Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s chart since last Friday looks eerily similar to S&Ps recent consolidation that resolved down. Sharply.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down was retraced back up to the critical 82.35 level that had held Wednesday’s drop as support. The afternoon’s reaction down was contained within the morning’s range. Recovering the 82.35 interim high would trigger a rally targeting last Friday’s 83.39 opening gap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The past week’s pattern looks eerily familiar, like the S&P chart through its last corrective phase. A week-long rally through Thursday’s highs culminated in a gap up. The gap up was retraced entirely intraday, in time for the open’s gap up to be recovered. Rather than let the buying pressure remain pent-up, it has been expended already. Closing Friday under Thursday’s 1.2540 low would seal a top.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s fulfillment of the 1635.00-1642.00 target was likely to retest the prior range at 1611.00-1624.00. Bernanke’s testimony Thursday triggered a reaction that leap-frogged over the prior range, and through it down to 1579.40. So long as bounces were to hold 1596.00 resistance, a close under 1574.00 would next target 1553.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Silver was trading positive overnight while Gold began turning negative. But it couldn’t escape the vacuum below that was created by Bernanke’s testimony Thursday. Closing back under 28.75 undermined the 30.00-30.35 target, but there remains an attraction to 29.30 that could help another rally to begin.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s relatively narrow range seemed oblivious to Bernanke’s testimony, Gold’s plunge, and the market’s surge. So, 148-16 support seems fairly strong. But a rally to 153-04 would not be signaled until recovering above 149-06 and 149-16.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday repeated Wednesday’s test of 86.00 resistance. Each was retraced down to 84.65, the second time from above 87.00. Back under 84.00 would target a retest of 81.25. But now a close above 86.00 would have potential to 89.50.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) While Wednesday’s one success had been holding 2.40 support, that was Thursday’s one failure. The opening tick broke under it, and the balance of the session trended down to fresh lows at 2.26. A second consecutive lower close would all but require new trend lows. But avoiding a lower close Friday — and closing above 2.37-2.39 Friday or Monday — would signal that a correction had ended.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil bounced back up to the decline’s prior target, testing it as resistance. The pattern’s lows still need to be retested. Falling from this height would be likelier to absorb the selling pressure to form a durable bottom.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s eventual drop held prior support at 82.35. Now a close above 82.70 would signal a retest underway of last Friday’s 83.39 opening gap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) An overnight rally did what two prior sessions had not, and at least attacked a prior high at 1.2545. The morning’s pullback filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close under 1.2445, and then resumed the rally to 1.2575. Last Friday’s 1.2334 opening gap remains outstanding, and its test would be put into play by closing under 1.2490.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1635.00-1642.00 target remained outstanding through two days of ranging narrowly at 1611.00-1624.00. Wednesday’s open gapped up to fulfill the target. Much of the session ranged narrowly there, but eventually began a pullback to retest the consolidation’s “lower prior highs.” There is no active signal until either closing under 1611.00, or until after another bounce from 1624.00 were to retest 1635.00-1642.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap up compensated for the delayed lag from Gold’s recent rally. The 30.00-30.35 target remains in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The drop extended lower Wednesday to 148-16, dropping more than 2 points to no longer bec qualify as only a pullback. But 153-04 would still be put into play back above 150-00.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) There has been no active signal; only resistance above at the 86.00 and at the 81.25 recent overnight lows. Back under 84.00 would put into play a retest of 81.25.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s dip held 2.40 to prevent sellers from regaining traction. But it also avoided extending above 2.50, which is still needed to resume the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Several markets that ranged narrowly Tuesday — Currencies, Gold, Bonds — tend to correlate inversely to stocks. Being the second such consecutive session, while stocks firmed further, suggests that stocks may be straying too far from the field.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s pullback had held 82.70 support, but Tuesday’s gap up did not resume the rally. But the recent 82.67 high’s retest remains likely so long as 82.70 continues to hold as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap down was a natural reaction to two days of firming that did not recover a single prior high. The session only ranged narrowly around 1.2425, leaving Friday’s low likely to be retested.