Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Too much, too soon. Friday’s gap up above 48.90 resistance extended back into the high’s range, filling the gap back to Monday’s 79.00 close. The session still held 78.90. Now filling back to the gap below at 77.80 is likely to launch a new downleg, instead of making a new rally leg possible.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Go into the light. An overnight rally was retraced back down to 1620.00, which launched another bounce instead of breaking lower. Now 1620.00 has no further predictive value. Closing under 1616.00 and 1605.00 would signal the downleg having resumed. Closing above 1636.50 and 1653.60 would trigger a bigger bounce.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Standing still on principle. Ranging around 30.00 Friday stopped short of probing Thursday’s low, while Gold did not. The relative outperformance continues to suggest that Silver’s bottom will be less destructive going forward

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) While the iron’s hot. Friday’s opening surge extended the rally off of Wednesday’s low, filling the gap back to Monday’s 142’28 close under to 143’06. While there remains potential up to 145’10, the bounce would end upon closing again under 141’25.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Onward and downward. Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism” resolved down by gapping down in a test of 80.00. There was almost no follow-through intraday, which would have formed “ineffectual pessimism.” But a late break lower did extend down to 78.77 to prove the decline had resumed.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) That was then. Thursday’s complete recovery of the reaction to the morning’s EIA report was itself rejected by dropping to new lows into the weekend. This market tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Mondays, so recovering would be considered bullish.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) It doesn’t go that far. Initial weakness Thursday stopped short of probing fresh lows. Instead, the pattern firmed. It may yet continue firming to retest 78.90 before first filling the gap back to last Friday’s 77.80 close.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Unmovable. Thursday’s $26 range fluctuated around unchanged, and closed around unchanged. Unchanged is around 1620.00, whose break would confirm a deeper dip is underway. Its next target remains 1592.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Hardening. Thursday’s choppy session still closed while testing its relevant 30.00 level, equilibrium that suggests the next trending attempt will fail.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Once more for the fun of it. Thursday’s open exploited Wednesday’s recovery back above Tuesday’s 140’25 lows. Its opening strength extended eventually up to 142’05. Closing above 141’25 puts into play potential to 145’10. Closing higher for  second consecutive day Friday would confirm.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Thanks for playing. Thursday’s open gapped up above 82.00 and tested Wednesday’s ~84.00 highs as resistance, then retraced to close back at 82.00. It doesn’t get any more optimistic: gap up, probe prior high, spend entire session in positive territory. Except for not also closing above the prior high that was probed. Instead of being bullish, the session’s “ineffectual optimism” is bearish on a close under 81.75.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) No reaction to news is good news. Wednesday’s close did not greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position strength. And Thursday’s reaction did not rally. But at least its reaction was not bearish, which may allow the bounce to meet its 3.88 objective.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Not yet an opportunity. Wednesday was premature to already recover from Tuesday’s corrective dip to “lower prior highs” around 78.00. So the intraday bounce back up to Tuesday’s ~78.50 high held as resistance. And being unlikely to gain traction, the bounce’s sponsorship was probably weak hands — and likely to fail. A deeper dip filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s 77.80 close is now likely.

Gold Dec (GCZ) A missed opportunity. Tuesday’s failure to clearly recover 1653.60 reacted down Wednesday. Before closing under the 1636.50 sell signal, intraday lows had already probed under the signal’s 1620.00 confirmation. The break has already extended down to within $10 of filling the gap back to Monday’s 1592.50 close, presumably on the way to the drop’s 1555.00 objective.

