Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas has now triggered two buy signals. While This point in the pattern should not hesitate if the rally is valid.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s bounce to the 84.45 buy signal had failed to trigger. Thursday’s reaction down to 83.54 left a gap outstanding that can attract price back up to it.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s bounce back to 1.2955 resistance was an inside day compared to Wednesday’s wide range. A retest of the lows cannot be discounted without also recovering Wednesday’s 1.3000 high.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight bounce into Thursday’s open retraced 61.8% of Wednesday’s drop from 1414.00, having held 1357.70 support. Above 1398.50 would likely test 1409.00, where any higher close would suggest a much bigger corrective bounce was underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s ranging consolidated the recent tests of the 23.25 buy signal, and still left outstanding the recent opening low’s gap.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows overnight probed the decline’s 142-19 target down to 149-09. Despite recovering intraday, fresh post-open lows tested 142-16. The opportunity for bottoming has almost disappeared entirely. the bond is always vulnerable to steep counter-trend spikes into the weekend, but it’s too late to start a credible rally.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having failed to hold 94.00 support, fresh lows tested 92.25 Thursday. A reaction up through the morning tested retested 94.00 as resistance, and held. Extending higher immediately may be the only way to overcome the attraction back down to Thursday’s 92.85 gap .

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having consolidated its recovery to 4.16, Thursday needed to resume the rally without much delay. The EAI report was absorbed and price did trend up to fresh highs testing 4.25. Pullbacks must now hold 4.16 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tapering, Bernanke and Minutes — in other words, all things FOMC — created great swaths of volatility Wednesday. No matter how wide, it was not arbitrary, as relevant price levels continue influencing intraday price action. Most notable is that the long bond’s new low bounced from touching its target, but not high enough to reverse momentum up.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s dip to 83.50 was recovered back to the recent 84.50 high, but not through it, not enough to trigger the 84.45 buy signal without probing higher Thursday.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday morning’s bounce up to 1.2955 resistance was exceeded all the way up to 1.3000, but only momentarily, before reversing down sharply on the day to 1.2840. The 1.2745 target is in-play, especially if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s lows tested what had been Monday morning’s 1357.70 bounce limit. Wednesday’s recovery probed 1400.00 resistance, and failed from 1414.00. The reaction down probed 1357.70, whose break would now target 1344.00 and then new lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another test of the 23.25 buy signal failed again Wednesday. The unfinished business below at Monday’s gap down does undermine any near-term recovery attempts.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another test of the 144-24 buy signal failed again Wednesday, producing a drop to new lows at the 142-19 target. Its bounce to 143-10 stopped short of reversing momentum up, which would be triggered by closing back above 143-30.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Rather than accelerate higher above 96.00, it was probed below again, putting into play an attack on 94.00 that was fulfilled intraday by testing 94.20. An actual touch of 94.00 should be avoided to allow a credible rally effort Thursday morning..

