sideways Friday did not qualify as a second consecutive lower close, so Thursday’s break isn’t confirmed. That’s not a buy signal, and it doesn’t preclude extending down, but at least it clears the way for a buy signal to form.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s gap up extended higher Thursday, attacking its minimum target and confirming the breakout. Gold has meanwhile reached a make-or-break point.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The potential down to 82.15 remained alive since bounces were holding 83.40 resistance. Thursday’s plunge through it to test 81.10 was overkill. Closing back above 81.65 would rob the decline of its traction. Closing above 82.00 would reverse momentum up.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The likelihood of at least probing a fresh high became a record-setting one-day surge that nearly tested the 1.3333 resistance created by the prior rally. Closing back under 1.3175 would rob the rally of its traction. Closing under 1.3110 would reverse momentum down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s post-open dip held 1393.50 before reversing up sharply to test the 1421.60 prior overnight high. Reversing back under 1410.00 would invalidate the rally and begin a decline targeting well under 1390.00. Not reversing down would next target 1460.00 above. Regardless, the ranging should resolve without further delay.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up was reversed into negative territory where testing 22.35 support launched a rally to fresh highs above 22.80.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another flight-to-quality helped the bottoming pattern to extend up sharply through 141-12 to 142-15. That filled a two-week old gap while testing higher prior lows, both of which held as resistance through the close back under 141-06. Not recovering Thursday’s late dip immediately Friday in reaction to the Employment Situation report would target a retest of the recent 139-16 and 139-04 lows. Extending higher would target 144-06 and 144-16.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The pattern’s warning shots finally landed a direct hit Thursday with a morning-long rally to fresh highs that tested 95.30. The 96.00 minimum target is only likelier to be met, and probably exceeded to 98.10, so long as 94.25 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The ongoing inability to trigger a buy signal above 4.01 or 4.11 was resolved by Thursday’s disastrous dive to 3.83. Having originated from an extended narrowing range, the break has potential to be “false” — reversed up back into the range and above it more substantially than the current break lower. The first step to establishing that potential would be to avoid a second consecutive lower close Friday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If Crude Oil intends to rally, its delay in extending Wednesday’s gap up now suggests a more aggressive beginning is needed to confirm.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having held another day under the bounce limit, a retest of recent lows is still underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday at or under 1.3110 only further suggests at least a blip-up to fresh highs is needed before reversing down. So, reversing down first would be premature.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s test of 1390.00 and 1393.50 may have chipped away at their support, but first they launched a bounce back up toward Monday’s highs at 1410.00 that resolved down. Fresh highs would be credible for extending higher, while the next dip to 1390.00 and 1393.50 should be in the form of a plunge.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up tried extending higher only to range sideways and close at session lows. Closing back under 22.35 would resume the decline next targeting 21.80 — actually, closing back under 22.35 should extend without delay to 21.80

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s testing of 140-05 was on the precipice of dropping, so Wednesday’s gap up that extended higher helped to reassert that the pattern may be bottoming. Back above 141-12 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s early surge to fresh highs was consolidated back down around Tuesday’s 94.25 highs, but was otherwise maintained to put 96.00 into play, and probably also 98.10, so long as pullbacks now hold 93.45 as support.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s EIA report suggests only that the first trending attempted from the range is likely to be false. So, a fresh low that recovers back above 4.01 would be credible for launching a rally leg, but rallying first to 4.11 would more likely fail.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s post-open pop came too late to gain traction. But it still suggests that pent-up buying pressure is beginning to boil over.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s bounce was too shallow to reverse momentum up above 83.15, although the :lower prior highs” that were  tested Monday were reinforced as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s narrow hovering under the rally’s 1.3110 target suggested that at least a momentary fresh high is needed to create a slingshot effect that can reverse down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
All of Monday’s rally was retraced Tuesday back down to under 1390.00. The close narrowly avoided recovering 1398.50 so there remains potential for another drop Wednesday to resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down to and through the 22.35 sell signal did a more thorough job of filling the gap back to 22.22 that was rejected too impatiently Monday for its bottom to be durable. But the balance of the session only hovered there optimistically, suggesting the drop would resume and extend.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging around 1405-00 (basis Sep, 141-06 basis Jun) avoided breaking lower, which continues to allow a bottoming pattern to form.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Didn’t rally immediately Tuesday, and only after initially dipping was there a rally to fresh highs attacking 94.50. Having originated too late, it was retraced back under prior highs down to 92.75. Nevertheless, the same setup applies to Wednesday, with any immediate rally being credible for extending to 96.00 and probably then on to 98.10.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s sideways ranging offered no new information, although surging early through 4.01 would be credible for extending higher to at least test the 4.11 buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s false break indication cannot be a false break, itself. So, Monday’s complete recovery of Friday’s tumble isn’t necessarily bullish. And it underscores last week’s elastic session that first predicted trending about to begin. But it does create a new timing window described below… Meanwhile, has Crude Oil finally bottomed?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The drop from 84.45 extended Monday to test “lower prior highs” at 82.40. Back above 83.15 would signal the pullback had ended, with new highs in-play.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
1.2955 helds as support Friday to maintain momentum for the 1.3110 target, which was tested at Monday’s high. A pullback has room down to 1.3020 before suggesting that momentum is reversing down, although pullbacks should hold 1.3015 if the rally intends to extend.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s post-close extension down to 1385.00 was recovered Sunday night to test the 1398.50 bounce limit by $3. A dip back to 1390.00 Monday morning was recovered more substantially to 1416.50, well above the 1398.50 bounce limit. The drop must resume without further delay — and aggressively — to avoid a much bigger rally leg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up was retraced to almost fill the gap below back to Friday’s 22.22 close before recovering to fresh highs at 22.90, which more fully filled the gap above back to Thursday’s 22.70 close. The attraction above was neutralized thanks to impatient buyers at the attraction below. Back under 22.35 would again be credible for trending down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another flight-to-safety Monday morning triggered a retest of Friday’s pre-open rally to 142-13. Its reaction down still held 142-00 as support, so a bottom may be forming, so long as 141-06 isn’t broken.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s “inside day” was followed by another Monday, sort of. It was also contained within Thursday’s range, but probed above Friday’s high. Any higher Tuesday would still be credible for triggering a rally back up to 96.00, and probably then on to 98.10.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 4.11 buy signal wasn’t even attacked Monday, as 4.00 was probed as support.

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