Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s pattern indicated Tuesday that it was preparing to trend sharply. Failing to confirm Thursday’s break higher with a second consecutive higher close Friday would mean the trend’s direction would be down. Friday’s substantial drop would seem to confirm that.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s bounce ended the day testing 83.40 as support. Its recovery would prevent the pullback from extending down to 82.15.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s drop held 1.2955 as support, maintaining momentum to the bounce’s 1.3110 target.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending Thursday’s rally overnight to test 1421.00, Friday’s steep drop eventually tested 1390.00 as support. Bounces should now hold 1398.50 to maintain that Thursday’s rally stretched the rubber band for a much more substantial snap back down initially targeting 1350.00-1351.00, on the way to new lows under 1290.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s open gapped down to the 22.35 sell signal and tested 22.10 intraday. Unfinished business below at 21.80 remains in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing above the corrective bounce to 142-00 stopped short of fulfilling its 142-24 potential before reversing down sharply Friday to 140-04, within a half-point of the week’s 139-29 low. The afternoon’s flight-to-safety triggered a bounce to 141-06 resistance.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s gap down was also biased downward, but remained within Thursday’s range to form an “inside day.” Sellers expended energy throughout the day, produced a new low close, but gained no traction for the effort. It’s not a buy signal, but it adds instant credibility to any initial buying pressure Monday back above Friday’s 93.25 high.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Lower lows into the weekend testing 4.00 must be recovered back above 4.11 to begin signaling that momentum is reversing up.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Was Thursday’s Gold surge to fresh highs the trending predicted by recent patterns? Probably not. Either its trending will extend further into the weekend, or else a steep reversal down will make Thursday’s rally seem like a rounding error.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The pullback extended Thursday from recent test of the 84.45 buy signal. Unless 83.40 were recovered into the weekend, the next lower support under 83.15 is 82.60, where another rally effort would become likely.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
1.2955 resistance was broken Thursday to put into play 1.3110, unless 1.2955 were broken as support without delay into the weekend.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s break above 1398.50 trended sharply to probe above 1414.30 by $4.40 to 1417.70. Closing back under 1409.30 would signal buyers gained no traction for the effort, and that momentum was reversing down. There is otherwise potential for extending to 1430.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday morning’s rally attacked 23.25 resistance before reversing back down to 22.65. Any lower would target unfinished business below at 21.80, confirmed under 22.35.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A relatively narrow sideways range Thursday held tests of  142-00 resistance, still having room for extending up to 142-24 before considering anything more than a corrective bounce underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping down to probe fresh low down to 91.65 Thursday very quickly reacted back up sharply to 94.00, into positive territory. Back above 94.70 would still be likely to test 96.00 and probe higher to 98.10.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The drop extended Thursday to test 4.05, instead of recovering above 4.22 to resume the rally. Immediately recovering 4.11 into the weekend would at least suggest the drop’s momentum had ended, but not necessarily signal a new upleg underway.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s near capitulation Tuesday night is suggesting a lot of commodity volatility just ahead.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s attack on the 84.45 buy signal had stopped pessimistically short, so Wednesday’s gap down back to 83.55 shouldn’t be able to extend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s drop from 1.2955 resistance was retraced entirely overnight. Wednesday held 1.2955 resistance, but the drop has once again lost momentum without closing back under 1.2875.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up and $10 sideways range formed an inside day without predictive value. But the next trending beyond 1377.00-1398.50 is still likely to trend sharply.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s narrow inside day was not predictive, and the week-old 21.80 opening gap below should still be filled.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply lower lows Tuesday night down to 139-29 were recovered before Wednesday’s open, and the session never really probed under 141-00. Closing under 141-05 would resume the decline. There is otherwise resistance up to 142-00 and then 142-24 before assuming a bigger bounce is underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s bounce to 96.00 resistance was rejected immediately. Wednesday’s gap down to 94.35 bounced momentarily to 95.15 before reversing much lower to 93.10. Back above 94.70 would now be credible for retesting and then breaking above 96.00 targeting 98.10.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s fresh pullback lows held a test of 4.11 (basis Jul, 4.05 basis Jun) but stopped short of recovering above 4.22 to signal momentum reversing up.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s volatility Tuesday suggests the pattern is ready to resume trending, and in a very big way. Gold’s biggest moves tend to happen overnight, but they are still credible for extending the next day.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s bounce to 84.30 stopped short of triggering the 84.45 buy signal. The pessimism just below prior highs suggests that at least a fresh high will be probed.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
1.2955 resistance held again. Closing under 1.2840 Wednesday would confirm new lows at 1.2745 were in-play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s probe under 1383.00 in negative territory was recovered to test 1401.50 resistance. But the bounce failed as the session reversed back down under 1383.00. Closing under 1377.00 and 1372.00 would confirm a new downleg underway, still having some support to work through at 1367.00 on the way to new lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down never extended down, and only ranged sideways until fill the gap back to 22.50. A dip has room down to 21.80 before signaling a more substantial downleg has resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
More ranging at the lows without yet bouncing above a prior high finally proved to be taking too long to be bullish. Instead, Tuesday’s gap down to the 142-19 target’s lows soon broke lower sharply to 141-09. Bounces should hold 141-24 to maintain this leg’s momentum next targeting 140-14.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s gap up to and through 95.00 could extend the rally to 98.10 if 96.60 were also recovered without delay. There is otherwise no momentum reversal signaled.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Tuesday to 4.16 tried to recover, but spent the day essentially ranging back to 4.16. The rally must resume with almost no further delay if it is valid, and if a deeper dip to at least 4.05 can be avoided.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Having rested on its laurels Friday, the Natural Gas rally should not be further delayed past Monday if it is valid.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Very flat narrow ranging Friday was biased downward, still contained within Wednesday’s range. Compressing selling pressure without breaking lower makes a snap up to fresh highs likely.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s narrow ranging held 1.2955 resistance. The decline must resume without much further delay to avoid a bigger bounce targeting 1.3100.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ranging narrowly above and around 1383.00 has validated the level’s relevance, but neutralized its predictive value. The next durable trend should begin by reacting to a false break, probably from testing 1398.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s session wasn’t required to resume trending either way, but its timing does suggest the next trending attempt will be false.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging at recent lows into the weekend without yet rejecting the recent drop — and without probing fresh lows intraday — makes any immediate bounce more capable of extending higher, especially if 144-24 were recovered early.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Recovering Friday’s gap down to gravitate back around 94.00 doesn’t make a rally any likelier to develop. Dipping back under 93.00 would be very vulnerable to extending down intraday.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having extended the rally Thursday, Friday’s session was not obligated to rally any further, and it did not. But now having taken advantage of the opportunity to rest, the rally does need to resume Monday if it is valid.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…