Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Mixed signals. Closing above 77.30-77.35 would point higher, as there is now no unfinished business below. Perhaps the only problem to recovering here is that Mondays in currencies tend to duplicate Fridays. Regardless, Monday is unlikely to stand still, and should either extend down, or reverse up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Sound and fury. Friday’s session expended a lot of buying pressure without buyers gaining traction for their efforts. Both the open and close were still testing 1681.50, and this followed Thursday’s optimistically shallow dip that barely pierced Monday-Tuesday low before bouncing.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Breaking upward is hard to do. After closing Friday back above 32.00, sellers didn’t gain any traction for their effort last  week. Closing above 32.50 would get another benefit of the doubt for extending higher.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Still no takers. Friday’s open gapped down from one end of the range to the other, from the recent bounce high to its prior low. This setup does not gain traction. But the setup wasn’t necessarily rejected, so gapping down under 138’oo would be credible for extending down. Perhaps recovery was delayed by weekend’s impending illiquidity, which would be proved by gapping up Monday above 139’00 and extending to 142’00 if not also 142’22.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Up, up, or away. Friday’s open gapped up at or above 86.05 and probed fresh highs throughout the day. The session never really extended higher until post close. Regardless, it is a breakout until proved otherwise (for example, by closing back under 86.05 Monday), creating potential to 90.95.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Traction? Traction. Friday’s gap up tested the 3.57 buy signal through late morning, before extending sharply higher into the close. This is a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Mondays — so, not extending higher Monday would be  bearish.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Bubbling up. Thursday’s open gapped up from Wednesday’s session-long decline to new relative lows. There is a lot of magnetic attraction back to such a low, so the setup can’t tolerate any delay in extending higher. This setup did, and it was retraced back into Wednesday’s range. A fresh low under Wednesday’s 77.12 low isn’t required before bottoming, but it would help to confirm that closing positive had reversed momentum up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Shaky support. Wednesday’s test of 1681.50 (up to 1694.00) was rejected by gapping down Thursday to Monday-Tuesday’s 1671.00-1676.00 highs. Monday-Tuesday’s 1658.00 lows touched, and held, but their support was never really probed before holding. That’s somewhat optimistic behavior for such a big intraday drop. Closing above 1672.00 would resume the rally, which is otherwise vulnerable to being retraced.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Big rejection. Wednesday’s gap up above 32.50 and close above it were rejected by Thursday’s gap down under Wednesday’s 32.24 low. Closing under 32.00 was not helpful, but its recovery Friday would still signal that sellers were absorbed. Otherwise, closing under 31.00 in this pattern would seriously undermine the recovery effort, because it would trigger a larger downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Make, or break. Firming after Thursday’s Jobless Claims. The gap back to Tuesday’s 139’29 close was filled, and the balance of the session consolidated back to Tuesday afternoon’s 139’17 lows. If Friday’s open can avoid almost immediately resuming the decline, then the bounce should extend higher to141’08 or 142’00. Closing back under 139’00 would resume the decline.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Round One. Thursday’s open gapped down under the prior three sessions’ lows. The last of those session, Wednesday, had failed to extend Tuesday’s recovery from below Monday’s low to above Monday’s high. Closing Friday under Thursday’s 83.17 low would extend the decline targeting 77.00-78.00. But now a close above 86.05 would target 90.95.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Nine lives, and counting. Wednesday’s intraday decline had left the session prone in greeting Thursday’s EIA report. Its reaction was a spike down to new lows at 3.45 that recovered to close well into positive territory and back above prior lows. Extending above 3,57 would trigger a buy signal targeting 3.78 and potentially 3.85.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Make it quit. Wednesday’s gap down to fresh lows continued to exploit the ongoing lack of buy signal during the week-long decline. And the session trended down, ultimately testing 77.20 as support. Closing above 77.60 would reverse momentum up, but probably not before probing at least one more low intraday.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Like moving a mountain. Tuesday’s buyers had gained no traction, but neither had sellers. A strong rally overnight extended higher to retest 1681.50 up to 1694.00, which was still being tested into the close. But if the pattern does not reverse down immediately, then it is vulnerable to exploding sharply higher to 1725.50.