Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Since currencies ultimately held their retracement limits after Tuesday’s opening gaps, Gold’s dip to its own pullback limit has the opportunity to launch one more upleg Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s open attacked the 80.10 pullback limit, which was tested throughout the day. The rally’s resumption depends not only on holding 80.10 as support, but also avoiding a second consecutive lower close Wednesday.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s open attacked the 1.3000 bounce limit, which was tested throughout the day. The decline’s resumption depends not only on holding 1.3000 as resistance, but also avoiding a second consecutive higher close Wednesday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s rally to within $1 of the 1720.00 target reacted down Tuesday to test 1710.00 support, whose break would signal a retest of last week’s lows underway. The 1706.00 intraday low struggled to test 1710.00 as resistance, let alone to recover it.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s gap down to and through 33.25 took the 34.00 target off the table, unless Wednesday were to recover 33.25.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s gap down extended Monday’s failed gap up above 150-00 that had returned to the 149-18 sell signal. Its 148-27 low was supported by “lower prior highs” whose test now all but ensures probing under 148-18..

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s late dip under the 85.85 sell signal did not immediately extend down Tuesday. But more late weakness did probe fresh lows under 85.25.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s narrow sideways ranging ultimately did not extend Monday’s gap down, and was still testing its lows. Only gapping up above the 3.60 prior high could trigger a buy signal without further consolidation.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s afternoon break presumably put into play new lows around 82.00. Even if the break had developed early in the day, a second consecutive lower close is still needed for confirmation.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow inside day did not change that so long as 80.10 holds as support, the rally is next targeting 81.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s narrow inside day did not change that so long as 1.3000 is not recovered, the drop is next targeting 1.2825.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s fresh low and its recovered created potential for bouncing above 1710.00, probably to 1720.00 or 1725.00. Monday’s rally to almost 1719.00 should extend higher so long as 1710.00 now holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap up to test 33.50 held above 33.25 intraday to put into play 34.00, so long as 33.25 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Slicing through 150-14 on the way down to 149-11 Friday had expended a lot of energy, making it a struggle to close under the 149-18 sell signal. Monday’s gap up probing 150-00 was retraced entirely to test 149-18, which was still being tested as support again.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Any fresh low under 85.85 would still be likely to resume the drop targeting 81.85-82.50. Monday’s open gapped up to avoid the fresh low. But a very late drop fell to test 85.35, presumably triggering a new downleg, needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Tuesday.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Retracing Wednesday’s rally Friday rather than resuming it made no rally effort credible without first probing under 3.53. Monday delivered that by gapping down to 3.44 and ranging sideways through the day. Only a gap up Tuesday back above 3.53 would be credible as a near-term buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Huge reactions to Friday’s Employment Situation report were most evident in Gold and bonds. Gold swung back from its negative reaction. Can bonds recover from Friday’s steep loss?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The reaction up extended higher Friday to 80.65, dropping to finish the day testing 80.40. So long as 80.10 holds as support, the rally is next targeting 81.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The reaction down extended lower Friday to 1.2877, bouncing to finish the day testing 1.2930. So long as 1.3000 is not recovered, the drop is next targeting 1.2825.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A plunge in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report did what Thursday’s session did not, probing under Wednesday’s low. The steep reaction up recovered back to Thursday’s 1705.00 high. Having printed a fresh low does allow a bigger bounce than just to 1710.00, probably to 1720.00 or 1725.00, so long as 1698.00 now holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s steep reaction down on the Employment Situation report did not probe fresh lows before reacting back up. The reaction up probed Thursday’s highs only temporarily. Closing above 32.25 would target 34.00, but there is otherwise no active signal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Multiple sessions of “ineffectual optimism” were only creating pent-up selling pressure, which Friday’s Employment Situation report released. Slicing through 150-14 on the way to 149-11 expended a lot of energy, making it a struggle to close under the 149-18 sell signal.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s deep gap down neither extended Friday nor retraced, but instead was consolidated. Any fresh low under 85.85 would still be likely to resume the drop targeting 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s rally was retraced Friday rather than resuming it. Now no rally effort will be credible without first probing the week’s lows under 3.53.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil was crushed at Thursday’s open, right back down to levels that were last tested by also gapping down. History does often repeat, so beware another temporary rejection. Otherwise, extending down to new lows without another corrective bounce could lead to a very durable bottom.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s reaction up from Tuesday’s probe under the decline’s 79.75 target extended sharply higher Thursday to test 80.30. A better bottom would have formed from first probing a fresh low, and there is potential for a test of 80.40 to end the rally.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s reaction down from probing above the rally’s 1.3050 target extended sharply lower Thursday to 1.2950. A better top would have formed from first probing a fresh high, and there is potential for a test of 1.2930 to end the decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) After Wednesday’s recovery from a fresh low at 1686.00 stopped short of actually reversing momentum back up, Wednesday’s low was attacked at Thursday’s open down to 1687.10. Despite not actually probing a fresh low, Thursday reversed up into positive territory above Wednesday morning’s 1702.70 prior high. The bounce has potential for extending up to 1710.00, where another downleg would be likely.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s opening dip nearly touched Wednesday’s 32.58 low before reversing up sharply into positive territory at 33.33, above the prior two sessions’ highs, and above 33.00 to further suggest that sellers are not gaining much traction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite retracing a probe above 150-14 prior highs Wednesday, Thursday gapped up to extend the rally to 150-28. The close nevertheless attacked 150-14 as support. But momentum does not reverse down without first breaking under 150-10.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The growing likelihood for at least an obligatory dip to 86.50 was fulfilled by Thursday’s gap down. Its brief reaction up failed. Extending under 85.85 would put into play a test of the 82.00 area.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s surge extended higher only momentarily Thursday. Its reaction down was too shallow for sellers to regain control. Closing above 3.72 would still be credible for resuming the recovery.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas had been probing lower and lower lows without there first having been a distributive pattern. Proof that buyers remain strong came from Wednesday’s gap up that extended sharply higher intraday. Closing higher Thursday could complete a base capable of launching a strong rally.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s probe under the decline’s 79.75 target did not extend lower Wednesday. The gap up did not extend higher, either, as the session ranged around 79.75. Not resuming the decline immediately would be bullish.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s probe above the rally’s 1.3050 target did not extended higher Wednesday. The gap down did not extend lower. But it probably will, unless the rally were to resume without delay Thursday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s sharply decline extended lower Wednesday to 1686.00, but Tuesday’s 1692.50 prior low was recovered. Recovering 1698.00 would start to signal the drop had ended, targeting at least a corrective bounce up to 1710.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s test of the 32.90 prior lows extended down Wednesday to test 32.60, but 32.90 was recovered into the close. Back above 33.20 would signal the corrective dip had ended, reversing momentum up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The bounce off of Monday’s test of the 149-04 target extended higher Wednesday to fresh highs at 150-21. The 150-14 prior highs held as resistance, and now back under 150-02 would signal momentum reversing down to at least test the 149-18 sell signal.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) With the next trending attempt likely to extend, Wednesday’s opening dip held Tuesday’s low to avoid attempting to trend. At least an obligatory dip to 86.50 is growing likelier.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s gap down that only ranged around Friday’s prior low had required no follow-through so long as a recovery were underway immediately Wednesday. The gap up to Tuesday’s 3.59 high extended sharply higher to probe 3.70. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the reversal, next targeting 3.90.

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