Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The cost of delay. Thursday’s failure to confirm the buy signal made fresh lows likely. Friday quickly fulfilled the attraction, and closed under prior lows. Monday’s open can gap up above 76.80 and extend higher. Closing above 76.95 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) On second thought. Thursday’s steep gap down under 1636.50 was rejected by Friday’s gap up above 1636.50. The close (and most of the session) were still testing 1636.50, so it wasn’t necessarily recovered and Thursday’s break wasn’t necessarily invalidated. Closing back under 1627.50 would renew the sell signal.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Out, but still down. Friday’s gap up back above 31.00 certainly did not confirm Thursday’s sell signal. Neither did it extend higher to gain traction. And unlike Gold, Thursday’s high held as resistance. Another close under 31.00 would renew the sell signal.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) First, a trickle. Probes under 139’00 increased their chipping away at support to touch 138’00. The afternoon’s bounce held the resistance of “higher prior lows.” If Friday’s break is valid, then any initial weakness Monday should extend down substantially.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Sitting this one out.. Friday’s rally proved why Wednesday afternoon’s and Thursday morning’s sell-offs weren’t convincingly bearish. But Friday’s gap up to trade exclusively within Wednesday’s range wasn’t necessarily bullish. There is no active signal.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Impatient buyers are weak hands. Friday’s gap down and fresh lows confirmed that Wednesday and Thursday’s optimism was ineffectual. But only the gap back to Tuesday’s close was filled at the 3.55 low before recovering back into positive territory. Closing above 3.68-3.70 might get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher. Otherwise, the gap below at 3.51-3.53 should be filled next.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Too long to be short? Thursday’s gap down quickly recovered back above the 77.35 signal, and above Wednesday’s late high. Extending higher into the close confirmed the signal. A late dip back under the signal is trying to invalidate it, anyway.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Too bearish too quickly. Wednesday’s obligatory bounce from Tuesday’s test of obligatory support was rebuked instantly by Thursday’s gap down well under 1636.50. A third obligatory bounce is unlikely.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Too shiny to rally. Got caught up in Thursday’s metals dump, also falling to close at new relative lows and under its 31.00 sell signal. This followed an intraday bounce that neutralized attraction above by filling the gap back to Wednesday’s close. A second consecutive lower close would confirm

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Too tight to break. Ranged narrowly throughout Thursday between the 139’00-140’06 signals.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Too bad, so sad. Wednesday’s deep retracement that narrowly held 86.05 was blind-sided by Khadafi’s news. Support gave way to sharply lower lows testing 84.00, which almost recovered to 86.05. Difficult to be bearish here, but not necessarily bullish. Monitoring for another session.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Too much, too late. Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” greeted Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness. That didn’t prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Fresh lows for the week are likely.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Still teasing. Overnight dip filled gap back to Friday’s 76.95 close, and still recovered back above the 77.35 buy signal. A second consecutive higher close would confirm, but almost any further delay would suggest one more dip in-play to fresh lows.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Still in denial. Wednesday extended Tuesday’s obligatory bounce off of 1628.00-1636.00, but 1653.60 still held a probe as resistance. Its recovery would target 1677.00. Closing under 1636.50 should finally launch a new downleg.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Still ranging. Opening probe above 32.00 was reversed back to range’s ~31.25 lower-end. Closing under 30.70 would trigger a downleg. Its delay would keep alive potential for at least retesting 32.50 above.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Still stalling. Tuesday’s failed probes above 140’06 were followed Wednesday by failed probes under 139’00. First close beyond either is likely to extend sharply in that direction. Pattern still looks heavy.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Still deciding. Wednesday’s 89.45 high was rejected down to 86.00, but held 86.05 instead of signaling momentum reversing down, which now requires closing under 85.50.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Still. Ineffectual Optimism (gap up, entire session spent positive, but no relevant gain) does not greet EIA report from strength. But fresh low intraday under 3.53 that recovers to close positive above 3.59, preferably above 3.64, would be very bullish.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Cutting it close. Barely held on to Monday’s signal through Tuesday’s close after the late-day volatility, but follow-through Wednesday is required.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Context is king. Big gap down Tuesday and drop to new relative lows at 1628.00 confirms the past week’s testing of 1681.50 resistance has been distribution.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Close, but no cigar. Yet. Gapping down sharply Tuesday probed fresh lows. The intraday loss was recovered substantially, stopping short of the 32.00-32.50 range.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Still seems heavy. Probing above 140’06 resistance failed to close higher Tuesday, further suggesting that much bigger selling is on its way.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Not exactly a gusher. Friday’s recovery to prior highs didn’t extend higher Monday, but Tuesday’s session belatedly resumed the rally to fresh highs. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Square-one, again. Tuesday’s retracement back down to Friday’s 3.57 breakout point gives the pattern an opportunity to attempt another breakout. Recovering from a fresh low Wednesday to close back above 3.62 would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a healthy position.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Here it comes. Overnight strength on renewed Euro weakness tested the 77.30-77.35 buy signal as resistance (the Euro tested its comparable resistance). Immediate follow-through is the most appropriate confirmation.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Whack-a-gold. Monday’s initial strength extended Friday’s optimistic bounce to further probe above 1681.50. That doesn’t make it any more sustainable, or able to avoid returning down to 1653.60 and 1636.50.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Sitting this one out. Hunkered down safely in a range defined by 32.00-32.50 may be a safe place to hide, but not for very long.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Seems heavy. Fresh lows under 137’20 Sunday night reversed up in a flight-to-safety as stocks fell apart. The recovery extended to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 139’14 close. Friday’s trapped sellers could have been exploited a little more, but weren’t. Holding 140’06 as resistance makes the drop extra vulnerable to extending down sharply.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) About that recovery. Despite having recovered to close above 86.05 Friday, Monday did not close higher to confirm the signal. Sunday night’s high tested a fresh high up to 88.18, and Monday’s dip under Friday’s low to 86.88 didn’t extend down. But Friday’s breakout should have extended higher Monday if it were valid.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Non-confirmation. Just closing above 3.70 Monday would have confirmed Friday’s 3.57 signal. Despite extending higher initially Sunday night to 3.77, the regular session weakened. At least the close held 3.62 to allow another fresh high to be credible for resuming the rally.

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