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s price action duplicated Monday’s narrow range, maintaining potential to test the 1635.00-1642.00 target area.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping up Tuesday did not extend higher, and the session remained within Monday’s range. Extending higher without delay still would target 30.00-30.35. There is otherwise no active signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The first break from Monday’s “inside day” was down, gapping lower Tuesday. This tends to be false directionally, which maintains potential for extending higher to 153-04.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s post-close action had firmed above the intraday range, but remained within Friday’s range to still be an “inside day.” Monday’s post-close firming was repeated Tuesday, but not improved. There is no active signal.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s gap up had formed an Island of Friday’s intraday ranging. Tuesday’s gap up helped to confirm. Closing above 2.50 would resume the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas was Monday’s highlight, rejecting Friday’s gap down by gapping back up, and forming an Island Reversal.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s second consecutive pullback neutralized an open gap below at 82.60, and still managed to hold its test of the rally’s original 82.70 target as support. A top here is unlikely

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s “key reversal” firmed further Monday, even Sunday night while S&Ps were sliding to new lows. Two consecutive sessions have closed higher, the latest one neutralizing an open gap above at 1.2485, but without closing above a prior high. Perhaps 1.2600 will be tested in the process, but the bounce should fail back under 1.2385 to resume its 1.2288 target.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s 1632.00 high was never retested Monday, as currencies also were relatively subdued. The lack of reaction down while remaining relatively close to the 1635.00-1642.00 target area suggests that it will be tested before sellers can gain any traction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Without Monday following through on Friday’s recovery attempt, fresh highs were not attacked. But 30.00-30.35 should still be tested so long as pullbacks were to hold 27.90 as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s 151-04 pullback limit was attacked to within 2 ticks to maintain potential for extending the rally up to 153-04. The “inside day” does suggest the first break either way may be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s “inside day” followed an overnight probe of fresh lows down to 81.21, as was likely. A post-close break higher still peaked within Friday’s range, so there is no active signal.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s gap up fulfilled the only potential bullish pattern, rejecting Friday’s gap down and “ineffectual pessimism.” Closing above 2.50 would still signal momentum reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Stock markets don’t decline in a vacuum. Crude Oil plunged through my target that was met Thursday, while the long bond surged to probe its target. And currencies… well… just what did currencies do?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 83.45 target was probed up to 83.67 before reversing down into negative territory to 82.70. The open’s gap back up to 83.39 remains outstanding and requires being filled, which will inhibit any further sell-off attempt. There also remains outstanding a third higher close above 83.14. A top is unlikely.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh lows attacked the 1.2255 target down to 1.2288. A reversal into positive territory tested 1.2462 and remained in positive territory. But the open’s gap down to 1.2324 requires being filled, which will undermine any recovery attempt, if not also keep alive the decline.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) One more test of 1561.00 down to 1545.50 was recovered Friday on the Employment Situation report to quickly probe above 1572.00 to 1611.00 and 1632.00. The rally should also visit 1635.00-1642.00 so long as 1611.00 now holds as support. But a break under 1597.00 is needed to signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A spike down to 27.20 was reversed back up to prior highs attacking 28.70. Almost any follow-through Monday would target 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open gapped up nearly 1 point back to Thursday’s 150-26 high, and then spiked up 1-1/2 points on the Employment report. A reaction down to 151-00 was recovered entirely, now having potential for extending up to 153-04 so long as 151-05 were to hold any test as support.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite meeting and holding the 86.00 target Thursday, Friday’s open gapped down to 83.39 and probed fresh lows intraday down to 82.29. The close was still overlapping the opening print, so intraday sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Gapping open Monday back above 85.00-86.00 would form a temporary Island Reversal. Otherwise, at least a probe under Friday’s low is likely Monday.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s setup had potential to form a bottom, but required closing Friday above 2.50. Instead, the open gapped down under the 2.39 prior lows and extended lower to 2.32. Immediately recovering 2.39 Monday could extend up to 2.50, but there is otherwise no active pattern.

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