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s narrow range consolidated Tuesday’s recovery above 4.16. But the rally cannot tolerate much more delay in extending higher.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s double-digit drop Sunday night came close to satisfying targets before bouncing sharply intraday. Avoiding new lows is still unlikely. Meanwhile, Crude Oil behaves as if it wants to put in more than a corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip eventually probed under the 83.95 pullback limit. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm it failed to hold. Otherwise, closing back above 84.45 would signal the rally resuming to 85.30.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up slightly and firming throughout the day did not undermine the potential for resuming the decline to 1.2745.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The extended 1333.00 target was attacked twice to within $3 Sunday night. Its reaction up to 1398.00 Monday was excessive optimism, although so was the pre-open surge to 1362.00. Back under 1357.00 would resume the decline targeting new lows. Closing above 1383.00 for two consecutive sessions would signal a bigger bounce underway targeting 1455.00-1460.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s steep drop to 20.25 was reversed up sharply to test 23.25, whose recovery is the minimum requirement to signal the trend reversing up. Otherwise, at least a retest of 21.80 is likely.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap up was soon rejected, and the 143-13 sell signal was attacked. Recovering Monday’s high above 144-18 may be the only path to avoid probing new lows.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
96.00 was finally exceeded, aggressively, testing 97.10. Pullbacks should now 96.00 as support for the rally to extend to 98.10, and potentially 104.50.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s recovery to the 4.05 buy signal was bullish, and Monday’s open extended without delay to the 4.16 target. The reaction down from there held 4.05 as support, but 4.16 is still the buy signal for triggering a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s third consecutive double-digit dump, on a Friday, all but invalidates the corrective dip scenario.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Room to probe above the 84.20 target to 84.45 was exploited Friday by gapping up, extending to fresh highs and then ranging narrowly. Holding 83.95 as support would allow the rally to next target 85.30.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s gap down extended to fresh lows and ranged sideways through the afternoon. Bounces holding 1.2910 would allow the decline to extend to its next target at 1.2745.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another double-digit plunge, and on a Friday, seriously undermine whether the recent drop has been only a temporary corrective pullback. The gap back down to Thursday’s open was filled overnight, but reactions up were shallow and temporary before reversing to fresh lows testing 1357.50. Closing solidly above 1383.00 could still reverse the decline, which is meanwhile targeting 1333.00 and new lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down to Wednesday’s 22.42 low eventually extended to fresh lows at 22.18, extending toward the next lower target at 21.55-21.75, so long as 22.75 isn’t recovered.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s extension to a new multi-session high testing 145-16 while also triggering the 144-24 buy signal required the rally to extend immediately Friday if valid. It did not. The session slid back toward prior lows testing 143-28. Not exiting Monday morning in rally mode would all but require extending through the 143-13 sell signal to put 142-18 into play.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Immediately testing 96.00 at Friday’s gap up triggered a reaction back down into negative territory. Recovering back into positive territory at 96.00 still did not trigger the buy signal that would put into play 98.10.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down toward 3.90 came from Wednesday’s unimpressive tests of the 4.05 buy signal. Friday’s recovery back to 4.05 was impressive. Closing above it still targets 4.16, whose recovery would launch a new upleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s second consecutive double-digit plunge extended the week-long correction. If it’s still only a correction. Not rallying into the weekend would be likely instead to extend the dive into next week.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s test of the 84.20 target continued reacting down Wednesday to test its 83.60 pullback limit. Closing any lower would invalidate the potential for resuming the rally to 84.45.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having held a test of the decline’s 1.2875 target Tuesday, Wednesday’s open gapped up. The balance of the session was spent ranging sideways in positive territory, testing the prior consolidation’s lows as resistance. Closing back above 1.2955 would invalidate potential for resuming the decline to 1.2745.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The decline extended down sharply Wednesday, testing the next lower objective at 1383.00 to the extreme of its noise range down to 1369.50. Having tested 1383.00, closing back above 1400.00 would signal momentum reversing up to target 1460.50. Not clearly recovering 1383.00 or breaking under it by Wednesday’s close, closing under it — and under 1369.50 — would put into play new lows under 1290.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down to fresh lows testing 22.05-22.30 was recovered into positive territory. The recovery held Tuesday’s 22.75-22.80 highs, still short of signaling that momentum may be reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still avoiding the 143-13 sell signal by several ticks, Wednesday’s open was able to test the 144-24 buy signal, and then extend above it to test 145-16. That’s essentially a new relative high for the past week, requiring the recovery to extend higher without delay to be valid.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday night’s weakness stopped short of filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s 93.00 open, before recovering into Wednesday’s opening gap up above Tuesday’s 94.40 highs to test 94.90. A post-open dip was recovered to fresh intraday highs testing 95.55. Closing above 96.00 would still be needed to trigger 98.10‘s target.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to the 4.05 buy signal Tuesday without extending any higher intraday had raised a warning flag. Wednesday’s reaction down accelerated down through 3.95-4.00 on the EIA report. The original parameters remain valid.

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