Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Not that I am one of its proponents (I’m not), perhaps that’s why I’m always happy to point out when Crude Oil’s correlation becomes questionable.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s rally was immediate, and it immediately surged, closing at new highs. Hardly even acknowledging 80.00 resistance on the way to fresh highs, suggest the tide has turned positive

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s steep decline back to prior lows doesn’t prevent another corrective bounce. But it would likely peak upon testing 1.2950-1.2975, and — regardless of probing higher first — fresh lows are now likely, and likely targeting 1.2740.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Holding 1770.00 as support Monday allowed the recovery to resume, but it didn’t prevent Tuesday from extending lower to 1762.00. Now recovering 1770.00 must be confirmed by closing above 1780.00 to signal that 1814.00 is in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s break lower targeting 33.00 could have been invalidated by Monday immediately recovering from testing 34.00. But the dip to almost 33.50 was largely recovered. The 33.00 target should be tested regardless of whether Tuesday’s close is much higher. But its support could still hold.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s bounce to just above 148-00 had peaked for short of even attacking the 148-26 bounce limit. That helped Tuesday’s gap down to 147-21 rally back up to 148-14. It’s still too shallow to qualify as fulfilling the pattern’s corrective bounce, but closing back under 147-26 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s low stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 88.20 close. Nevertheless, Tuesday’s open gapped up through 90.15 and extended sharply higher intraday to attack 93.00 to within a dime. A fresh low was required to form a durable bottom, but closing above 93.00 would still be credible for launching a sizable rally to test 100.00, first.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Rather than probe either of the past two sessions’ lows before rallying, Tuesday already surged through 3.45. I’ll give it a benefit of the doubt for being able to extend higher — if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close, and so long as 3.45 holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Last week’s immediate bounce in Crude Oil that retraced its plunge never invalidated the outstanding target. The bounce’s near-complete retracement through Sunday night hasn’t yet merited implementing lower targets. The pattern may yet form a durable bottom. Uh-oh.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday afternoon’s bounce didn’t recover 79.55, but that didn’t stop a rally Sunday night from testing 79.80 resistance. Without extending higher intraday, a break back under 79.55 would still be capable of resuming the downleg targeting 79.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s close back at 1.3020 prevented the session from closing positive. The consequence was bearish, gapping down to test 1.2945-1.2980. But lower prior highs held as support and the session never extended down, so there remains potential for retesting last week’s 1.3080 high up to 1.3100.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s drop extended down Monday, but held 1770.00 to avoid signaling momentum reversing down, and to maintain one last bit of potential for resuming the rally to 1814.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s second consecutive lower close following Friday’s dip signals that momentum has reversed down. The session only firmed from the open’s gap down, casting suspicion on the break’s momentum. But it wasn’t recovered, so anything short of gapping back up above 34.50-35.00 is vulnerable to testing 33.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s slide on the Employment report didn’t preclude the potential for correcting before the drop continues. Monday’s bounce to just above 148-00 has yet even to attack its potential to 148-26.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Sunday night’s slide confirmed Friday’s retracement of most of Thursday’s surge. In other words, strong hands produced Wednesday’s plunge, and Thursday’s surge was a corrective bounce. The overnight low at 88.21 stopped just short of filling the gap back to Wednesday’s close, optimism that will only delay the inevitable fresh low that fulfills the 87.00 target. I’m not yet ready to establish a lower target, as the pattern does allow for a durable bottom to form from fresh lows.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s session ranged flat to higher, stopping short of touching 3.45 to signal momentum reversing up, or probing fresh lows to form a durable bottom.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Two big head fakes were called out Friday, when Gold and Crude Oil retraced Thursday’s big bounces. Interestingly, the Euro not only maintained its gain from Thursday, but also extended higher.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Much of Friday’s dip to fresh lows testing 79.20 was retraced intraday, but 79.00 remains in-play so long as 79.55 is not recovered.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s break higher did extend Friday, testing 1.3080 with 1.3100 still in-play so long as 1.3020 now holds as support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The rally already indicated it was tired. Its attempt to extend to the 1814.00 target may yet succeed, but not necessarily easily. In fact, Thursday night’s fresh high up to 1798.00 reacted down sharply on Friday’s Employment report, testing 1774.50. No prior low was broken, so there remains potential to resume the rally, unless 1770.00 support were broken.