Silver Dec (SIZ) A rally opportunity. As with Gold, Wednesday’s session-long decline ended the day testing Monday afternoon’s highs as support. It bottomed upon filling the gap back to Monday’s 30.00 close. Extending under 29.80 would signal the decline extending down to 28.30. Closing back above 34.20 would suggest the drop had ended.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) A recovery opportunity. Wednesday’s open didn’t gap down, so the pullback probably wasn’t becoming a bigger downleg. That didn’t prevent fresh lows intraday down to 139’28. But its context did require recovering to close back within Tuesday’s range, which was done back to 141’00. Closing above 141’12 would signal another bounce underway, targeting 145’10. But almost any lower close would extend the decline.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Another downleg opportunity. The corrective bounce into Tuesday had extended somewhat above expectations to 84.70, but that didn’t change it from being only a correction. RSIs diverged negatively into the high’s retest, ending the corrective bounce which then reversed down sharply into and out of the close to fill the gap back to Monday’s 80.78 close. Closing under 79.60 would signal the decline was extending to its 76.60 objective.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) A bounce opportunity. No bounce Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. But the dip to 3.75 didn’t gain traction. Closing above 3.82 would signal a bigger bounce underway targeting 4.00.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) It’s a start. Gapping down under 78.50 confirmed the pullback underway to test last week’s “lower prior highs” in the 78.00 area. The balance of the session extended down for the test. It is premature to expect one day’s decline to fulfill the correction.

Gold Dec (GCZ) “A” for effort. Monday evening’s rally from 1598.00 extended up to 1679.00 overnight. Intraday action fought to maintain much of the gain. But the close was still testing 1653.60 whose recovery would have sealed a bottom. A fresh high would target 1680.00, but closing under 1636.50 and confirmed under 1620.00 would target 1555.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Position of strength. Closing Tuesday above Friday’s high probably sealed a bottom, or at least made any new sell-off likely to be absorbed and reversed into a more durable upleg. A pullback to at least 30.50 is likely, regardless.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Decision time. The 141’25 pullback limit was probed by more than 1 point intraday Tuesday. A bounce into the close stopped short of recovering 141’25, but closing back above 142’10 would trigger a bounce targeting 145’10. If the pullback hasn’t ended, then it isn’t a pullback, and a gap down under the 140’00 area would be likely.
Crude Oil Nov (CLX) A little much. Tuesday’s highs exceeded the pattern’s corrective bounce targets. The recent “higher prior lows” at 85.17 were attacked to within 30 cents. That’s much closer than I expected — filling the gap before reversing to new lows would leave no unfinished business above  to attract price back up. This bounce might yet extend to 86.40 if not rejected already Wednesday morning.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Just looking. Fresh highs at Tuesday’s open did not extend intraday. The session did not turn negative, so the bounce seems to be sponsored by patient buyers. Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from closing Wednesday above 3.86, without yet testing 3.88, would likely resolve up. Anything else is much less predictable, but still capable of forming a bottom.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) A bigger dip in store. A fresh high was reversed to close back under 78.90. Closing under 78.50 would trigger a deeper dip back to the past two weeks’ upper-end down in the 78.00 area.

Gold Dec (GCZ) A window is closing. The 1636.50 pre-open test reacted down, and retraced 50% of the recovery from the 1535.00 overnight low. Post-close action has rallied back to 1630.00, but it’s just noise without closing above 1636.50. And it doesn’t prevent another downdraft to 1575.00. But a close above 1654.00 would trigger a much bigger rally.

Silver Dec (SIZ) A window is open. Recovering 30.50 would have signaled momentum reversing up, and it was tested through the afternoon. But the close was still ranging around it instead of clearly triggering its signal. Gapping Tuesday up above 31.40 could extend the bounce to 32.20 and 33.50.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Almost an afterthought. The reaction from testing 145’02 (up to 145’10) extended down to 142’27. Extending further would target 141’25, so long as bounces hold 144’00.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Holding its own. Monday’s close was testing the 80.00 area as support, backing off from 81.25. The bounce should test 82.65 before another dip that fulfills the decline’s final objective. But extending the dip back under 80.00 would trigger that next downleg.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) The meek shall inherit a relief rally. Gapping up from 3.70 and surging higher to test 3.80 was somewhat of a reward for having ignored other markets’ overnight ranging. More so, it was the reward for Thursday and Friday’s fresh lows not gaining traction. The bounce can extend to 3.88 on this leg, and before a bigger rally were to gain traction.

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