Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tired. Friday’s negative close did not confirm Thursday’s breakout. This market tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Mondays, so trending is unlikely to resume. An attempt to extend the rally would likely fail, more harshly on Tuesday if not by Monday’s close. Otherwise, the pattern is more likely to attack its “lower prior highs” down to 78.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Dead (cat bounce). Friday’s historic day tested the decline’s lowest calculable target at 1636.50 by $5. Closing back above 1653.60 would have triggered a bounce up to 1736.00, whether immediate or following a retest of Friday’s lows Monday. The regular close stopped $7 short — before extending to 1661.50. The setup would still be valid if fulfilled Monday… The CME raised margin requirements after the close.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Over-extended. Friday’s open immediately tested targets at 33.25 and 32.40. The next target range at 29.00-30.45 was probed, and held through the close. Gapping up Monday above 33.25 would be likely to test 36.70… The CME raised margin requirements after the close.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) caption. RSIs diverged negatively into Friday’s retest of 146’12 up to 147’00. Its reaction fell to 144’12 after hours. Closing 1 tick lower would have sealed a top. Instead, a bounce is likely to test 145’02 before dipping any further. Gapping down under 143’08 would form an Island Reversal. Closing above 145’20 would trigger a new upleg targeting 150’08.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) caption. Thursday’s test of 81.00 extended down to 77.55 Friday. That retested at least the Aug 9 intraday low. The Aug 8 76.61 overnight low remains in-play. Since Friday’s close recovered back above Thursday’s lows, a detour above 82.00 would not be surprising.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) caption. Friday’s “inside day” followed Thursday’s new low that did not extend down. Sellers don’t seem to be gaining any traction. None of which is a buy signal, but a probe of new lows under 3.66 that recovers to close above 3.75 would be likely to 3.92.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Over achiever. Thursday’s open gapped up through its 78.50 and 78.90 ttargets. A second consecutive higher close would signal a much stronger trend underway. Regardless of intraday action, closing negative would be the first step to ending the rally.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Ruling out one path. Another big plunge Thursday followed two consecutive inside days. The last was last Thursday. Its resolution is unlikely to repeat, since two consecutive similar setups rarely do. And last week’s setup reacted up immediately, making an immediate bounce likely to fail quickly. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Just when there’s no end in sight. Hardly any weakness from 143’02 preceded extending sharply higher to the 145’14 objective. There is potential for extending up to 146’12 and even to 147’28, so long as pullbacks hold 144’12.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Making up for lost time. Wednesday’s close under 85.15 wasted no time extending down Thursday to the 81.00 objective. The velocity all but assures a lower low, dooming any bounce to failure.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Enough already. Another fresh low Thursday largely retraced into the close keeps alive potential for a corrective rally. But none has yet been signaled.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Getting closer. Reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement finally produced the gap-fill back to last Monday’s 78.21 close. So long as pullbacks now hold 77.55 as support, 78.50 and potentially 78.90 remain in-play.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Lots of sales, little traction. Buyers never gained traction with a close above 1826.00, let alone recovering  1835.00. Wednesday’s reaction to the FOMC announcement sent price back down to test 1781.50 support. Closing any lower would trigger another sell signal, much likelier to extend down since last week’s similar signal held its test of 1753.70. For the same reason, recovering 1798.50 would make 1826.00‘s retest likely, and likely to at least retest 1835.00, too.

