Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Fully refueled, ready for lift-off. The original rally’s targets had been 79.50 and 78.90. This week’s pullback extended Friday down to test both, and then recovered both through the close. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Closing positive. Recovering 79.62 would target 81.85 and 83.25.

Gold Dec (GCZ) More noise, and lots of it. Thursday’s positive close was in the process of testing 1653.60 resistance, and lacked a signal currently. Fresh highs Friday morning up to 1668.00 were eventually reversed down sharply to 1627.60. The close was still testing 1636.50 support, so the pattern still lacks a current signal.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Too young to die. Friday’s opening surge to 32.85 was consolidated through the morning back down to 32.00. Then the bottom fell out to 30.71 on Italy’s downgrade news. At least the close was still testing 31.12, a 61.8% retracement of Thursday’s session-long rally. Closing above 31.90 would resume the rally, targeting 33.15 and 35.50. Closing under 30.70 would invalidate Thursday’s breakout leg.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Digging a hole. The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report spiked down through the drop’s 141’25 target to its next support at 140’10. After bouncing, RSIs diverged positively on its retest to launch a corrective bounce having potential to 142’22. It already probed above 141’25 intraday. By still closing under 141’25, 142’22‘s test now would be likely to reverse down sharply.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Extended. The week’s bounce had already extended beyond the corrective target that I expected to hold. But it tested the highest calculable corrective target Friday at 83.15-83.20. Then closing back under 82.70 would have robbed buyers of their traction, but it was still being tested at the close. Regardless, a close under 80.25 is still needed to reverse momentum down.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) False alarm. Friday’s pivot-reversal like setup could have launched a substantial corrective bounce. It required confirmation from one more consecutive higher close Friday. Instead the open gapped down and new trend lows were probed. The 3.33 and 3.20 targets remain likely.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Once more. The corrective dip that began Wednesday extended down, gapping up in the interim at Thursday’s open. Had the gap up first tested 80.05 before reversing down, then Thursday’s sellers might be strong sponsorship. It did not, so they probably aren’t. Closing back above 79.65 would resume the rally, so long as the dip does not close back under 78.90.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Stuck. The bounce’s 1653.60 target was met overnight Thursday. It was retested in the afternoon following an intraday dip back down to 1636.50 support. None of which is bearish, but a close above the morning’s high would have signaled the trend was likely to extend higher. It is otherwise lacking a signal currently.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Lift-off. Thursday’s gap up extended higher throughout the day, reflecting accumulation that is targeting 33.15 and 35.50 so long as 30.90 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Ducking the news. Wednesday’s decline extended into Thursday’s close at 142’14. Closing under 143’06 put into play a retest of 141’25, with Friday’s Employment Situation report just ahead. Closing below the target would seal a top.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Getting silly. The corrective rally extended through its 81.05-81.10 target to attack the next higher target at 83.15-83.20. A reaction down from its test intraday could close under 80.25. Closing any higher would undermine the rally as being only a correction.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Detour up? Thursday’s new trend low intraday was recovered to close positive. CME lowered margins after the close. It had no effect on price action, but recovering 3.62 would target 3.77 and possibly 3.84 before resuming the decline.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The pause that refreshes. Wednesday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the minimum pullback target of 79.62. This clears the way for resuming the upleg. Closing above 80.05 would next target 81.85 and 83.25.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Still holding support. Yet another test of 1620.00 has held. Recovering 1636.50 put into play a retest of 1653.60 resistance. While its recovery would trigger a retest of 1681.50, there would be a greater likelihood of resuming the decline.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Feeling the pressure. Wednesday’s recovery to close back above 30.00 correctly failed to confirm Tuesday’s fresh low close. It also stopped short of filling the gap back up to Monday’s close. Buying pressure should now be so compressed that it is ready to explode upward toward its 33.15 and 35.50 targets. Closing under 29.70 would invalidate the setup.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Going once… Going twice... Fresh lows overnight down to 143’28 probed under Tuesday’s 144’05 low. Lower lows intraday tested 143’12. Now closing under 143’06 would trigger a retest of 141’25, whose break would trigger a new downleg.