Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Half-hearted try. Thursday’s break to fresh lows was not confirmed Friday. This “ineffectual optimism” makes a fresh low likely, since Monday’s gap up only ranged sideways without bothering to fill the gap back to Thursday’s close. No earlier rally would be credible.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Could be game-changer. Friday’s session was “ineffectual pessimism.” Gap down and trade exclusively in negative territory, but without trending down. This suggests a fresh high will print Monday. Regardless, closing under  Friday’s 1733.00 low would suggest at least a multi-session corrective dip underway, or else a new downleg.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Time for a break. Having met its 33.50 target overnight, even more room was allowed for a pullback to refuel. But overnight and intraday dips were very shallow. There was room down to 34.60, or even to 33.20, but only 34.71 was touched momentarily. Target met, shallow pullback, no further gain… extending any higher would require extending higher without delay — and maintaining the gain through the close.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Refueling, for now. Bounce potential to 136’20 was tested, as was resistance at 137’00. Their 136’10 interim low was retested as support. Closing under it would have been bearish, so closing above 136’20 might allow a probe above 137’00 before resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Hiding out doesn’t reflect strength. Thursday’s inside day was followed by another Friday. This all but confirms Wednesday’s dip did gain traction, making a new downleg likely once the current consolidation range ends. That might require a momentary probe of fresh highs above 94.35. But any close under 90.75 would signal the new downleg already underway.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Up Monday, then up week. With Nov having filled its outstanding gap below after Thursday’s EIA report, Friday needed to rally to avoid trending to new lows. Just standing still would have been bearish. The open gapped up and the session extended higher, which would be very bullish if repeated Monday, as this market tends to do.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Why it won’t bottom. “The” deal sent the Euro sharply higher, while the Dollar tumbled to fresh lows. A second consecutive lower close would confirm lower lows to come. Not closing lower Friday would offer another opportunity to bottom. Regardless, Thursday’s opening gap down will need to be retested following a bounce back into Wednesday’s range.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Getting with the program that it started. Despite the Dollar’s tumble, Gold continued ranging around its 1724.00 resistance for an unseemly amount of time before finally breaking higher. A probe above 1800.00 is now likely so long as 1724.00 holds as support – and preferably without touching 1724.00 again first.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Don’t. Look. Down. Again. The pattern was unable to tolerate any weakness on the way to higher highs, so Thursday’s open rallied immediately and extended higher throughout the day. Unlike Wednesday’s close, Thursday’s gain does allow some room for retracement before fulfilling its 35.50 target. If a retracement is used, then 35.50 would be that much more difficult to break above durably.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) It only got heavier. Wednesday’s retest of 140’06 produced a gap down to new lows Thursday, and extended to 135’07. This is not the end, but the beginning — or, at least, a resumption. Next lower objectives are under 130’00 and 128’00… and lower.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Holding its ground. Gapping up Thursday proved that Wednesday’s drop had not gained traction. Tuesday’s 91.44 opening gap up was retested to neutralize its attraction. Now closing under 90.75 would signal a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Procrastination’s consequences. Unfinished business below was finally neutralized by filling the open gap back below. Closing lower Friday would all but require printing new, new lows. Not even rallying Friday might require that, too.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Rumbles. Headlines exploited Tuesday’s basing to trigger a surge back up to 76.80 prior lows. Its resistance held, but its reaction down held a healthy 61.8% retracement. Now recovering 76.80 again would trigger a buy signal targeting 79.00and then new highs above 80.40.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Treading water. Tuesday’s surge put into play a test of 1724.00. It was fulfilled early Wednesday, and a dip to 1711.00 recovered to afternoon fresh highs at 1728.00. The 1724.00 target ultimately held its retest as resistance. The rally may extend up to 1748.00 if not rejected almost immediately Thursday.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Don’t. Look. Down. Wednesday’s immediate fresh high wasn’t much higher, and its retracement still overlapped Tuesday’s range. In fact, the balance of the session simply ranged sideways. This is not a pattern likely to absorb too much of a dip, so its rally all but depends upon extending higher without delay.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Reminder: support is gone. The probes above 140’06 were pushed back to test 139’00. This was not impressive. Closing under 139’00 was, as it triggers the sell signal for a second time. Now, any delay in extending down — noticeably, not just trickling lower — would be bullish.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Patient sellers. Wednesday’s weak session did not gap down to form an Island. So, there is greater potential for a downleg to gain traction and to extend sharply lower. But only if Tuesday’s 94.11 opening gap can be filled Thursday, and its test react down to close under 90.50-90.75.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Past catching up with it. Wednesday’s weakness seems finally to be acknowledging the excessive optimism that has been avoiding the gap fill down to 3.53. Its test and recovery to close positive Thursday would help to launch a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Patience, patience. Tuesday firmed, but didn’t capitalize on Monday’s fresh lows not having gained any new traction. A buy signal maintained through the close would be that much more credible if triggered.

Gold Dec (GCZ) A bigger correction? The corrective bounce pattern was blown away by Tuesday’s sudden surge that extended $68 higher. There was no bearish reason to revisited 1687.20, so now 1724.00 is in-play.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Also corrective. The surge to new highs Tuesday probed prior highs around 33.00. It was still being tested into the close. A test of 35.50 is now in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Putting aside its own troubles. Stock market weakness facilitated a bounce off of 138’00, through 139’00. But 140’06 held another test as resistance to prevent a rally from gaining traction.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Tough to hold up. The rally’s objectives were already fulfilled, so Tuesday’s gap up could have put into play extended targets. Instead, the session ranged sideways from the open. This pattern very often forms an Island Reversal that gaps down and corrects for 2-3 days before recovering.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Denial. Tuesday’s session-long strength was “ineffectual optimism” that failed to gain traction. And it only further delays the inevitable, to fill the outstanding gap at fresh lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Pushing it. New lows overnight were retested intraday Monday. Their interim bounce had temporarily recovered positive territory at least long enough to avoid opening in negative territory. Closing back above the overnight low, instead of still testing it, would have confirmed there remained no unfinished business below to require extending the downtrend. Almost any immediate strength or positive close Tuesday above Friday’s 76.47 low would be credible for extending higher.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Hair trigger reaction. Monday’s gap up to fresh recovery highs filled an outstanding gap above. Two lower lows intraday each probe 1653.60 lower and lower, eventually closing under it to prevent the open’s buyers from gaining traction. Friday’s seeming rejection of Thursday’s drop continues to behave as only a corrective bounce, awaiting the decline’s resumption.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Though doth not protest enough. Monday’s gap up above Friday’s high extended higher intraday. But Monday’s opening print was still being tested at the close. This setup tends to suggest that the day’s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Almost any immediate weakness Tuesday would be likely at least to test 31.00, whose break would resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Clingy. Friday’s close under 139’00 did not extend down immediately or forcibly. Its overnight low probed under 138’00 by only 3 ticks. Not reacting up does still suggest the pattern if heavy, and moving only closer to breaking down.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) With friends like these... Last week’s sell-off had never signaled momentum reversing down. And that was potentially bullish for sellers having expended so much energy without gaining traction for their effort. The lack of follow-through to Khadafi’s fall was a tell. Gapping up and firming into the weekend was further rewarded by extending sharply higher Monday to 91.88.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Pause button is stuck. Monday’s inside day did not fill the outstanding gap below, or recover resistance above (let alone attack it).

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