Silver Dec (SIZ) The pause that refreshes. The post-close drop tested 39.50-39.75 as support. Closing any lower Thursday would signal a new downleg is underway. But recovering to close above 40.50 would target at least 41.50-41.75.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Careful what you ask for. Finally, a probe above 142’00. And also a reaction down. But that all came before Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. The news reaction spiked up to test 143’02, which did satisfy a relevant target. Nevertheless, spikes up don’t reverse down immediately and durably. So, an immediate reversal down Thursday would not be durable. A top would likelier form by backing and filling, or by probing higher briefly intraday. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close would target the break’s next higher objective at 145’14.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Only a formality now. Uptrending support’s test down to ~85.15 last Monday has now been retested twice. Closing under it would signal a new downleg underway. Otherwise, closing above 87.05 would target 92.25. This being the second test of 85.15, a lower close is likely, and likely to test 81.00.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Benefit of little doubt. Tuesday’s inside day didn’t capitalize on Monday not having confirmed Friday’s break to new lows. So, Wednesday resumed the break to lower lows. A second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Slow-playing it. Tuesday’s modest gap down quickly flipped up into positive territory, but the balance of the session only ranged narrowly. So long as 77.35 continues to hold pullbacks, the gap back to last Monday’s 78.21 close, and 78.50 and potentially 78.90 are still in-play.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Not so fast. Where Monday’s close under 1781.50 signaled a new downleg underway, Tuesday’s gap up above 1781.50 undermined the signal. The session could have reversed down to close negative, and then confirm Monday’s signal. It did not. The bounce extended up to nearly 1815.00, and must recover 1826.00 to signal an upleg underway.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Another bounce? Tuesday’s gap up back above 39.40 has left unfinished business below. Closing above 40.30 would have signaled a detour up to 41.00first, but 40.30 held as resistance intraday. Not triggering a signal despite being tested does make the opposite outcome likely. Tuesday’s tested two signals in opposing directions, making some sort of consolidation likely for now.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Waiting it out. Monday’s pierce above prior highs was not rejected Tuesday. A modest gap down was easily absorbed. The balance of the session was largely contained within Monday’s narrow range. A fresh high above 142’00 remains likely, and it remains likely to reverse down sharply.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Ready to break. Monday’s test of the 85.00 prior low didn’t break lower Tuesday. But it wasn’t exactly rejected. An intraday bounce up to 87.46 ended the day at 86.80 resistance. Now a fresh low under 85.00 would be very likely to extend down, initially targeting 81.50-81.75. Recovering 88.70 would target at least 92.00.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Missed opportunity. Tuesday’s session didn’t exploit Monday’s recovery from fresh lows. So, although sellers were undermined, buyers essentially undermined themselves. The “inside day” could still resolve up, but a close above 3.92 is needed before buyers gain traction.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Closing in. Thursday’s coordinated intervention met the weekend’s headline discord, triggering a gap up Sunday night. The gap back to last Monday’s 78.21 close should still attract price higher, on the way to 78.50 and possibly 78.90.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Game on. The failed tests of 1835.00 resistance reacted down Monday, sliding sharply through the recovery’s 1798.50 pullback limit. Ultimately, the low touched 171.00 and closed under last week’s 1781.50 support. Unless rejected immediately by closing back above 1798.50, the drop may find obligatory support at 1753.70 on the way to new lows targeting 1681.50 and potentially 1636.50.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Square-one. Monday’s low completed the retracement back to August’s low, and effectively took a new interim high off the table. So long as 39.55 holds tests as resistance, 37.60-37.65 is now targeted, and potentially 34.60.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Last gasp. Never having closed under 139’00, the pattern was vulnerable to attracting buyers in a flight-to-safety as stocks tumbled Sunday night. Monday’s gap up above 141’00 ranged up to the 141’28 prior high. The close was not above prior highs, which is in-line with expectations for a brief new high above 142’00 that finally launches a more productive downleg.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Letting go. The elongated Rising Wedge’s lower-end finally broke Monday. It tested the uptrend’s prior touch, which was last Sunday night at 85.00. Closing any lower would get every benefit of the doubt for extending down. But avoiding a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would keep alive potential for a recovery to fresh highs testing 92.00.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Home, home in the range. Monday’s gap down to new lows would have confirmed Friday’s break. Except that it reversed to close positive, back above 3.82 prior lows. That’s not enough to merit a buy signal without also closing above 3.92, but it certainly undermines the attempt to launch a new downleg.

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