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Signs of a bottom. Unlike Monday’s similar pattern, Tuesday’s new low close resolved by gapping up Wednesday. The balance of the session extended up to probe Monday’s 79.65 high by 20 cents. There is potential for extending the bounce to 81.05-81.10, possibly even to 83.15-83.20. Closing back under 77.40 would trigger a retest of the lows.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) No rest for… Despite gapping up at Wednesday’s open, a reversal down fulfilled the pattern’s required third new low close close. The delay still makes at least one more, if not two more, new low close closes likely before reversing up. The next major target is 3.33, but 3.20 may need to be touched, too.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Just hanging. Tuesday’s session ranged around Monday’s closing test of 80.05. It was still being tested at Tuesday’s close, too. A pullback to 79.62 is likely, but not a decline, not without closing under 79.62 for two consecutive sessions.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Consequences. Monday’s gap up from testing 1620.00 extended higher overnight to 1681.50 resistance. But it was doomed to failure eventually without ever having established an uptrend. In fact, Tuesday’s close fell back under 1600.00. A second consecutive close under 1620.00 would still signal a new downleg underway, at least to test 1592.50 and 1555.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Still holding its own. Tuesday’s session left outstanding the gap back to Monday’s 30.95 close to attract price higher. And Tuesday’s lower close did not gain traction to create unfinished business below. Closing above 30.32 would trigger an upleg targeting 33.15, with potential to 35.50.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Solid resistance. Tuesday needed to close above 146’00 to renew the rally beyond its 145’10 target. But a probe well above 146’00 reversed down to 144’05. The close recovered to retest the original 145’10 target, and to re-allow a buy signal above 146’10. But now closing under 144’05 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Now the wait. Tuesday’s gap down repeated the overnight fulfillment of finally retesting August’s actual low. A bounce repeated Monday’s pattern of filling the gap to the prior day’s close, and also its pattern of reacting back down into negative territory. Finally, also similar to Monday, the morning’s lows were not probed, so the pattern was not “ineffectual pessimism,” which means the decline’s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Foregone conclusion. Friday’s new low close, confirmed by Monday’s lower close, all but requires an eventual third lower close. It’s not necessarily the next consecutive day, and it was not. That tends to mean another several lower new low closes to come.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Make, or break. Monday’s open gapped up to its 79.40 prior high, before extending through it. This is important because an immediate reversal down may leave no unfinished business above. The session’s high held a test of 80.05 resistance, but closing above it Tuesday would extend the rally anyway, next targeting 81.85. Otherwise, closing under 78.75 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 77.80.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Suspicious. Gapping up Monday above 1653.60 didn’t extend higher, and the balance of the session only ranged around 1653.60. Its valid recovery would have reversed momentum up. This is suspicious. It may serve the more likely purpose of lifting the anvil to drop it from a greater height, since three consecutive days only tested the decline’s 1620.00 confirmation instead of closing under it.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Holding its own. Gapping up and ranging sideways seems similar to Gold’s intraday pattern, but price action remained well within the recent sessions’ range. Copper meanwhile only recovered from gapping down to fresh lows. Gold’s outperformance Monday seems to have been fueled by other metals — not good for Gold when Silver and Copper aren’t trading off in reaction.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Target met. Monday’s 3-1/2 point rally fulfilled the 145’10 bounce target, which held through the pit close. Falling stocks brought bonds higher to 145’21, but now a close above 146’00 is the minimum requirement to avoid topping.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Spitting distance. Monday’s gap down to new relative lows was retraced back into positive territory to fill the gap back to Friday’s close. The gap held as resistance, but its reaction down stopped optimistically short of retesting the morning’s low. That last factor prevented the pattern from being a potentially bullish “ineffectual pessimism.” The minimum objective of retesting August’s 76.61 low is intact.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Gaining traction. Mondays in this market tend to duplicate Friday’s price action, so trending down to a new low fulfilled expectations. And being the second consecutive lower close, at least a third lower close is required — often at least the following day.

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