Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Nice try. Friday’s opening gap up retraced all of Thursday’s intervention dive. But that wasn’t enough to form an Island of it. At least the session’s narrow range hovered pessimistically just under 77.35, which had been the pullback limit until Thursday. This being a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s characteristics on Monday, opening strength should extend higher. The gap back to Monday’s 78.21 close would be targeted, on the way to 78.50 or 78.90. But closing under Thursday’s 76.25 close would signal a bigger downleg underway.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Gapping from an inside day can end this way. Gapping up Friday eventually gained momentum to test 1798.50 resistance. Its break higher attacked Wednesday’s 1826.30 close up to 1825.00. That’s a lot of optimism to stop pessimistically short of even filling its gap, let alone probing it as would be natural. Now, so long as 1798.50 were to hold pullbacks as support, the recovery can extend back to prior highs.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Not this time. Friday’s opening gap up back above Monday’s 40.07 low extended higher intraday to attack 41.00. Just closing above 40.50 triggers an upleg targeting 44.00, so long as 40.40 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Lack of conviction. Initial weakness Friday morning retested Thursday’s 138’23 low by 1 tick. The morning’s sole econ report sparked a surge that quickly settled into ranging around 139’20. This backing-and-filling isn’t gaining traction. A close under 139’00 would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending further to 137’16. But closing above 140’06 remains possible, and it would target new highs above 142’00.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Get a room already. Wednesday and Thursday’s relatively narrow ranging still did not break to new highs above 90.20, let alone to my 92.00 objective. Instead, Friday dropped yet again back to test the same uptrending support that has supported three other dips since the trendline originated on Aug 8. And it held again, this time down to 87.00. Assuming that 86.90 isn’t broken, especially through a close, bounce potential to 92.00 remains alive.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) One step forward, two steps back. After filling the gap back down to Monday’s 3.89 close Thursday, a recovery above 3.95 could have confirmed sellers gained no traction for their effort. The alternative was to launch a new downleg. The only way to extend the trend when its sponsorship gained no traction is to gap. So, instead of recovering Friday, the open gapped down under prior lows and extended to 3.79. Since this is a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Monday, it is vulnerable to extending down. For the same reason, not extending down would when it could — and even should — would allow the lower-end of the range to launch a recovery back to its upper-end.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Recovery intervention. Did Thursday’s intervention extend the Dollar Index’s pullback? Wednesday’s close was already testing the 77.35 pullback limit, so Thursday’s extra drop must be recovered immediately to avoid gaining traction. The gap back to Monday’s 78.21 close can still attract price up to fresh highs targeting 78.50 or 78.90.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Rogue operation. An overnight slide from 1826.00 produced a deep gap down to test 1781.00. Its early test was tested throughout the afternoon, too. Extending down would next target 1770.00, then sharply lower. Otherwise, back above 1798.50 would suggest at least the gap back to Wednesday’s 1826.00 close will be filled. Gapping up above 1813.00 would form an Island Reversal of Thursday’s session.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Attacking the point of no return. The failure ultimately to recover 40.95 has slid to attack three week old lows down to 39.40. Closing under 39.15 would signal a bigger downleg underway targeting 37.25 and 36.00. Recovering 40.50 would now be able to trigger an upleg targeting 44.00.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Noise, but getting louder. Thursday morning’s retest of the 139’20 sell signal extended down to test 139’00 throughout the day. Closing any lower would confirm a test of 137’16 is in-play, and potentially trigger a new downleg. Closing decisively above 140’06 would put into play a probe above 142’00.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Still sitting this one out. Wednesday’s rest extended into Thursday. The range’s upper-end stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 90.20 close. Fresh highs at 92.00 are all but assured.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) So much for that. Tumbling in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was hardly consistent with having closed so sharply above 4.00. At least it only retraced two days of gains, and filled the gap back to Monday’s 3.89 close. But the recovery attempt was rejected, so the rejection must itself be rejected by immediately closing back above at least 3.95 to avoid launching a new downleg.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Anticipation, is making me wait. The Euro’s early dive Wednesday was recovered into positive territory, extending the Dollar index’s pullback to close at its 76.85 support. This creating room to absorb initial buying without allowing it to gain traction. Actually testing either of its 78.00 78.45 targets is now even likelier to hold as resistance.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Is this thing on? Testing… 1, 2, 3… testing. A rare subdued inside day Wednesday failed to exploit Tuesday’s rejection of Monday closing under 1835.00, or Tuesday’s last-minute spike up above 1835.00. But it also avoided generating another sell signal. Closing above 1835.00 is still the nearest buy signal, but a breakout’s behavior is much more significant — the session should rally through it sharply. Similarly, a valid sell signal would depend more on behavior, as almost any significant selling at this stage of this pattern could gain traction and develop into a durable downleg.

