Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas repeated Monday’s surge, probing fresh multi-week highs. Crude Oil is only testing this week’s highs, but it is poised to play catch-up as the Energy Sector charts improve across the board.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Slightly lower fresh lows were probed again under 79.20, but ultimately the decline did not extend. Closing back above 79.50 would target 80.30.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s choppy range around Tuesday’s 1.3220 high was very narrow, especially when considering the stream of FOMC events that triggered extreme volatility in Gold. The pattern was vulnerable to extending higher, but did not extend higher despite the day’s catalysts, suggesting that a break back under 1.3185 is now ready to launch a downleg. Still, closing under 1.3135-1.3145 would confirm.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Almost any weakness Wednesday from Tuesday’s clsoe above 1640.00 would have been likely to probe back into Monday’s 1626.50-1633.00 range. In fact, price was already slipping when FOMC news triggered a plunge to 1625.00. Amazingly, and not at all foreseen, the plunge was retraced just as quickly to 1645.50. The near-term attraction below has been neutralized, and a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm momentum has reversed up. There is otherwise no active signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s dive to fresh lows at 29.92 was retraced back up to 30.60. This was still negative territory, undermining the recovery attempt, leaving in-play 29.55 and 28.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Intraday lows Wednesday at 141-03 were recovered to 142-00 into the close. Closing under 141-20 would still confirm momentum has reversed down more durably. There is otherwise no buy signal, but room for bouncing to 142-30 without yet triggering a new rally leg.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Having left no unfinished business below Tuesday, closing above 1052.5 would trigger a new rally leg. Wednesday’s session got off to a false start, but ultimately attacked the week’s highs at 104.57. Just holding 104.00 as support is likely to resolve in triggering the rally.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Wednesday’s low held 1.98 to maintain potential for extending Monday’s surge. Its gap up to 2.02-2.03 dipped slightly before repeating the surge to 2.09. Now the rally remains intact so long as 2.02 holds as support… UNG meanwhile surged, as well, above both its 14.95 signal that was tested Monday, and above Monday’s 15.10 high. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm higher targets in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s bounce left outstanding two attractions below — the gaps back to Monday’s open and close. Almost any early weakness Wednesday would confirm the decline has resumed.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s bounce had peaked upon testing 79.70-79.75 resistance, instead of closing above it to signal a rally underway. Tuesday’s reaction was more attracted to the gap back down to Friday’s 79.30 close, and to probe under its 79.20 low. There is no near-term unfinished business above or below. Closing back above 79.50 would trigger a bigger rally leg targeting 80.30.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s drop neutralized unfinished business below by filling the gaps back to last week’s prior high closes around 1.3145. Tuesday’s rally filled the gap back up to Friday’s 1.3220 close. There is no near-term unfinished business above or below. A pullback under 1.3185 has room down to 1.3135-1.3145 before triggering a bigger downleg. The bounce could otherwise extend next up to 1.3300 or 1.3333.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap up filled the gap back to Friday’s 1642.00 close.Since Tuesday’s 1650.00 high was retraced $8 to close back under Friday’s 1647.00 prior high, almost any weakness would target the outstanding a gap back to Monday’s 1633.00 close, and to its 1626.50 open. There is otherwise no active buy parameter.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 30.88 high, the bounce peaked upon testing recent “higher prior lows” at 31.11. Closing under 31.50 would resume the drop targeting 29.55 and 28.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Rallying stocks removed the flight-to-quality premium from testing 143-04, to dip back down to last week’s 142-10 highs. The pullback has room down to 141-20 before confirming momentum has reversed down. A bounce could first test 142-30 and still resolve down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s close above 102.75 produced a gap up Tuesday that tested 104.00. Its reaction down filled the gap back to Monday’s 103.00 close, leaving no unfinished business below. Closing Wednesday above 105.25 would put into play 108.25.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) 2.02 was probed overnight, but Tuesday’s close was trying to defend 1.98 support, which must hold to maintain potential for extending Monday’s surge.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold plunged and Natural Gas surged, each confirming expectations that recent near-term extremes had formed. But while Gold had signaled its momentum was reversing down, Natural Gas left had signaled only that its drop was losing sponsorship. That seems to have changed… Is it time to buy UNG?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap up pierced Thursday’s 79.75 close long enough to fill the gap that Friday’s open had created. Closing above 79.75 would signal an actual rally leg underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday fulfilled and exceeded the 1.3299 bounce objective. Monday rejected it by gapping back down to Thursday’s 1.3135 close, which the session ranged around. Actually resuming the decline requires closing under Monday’s 1.3105 low.