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Making up for lost time. Wednesday’s open succeeded where Monday and Tuesday’s session failed, by recovering 32.50. But it was recovered by gapping up to 33.00, getting ahead of itself to require a dip to 33.24. The close recovered 32.50, leaving untested the opening gap above, making the rally likely to resume to its 33.15 and 35.50 targets.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Drip… drip… drip... Tuesday’s failure to recover above Monday’s range resolved by gapping down Wednesday back to Tuesday’s low. The 137’30 low stopped short of touching 137’20 support, whose break would extend the decline at an accelerated pace.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) What’s the hold-up. Wednesday’s narrow range undermines the rally’s momentum, especially after Tuesday’s recovered dip should have refueled it. Gapping down under 83.15-83.20 would still be the clearest pattern (Island Reversal) to retrace back to the lows. Any lesser weakness would be suspicious.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Strike two. Like last Thursday’s potential recovery setup, Tuesday’s close needed only a fresh high the following day to trigger a rally. Like last Friday’s session, Wednesday only trended down. This is not a healthy spot to greet Thursday’s EIA report.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Patient buyers? Tuesday’s opening bounce tested 78.25 resistance, but did not recover it, which would have reversed momentum up. Closing back under Monday’s 77.67 low would instead signal the downleg extending. But holding the intraday test of 77.80 support keeps the window open to a recovery.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Not so fast. The retest of last week’s 1681.50 overnight resistance test also occurred overnight Monday. Tuesday’s open was already reversing down to Monday’s 1657.50 low. Its test launched a temporary bounce that filled the gap back to Monday’s close, whose reaction fell back to session lows.

Silver Dec (SIZ) False start. Monday’s recovery from testing 31.12 support stopped short of 32.50, whose recovery would have resumed the rally. Its test overnight came too late, and Tuesday’s open tested 31.38 support. Closing positive back above 32.00 helped to absorb more selling pressure, but 32.50‘s recovery woulds still be bullish.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) No takers. Tuesday’s gap up to Friday’s 140’08-140’10 lows was retraced enough to fill the gap back to Monday’s 139’19 close. The gap held as support throughout the afternoon and into the close, but never produced fresh session highs. A bounce would target 142’22, so long as 137’16 were not tested as support.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Island hopping? Monday’s gap up was not rejected, despite Tuesday’s open gapping down. Last week’s “lower prior highs” weren’t touched, so gapping down deeply enough could still form an Island reversal.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Do you believe in second chances? Last Thursday’s reversal setup never produced a fresh high that would have triggered a rally. Now the interim dip to new lows has recovered back to Thursday’s close. Almost any positive print would be credible for gaining traction to extend higher, and to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Conflict Dollar. Apparently the pullback had not yet ended. Friday’s intraday dip under both 78.90 and 78.50 was recovered to close positive. But that didn’t prevent gapping down Monday under Friday’s low. So, the pattern is in conflict, with Monday rejecting Friday’s buyers that had absorbed sellers. Monday’s drop did fill the gap back to 77.80 and hold it, so closing above 78.25 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Breaking free, not out. Thursday and Friday’s repeated bouncing between 1636.50-1653.60 resolved Monday by gapping up above the range. The afternoon’s fresh high failed to close above the morning’s high. That should help a retest of last week’s 1681.50 overnight high to hold.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Recovery, not. Monday’s gap up proved that Friday afternoon’s dive had not gained traction. But Monday’s close under 32.50 stopped short of signaling that momentum had reversed up. One more day is allowed to launch a rally, or else the recovery has a problem.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) A little much. Friday’s drop extended down Monday by gapping under Friday’s low. Holding a test of 139’00 intraday suggests that the gap back to Friday’s 141’12 close will be filled before extending down. But a close under 137’16 would renew the decline’s momentum.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Shifting paradigms. Saudis announced no need to raise oil production, helping to trigger a gap up to fresh highs. Not just any fresh highs, but above an already outsized corrective bounce. In fact, the whole “corrective bounce” interpretation is jeopardized. Only gapping back down under 84.00 would immediately signal momentum reversing down, turning Monday’s session into an Island. Otherwise, the next pullback would itself be the correction, accelerating the schedule for a new upleg.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Turnabout is fair-play. Monday’s session oddly did not duplicate Friday’s downtrend to new lows, which is unusual for this market. Of course, Friday’s session already oddly did not exploit Thursday’s recovery setup. Still monitoring for a new pattern.

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