Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s tumble Tuesday fulfilled expectations from the Euro having outperformed on Monday. It also highlighted Silver’s outperformance that I have been describing here. And that suggests the tumble is not going to be retraced quickly.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down followed Monday’s test of the decline’s 79.75 target. Testing 79.60support  through the day instead of trending down does keep alive the decline, but also requires the decline to extend without delay to avoid bottoming .

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up followed Monday’s test of the rally’s 1.3050 target. Testing 1.3105 resistance through the day instead of trending up does keep alive the rally, but also requires the rally to extend without delay to avoid topping.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Firming Monday while the Euro surged had suggested that Gold would tumble Tuesday. The $19 gap down to 1701.00 was the lowest level in four weeks, and extended down to 1692.50. The drop is targeting 1682.50-1683.00 so long as 1710.50 is not recovered.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s bounce had failed to recover the 33.90 sell signal that had triggered Friday, so Tuesday’s fresh lows were appropriate. Interestingly, the outperformance vs. Gold persisted as Silver’s gap down held a test of last week’s 32.90 low, which itself had held a test of the prior week’s low — Gold, meanwhile, broke to its lowest levels in four weeks. Closing back above 33.20 would suggest the drop had ended, but it remains vulnerable to extending down otherwise.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s recovery from the drop’s 149-04 target extended Tuesday to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 150-01 close. Despite probing up to 150-10, 150-01 was being tested at Tuesday’s close. Back under 149-24 would rob the bounce of its momentum, but 149-18 is still the sell signal.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Similar to Monday’s gap up that immediately trended down throughout the day, Tuesday’s gap up trended back up. Both finished around last week’s 88.65 prior high that was likely to hold for several days. Now those several days have ended. The next trending attempt will get every benefit of the doubt for extending.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s gap down under Friday’s prior low did not extend down, and only ranged around Friday’s low. No lower low is required, so a recovery must be underway Wednesday if the drop is to avoid extending at what could become an accelerated pace.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight One day following Gold’s break under support, the Dollar followed suit by probing fresh lows. But Gold only firmed. That’s either because the Euro fulfilled this leg’s target, or because Gold is preparing to tumble Tuesday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s low fulfilled the 79.75 target. Having gapped down, an immediate recovery would require making Monday into an Island Reversal by gapping up above 80.10 and extending sharply higher. Alternatively, a likelier bullish scenario would range sideways back up to 80.10. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s open fulfilled the 1.3050 target and ranged around it (mostly above it) through the day. Closing back under 1.3020 would signal the trend is reversing back down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s price action ignored currencies extending, and only firmed after Friday’s drop had presumably resumed the decline. The narrow ranging inside day should resolve down without further delay to confirm Friday’s break was valid.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s opening gap up was too shallow to reject Friday’s drop. So long as 34.00-34.10 holds as resistance, back under 3.45 would trigger a new downleg targeting 32.45.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Last week’s consecutive sessions of “ineffectual optimism” finally gave way Monday by gapping down to the 149-18 sell signal and quickly testing its 149-04 target. That setup was likely also to resume the decline, but gapping down seems to have expended too much near-term selling pressure. The afternoon’s recovery back up to 149-25 now resets the 149-18 sell signal, whose minimum target would now be 148-16.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s gap up to fresh highs at 90.33 was retraced entirely back to Friday’s 88.88 close. The attempt to trend higher still seems premature — eve more so. Closing above 90.00 would be bullish, but now closing back under 88.00 would signal momentum reversing down, initially targeting 86.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) There was little effort Monday to invalidate Friday’s drop. There was also no new low close. While the decline is free to extend indefinitely, Closing back above 3.65 would target 3.70, whose recovery would essentially target filling the gap back up to 3.90.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If Gold isn’t following Crude Oil higher, then should be on its way to fresh lows. And possibly Crude Oil shouldn’t be hovering so high.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s close above 80.13 suggests that a bottom is forming. A second consecutive higher close, especially above 80.45 would confirm. Otherwise, the decline is vulnerable to resuming.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Although Friday’s fresh high did not extend, it did prove that Thursday’s fresh high did not peak. 1.3050 remains alive, so long as 1.2955 holds as support.