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) As if any further confirmation was needed that bottom fishers weren’t biting, Monday’s open gapped down $19 to probe under 1624.00. The intraday session-long bounce from there tested higher prior lows above 1638.00, leaving the open’s gap outstanding to attract price back into the downleg.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Overnight action simply slid to fresh lows at 30.45. The pattern that launched the break was ranging too narrowly to predict its resolution, but a close under 30.40 would target 29.55 and then 28.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) There has been no buy signal while awaiting a sell signal to trigger. That hasn’t prevented extending higher, and falling stocks has helped. Fresh highs gapped up to new highs at 142-24 and tested 143-04 intraday. Closing above 142-28 would get a benefit of the doubt for launching a new rally  leg. Otherwise, now closing under 142-10 would target 141-06 and lower.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Another probe under 102.75 (102.25 basis May), it was recovered yet again by closing above 103.00. Now closing above 103.85-104.15 would target 107.75 and potentially much higher.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Ongoing efforts to trend below 1.98 resumed abrubptly Thursday. No sell signal was triggered, and no consecutive lower close Friday confirmed. Monday exploited this by recovering gradually back above last Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs to 2.01. Momentum has reversed up so long as 1.98 holds as support… UNG has also bottomed by closing above 14.95, so long as 14.75 holds tests as support, targeting 17.85 and 20.00.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro popped up more aggressively than was expected, but tested its objectives nonetheless. Its next step should be a big one — whether up, or down.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The likely test of 79.50 was actually a gap down to 79.50, that then extended much lower intraday, to within 7 cents of the 79.15 objective. Its test is likely so long as bounces now hold 79.50.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Three consecutive sessions absorbed selling pressure and returned to resistance. This all but required rewarding buyers by testing the next higher resistance at 1.3195. Another gap was filled up to 1.3220. Closing under 1.3185 would signal the bounce had ended. Otherwise, its next higher resistance is 1.3280.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s “inside day” should confirm that despite two lows this week each producing a $23 intraday rally, new sponsorship for a rally is not being attracted.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Closing Friday between 31.45-31.75 prevented a signal from triggering. The range-bound pattern still has room intraday up to 32.30 and down to 31.30 before chipping away entirely at resistance or support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s limited gains were a little shallow considering the broader stock market weakness. So, Friday’s stock market strength retraced Thursday’s gains, and then some. But session losses were limited into the close. Signals remain unchanged.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s gap up to probe above 104.70, further confirming that 102.25 will either hold as support to launch a new rally leg, or else break lower to fresh lows. Now 103.35 should hold as support to maintain the recovery’s potential — or at least be recovered immediately at Monday’s open.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) A shallow bounce Friday did not reject Thursday’s new lows. The next opportunity to signal a bottom forming can not come until Monday’s close.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight There’s something unnatural about Natural Gas. Thursday not only fell to new lows, but fell aggressively. The pattern does not allow a credible immediate recovery, so an immediate recovery attempt would be a compelling short.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s opening gap up repeated the ongoing pattern to now make a test of 79.50 likely. And unless recovered quickly, a break under 79.50 would target 79.15.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Yet another opening dip was recovered Thursday, this time back into positive territory. This is more of the same pattern already forming, making 1.3200‘s test likely — and now potentially 1.3295 if 1.3200‘s test were not rejected immediately.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Fresh lows down to 1631.20 at Thursday’s open all but confirmed that Tuesday’s $23 intraday recovery was not bullish. So, Thursday’s $23 intraday recovery should not be bullish either. That’s right, Gold rallied that much off the open’s low. It was retraced back under 1640.00. Closing under 1635.00 would further confirm the new downleg underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Recovering yet again from 31.45 to probe above 31.75 suggests that a bigger bounce must precede any credible downleg. A bigger bounce may even gain traction. But only two consecutive higher closes above 32.30 can prevent resolving down to fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Not having any active signal, a “flight-to-quality” was triggered Thursday by stock market weakness. But Tuesday’s 142-10 highs held the session-long test, despite starting the session only slightly lower at 142-00. The 141-06 sell signal is unchanged, and no buy signal is available.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) An intraday dip to 101.67 was recovered enough to end the day still testing 102.25. Holding its support would keep alive potential for triggering a buy signal above 103.35 and 104.70. Closing under 102.25 would target 98.95.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s gap down to new lows recovered only briefly during the weekly EIA report. And that reacted down sharply to much lower lows at 1.90. Still no bottom.

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