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s close above 35.00 was not confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday. Instead, the 34.50 pullback limit was tested as support. A second consecutive lower close Monday would signal momentum has instead reversed down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite beginning with a whimper, and not with a bang, recent weakness did complete the topping process and slid sharply lower Friday on the Employment Situation report. The slide to and through 147-20 could still correct up to 148-26 before extending down more substantially. But closing under 147-04 — and/or a second consecutive lower close Monday — would confirm 145-22 and 145-06 are in-play.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s steep bounce had retraced almost all of Wednesday’s deeper drop, but not enough to reverse momentum up or to negate the lower target(s) in-play. Thanks to Friday morning’s nearly $3 slide, closing under 90.25 confirms Thursday’s bounce had peaked already. Back under 88.75 would confirm momentum had reversed down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Having failed Thursday’s attempt to reinstate the rally, Friday’s narrow sideways ranging now all but requires fresh lows before another buy signal can be calculated.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Sometimes we can be our own best (contrary) indicators. Wednesday’s deep plunge to fresh lows had me entertaining whether to lower my target. Of course, Thursday recovered almost the entire plunge.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Without immediately extending to fresh highs after Wednesday’s peak at the range’s upper-end, a drop back to and through the range’s lower-end was likely. Thursday’s open gapped down back to Tuesday’s 79.80 close and then slid below prior lows to 79.35, next targeting 79.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s dip from Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” was less damaging than the session could have been. In fact, it neutralized the attraction back down to Monday’s 1.2900 close. Thursday’s gap up above the  1.2955 buy signal extended higher intraday to 1.3040, targeting the 1.3100 area next.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Narrow extended ranging around 1780.00 had established that the rally’s sponsorship had worn thin, but also that sellers were not ready to retake control. Thursday’s gap up to fresh highs attacking 1798.00 suggests the final upleg targeting 1814.00 is underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s gap up above 35.00 did not extend higher, and the balance of the day ranged choppily around 35.00. But the initial reaction down did essentially fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close, so a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm 36.75 is in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Drifting lower Thursday to probe slightly under the past week’s lows at 148-27 is too shallow and hesitating to be credible for triggering a durable drop. Closing under 148-10 could be bearish, but the dip should otherwise recover to probe recent highs up to 150-16.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s gap up to 88.80 extended sharply higher intraday to test 91.80. That might seem to reject Wednesday’s even deeper drop, but it does not. The pattern may yet go on to do so, and can firm further to retest 93.55 before reversing down. Regardless, gapping up from Wednesday’s 88.00 close and trending up sharply reflect too much optimism at a low to form a durable bottom.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday morning firmed but did not recover the 3.45 buy signal that would resume the rally, and reinstate its 3.58 and 3.75 targets.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s corrective bounce ended abruptly Wednesday. The reaction seemed somewhat outsized compared to the news that triggered it, so I may be lowering my next target soon.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s touch of 70.55 support did prove to be the range’s lower-end when Wednesday gapped up to test the 80.10 prior high at the range’s upper-end. A breakout must trigger without delay Thursday to extend the rally, or else a drop back to and through the range’s lower-end would become likely.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s temporary intraday probe above prior highs did prove to be “ineffectual optimism” when Wednesday slid back to Monday’s 1.2900 close. That’s less damaging than the session could have been, so a bounce back above 1.2955 would be credible for triggering a rally targeting the 1.3100 area.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s narrow intraday ranging offered no new information, other then to confirm the rally’s momentum is not reliable.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Like Gold, Wednesday’s narrow intraday ranging offered no new information, other then to confirm the rally’s momentum is not reliable.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Overnight strength up to 150-06 was erased before Wednesday’s open to range narrowly intraday. That would have sufficed for the false break we have been monitoring, but the non-reaction disqualifies it. Still awaiting a fresh high to be rejected, or an open under 148-10, to reverse momentum down.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Two-three days spent ranging in and around 91.20-93.00 did contain the corrective bounce from testing the drop’s 89.75 target. The 87.00 target remained in-play, as Wednesday’s gap down that extended to fresh lows at 88.00 has confirmed.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 3.58 target was denied in favor of opening 1 penny under the 3.45 pullback limit and extending down another dime. Back above 3.45 Thursday would reinstate the rally’s momentum.

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