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Having held its 1729.50 (basis Feb, 1727.00 basis Dec) bounce limit Thursday, the decline was free to resume. Friday’s drop to 1710.00 (basis Feb, 1708.40 basis Feb) closed under 1717.00-1719.50 (basis Feb, 1714.50/1717.00 basis Dec) to further confirm the new downleg underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s open plunged under the 33.90 pullback limit to attack 33.20. Just closing under 33.55 suggests that momentum has already reversed down. A second consecutive lower close would confirm.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The “ineffectual optimism” at recent highs continued Friday by gapping up to Wednesday’s 150-14 high and failing to extend any higher. Back under 149-18 would target 149-04 and probably resume the decline.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Since Thursday’s gap up that rejected Wednesday’s gap down did not extend higher immediately Friday, the wide sideways range was likelier to persist into the weekend. The session did eke out fresh highs for the week to attack 89.00. But again for Monday, not trending higher immediately would make sideways ranging likelier.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Although Thursday’s new low close never probed fresh lows intraday, the drop extended down sharply Friday instead of finally triggering any buy signal. There is no active pattern.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s highlight was its lowlight, as Crude Oil gapped right back from Wednesday’s gap down. Will Gold follow it? If not, then another Gold drop remains likely.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s 80.13 opening gap was under all prior lows, so it requires being retested. Also testing the 79.75 target intraday and recovering to close back above 80.13 would form a bottom.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap up to the 1.2995 prior high doesn’t require a retest. But having closed above 1.2955 keeps alive the 1.3050 target.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The bounce potential to 1727.00 was tested Thursday, and held, allowing a new downleg to begin. Beware of any fresh high, because extending higher would likely be at a very steep pace.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The outperformance vs. Gold gave its greatest display Thursday, gapping up and extending up above the 34.15 prior high. Closing back under 33.90 would start to seal a top, and prevent extending higher to 36.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s gap down reacted to Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism,” but did not extend down. Perhaps worse, the gap back to Wednesday’s close was filled, without extending higher, neutralizing the attraction above without putting into play any higher target. Back under 150-28 would target 150-14, and probably resume the decline.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Rather than close under 85.75 to confirm that 82.00 was in-play, and despite closing under 86.70 Wednesday, Thursday’s open gapped up to recover all of Wednesday’s plunge from 87.20, ranging 87.65-88.70 intraday. That’s bullish only if followed by a higher close Friday. It otherwise suggests this range will persist for several days.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s complete recovery back up to 3.70 from testing 3.62 intraday did produce a gap up Thursday. But it was reversed back down to 3.63 on the EIA report. Thursday’s drop accomplished nothing that Wednesday’s drop had not done already, so it is not necessarily bearish, but there is currently no signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude’s twin Fibo retracements resolved as was expected Wednesday. So far. The question is whether it will now retest prior lows.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up held 80.55 resistance to keeps alive the drop’s 79.75 target. Reversing to close negative also kept alive potential for a new downleg.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping down Wednesday to 1.2880 was recovered back up through 1.2915 to Tuesday’s 1.2935 close to prevent sellers from gaining traction.Back above 1.2955 would target 1.3050.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s test of 1741.50 needed to be the pullback’s low, so that recovering 1750.00 would resume the rally. Wednesday’s plunge to 1705.50 ended that. Recovering 1714.50-1717.00 makes a bounce up to 1727.00 likely before extending down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down to 33.50 and its lower low at 32.90 both were recovered intraday up to 33.75. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts. But the rally’s resumption requires holding 33.15 as support if retested.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s test of 151-24 was retraced back under prior highs. That selling pressure did not trap shorts, since lower prior highs weren’t really probed intraday. This “ineffectual optimism” can’t tolerate any further weakness without also retesting 150-14 and probably also breaking it.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The consolidation ended abruptly by gapping down sharply under 86.70 Wednesday to new 2-week lows. Closing under 85.75 would confirm that 82.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday and Tuesday’s pullback had held last week’s lows to keep alive potential to trigger a buy signal. Wednesday’s gap down to 3.70 tried to invalidate that.by probing fresh lows. But the close recovered the intraday dip. Extending higher Thursday after the EIA report would target 3.90.

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