Silver Dec (SIZ) About last night... There was no follow-through to Tuesday’s close back above 40.95, but no new sell signal either. Closing under 40.25 would signal downleg extending, while closing above 41.30 would trigger a rally to probe above 44.00.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Psych. Wednesday morning’s probe under 139’20 was recovered to close above 140’06. Now, probing above Thursday’s 140’27 high should gain traction to probe new highs above 142’00. Until then, closing under 139’20 would still signal at least pullback underway targeting 137’16, which could develop into a new downleg.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) One last rest before the one last push. Wednesday’s new high close at 90.21 all but ensured fresh highs to come at 92.00. Thursday exploited this strength to refuel sellers by inserting a pullback. Gapping down created an attraction back to Wednesday’s close that should inhibit too deep of a pullback, and attract price higher.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Finally! Finally? Closing above 4.00 did extend higher intraday as suspected to also test 4.10. At least the close was still testing 4.05 as support. Thursday’s success (or not) at absorbing 10:30’s EIA report should be the final arbiter to whether a new upleg is underway.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) The pause button. Tuesday’s open gapped down as the session consolidated recent gains. The 76.85 pullback limit was attacked to within 1 tick, so the potential remains alive for extending up to 78.00 and 78.45.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Don’t. Look. Down. Monday’s break under 1835.00 was retraced entirely at Tuesday’s open. It did not extend down or confirm the sell signal. Further, recovering 1835.00 into and out of Tuesday’s close suggests a rally to new highs at 1933.00-1935.00 is underway.

Silver Dec (SIZ) No excuses now. Tuesday’s open gapped back above last week’s 4.39 low that Monday’s close had broken under. Tuesday’s close ended back above 40.95 to invalidate its sell signal. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm another attempt underway at probing above 4.44.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Noise in the (wide) range? The first trending attempt from ranging narrowly around 114’12 was Tuesday’s dip down to 140’06. It held as support, Creating the potential for now surging up to fresh highs above 142.00. Closing under 139’20 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) The go-ahead. After Monday’s gains stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s 89.10 close, Tuesday’s open gapped up and extended higher to probe 90.00. Again. But as suggested after Friday’s gap down held another test of uptrending support, recovering this time would all but assure testing 92.00 before a downleg could begin.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) No cigar. Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” resolved by gapping up Tuesday. Despite probing above 3.95-4.00 intraday, 4.00 held as resistance. I still expect a valid trigger of the buy signal to finish the day well above 4.05 and possibly above 4.10 — that was not (yet?) it Tuesday.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Big window. Sunday night’s high nearly fulfilled its 78.00 objective as the Euro was testing its 1.3580 target. Its test — potentially up to 78.45 — remains likely so long as 76.85 were to hold as support. I would expect the Euro to simultaneously test its 1.3580 target.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Too much. Monday’s big drop from 1861.00 spent the morning testing its 1835.00 sell signal. Its noon hour break extended down to 1804.00. A second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg underway, targeting 1781.00 and eventually new relative lows at 1636.50. Closing positive Tuesday, especially if after testing 1781.00 intraday, would essentially put into play new highs at 1833.00-1835.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Too late. Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was followed by some pretty effective pessimism in Monday’s gap down. Its early attack on last week’s 40.45 low broke lower into the close. New relative lows under 39.00 are in-play, unless Tuesday’s close were to recover 40.95 — which is still somewhat likely, and which would again put into play a probe above 44.00.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Nailed. Rather than push price around, Monday’s ongoing headlines  kept constrained price action into a narrow range around Friday’s 114’12 objective. The next trending attempt should be false, probably from probing fresh highs above 142’00 and closing back under 141’12.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Once more, with gusto. Monday’s session firmed out of Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” but stopped short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s 89.09 close. This hesitation is more pessimism, and keeps alive potential for continuing above 90.00 to attack 92.00, so long as 86.90 holds as support on a closing basis.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Veni,vidi, wishi, washi. Monday’s gap down spent the entire session in negative territory without trending down. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” but it offers no new information — closing above 3.95-4.00 is still needed to trigger a rally.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…