Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Restless downleg syndrome. Tuesday and Wednesday’s testing of the 74.15 sell signal delayed extending down under it. Thursday delayed it further by gapping up to the 74.55 buy signal. It was still being tested at the close, despite probing higher intraday. The base that launched the gap up wasn’t substantial, so the buy signal is dubious. A second consecutive higher close would confirm, but it is meanwhile suspicious.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Noise in a range. Tuesday and Wednesday’s relatively narrow range extended through Thursday. Trending was up into the range, so the burden of proof remains on sellers to reverse it. But the pattern’s first trending attempt is likely to be false, retraced back into the pattern, and reversed through it for a more substantial move in the opposite direction.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Sympathetic delay. Potential for extending the bounce was inhibited Thursday by Gold’s extended narrow range. So long as 41.25 continues holding as support, fresh highs remain likely up to 42.75 or 43.15.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Whipsaw. Wednesday’s dip back down stopped 1 tick short of closing under 137’10. A lower close would have signaled momentum reversing down, and under 136’25 would have confirmed.  Thursday morning’s slide did probe well under 136’25, but it reacted up to 138’23. Still no close above 139’00,  so still no buy signal has triggered, which would target a retest of the 141’06 high.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Slow-going. The rally’s delay continued Thursday, further suggesting that a fresh high would not have enough momentum to extend higher. A slightly higher high was probed intraday up to 89.90, only to close back under the ~89.20 prior highs. No pattern is currently active.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Looking good. Thursday’s opening gap up immediately exploited Wednesday’s close above the 3.95-4.00 buy signals. Excessive sentiment ahead of EIA reports tends to be contrary, which was proved by a reaction down to the pattern’s 3.97 pullback limit. The pattern played out appropriately, bouncing sharply from there to close above 4.05. Closing above 4.10 would confirm the rally is underway.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Ineffectual optimism. A softer open Wednesday never extended down back under Monday’s 73.78 close to resume the decline. The session closed while retesting the 74.15 sell signal as resistance. Closing above the signal would invalidate it, or at least undermine it. The signal otherwise remains intact and targeting 73.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Treading water. Briefly higher highs overnight were retraced back to Tuesday’s narrow 1818.00-1836.00 intraday trading range into Wednesday’s open. Tuesday’s narrow range had been the product of a brief early morning surge. Intraday price action has not been consistent with a recovery. But unless the open were to gap down under 1800.00, one more intraday rally attempt is likely before the decline resumes.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Opening a skylight. Wednesdays 42.09 high retraced 61.8% of the drop from the prior week’s high.It is natural resistance, and should produce some dip toward 41.50. But the bounce should still extend up to 42.75 or 43.15. Any higher would suggest a bigger rally underway.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) The weight may be over. Wednesday’s opening peak at 139’00 resistance quickly reversed down under 1238’00. The afternoon extended down back to 137’10. Its break through Monday’s close had robbed Friday’s buyers of their traction. Another break lower would be likely to confirm under 136’25 that a new downleg is underway.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Weighting for sellers. Higher highs overnight above 89.00 were retested intraday Wednesday. The pattern still has potential to continue probing higher highs, but probably only as distribution before launching a downleg that retests recent lows.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Worth the weight. Tuesday’s rejection of Monday’s new low close was exploited Wednesday. The 3.95 buy signal was recovered early, and extended sharply higher to close above 4.00 and testing 4.07. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction to Thursday morning’s EIA report may not be avoided. But the news will be greeted from a position of strength, and a rally should follow any close above 3.95-4.00.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Refueling sellers. Two consecutive lower closes under a sell signal require a third. Rather than extend down immediately to fulfill this obligation, Tuesday gapped up to test the 74.15 sell signal. So long as it is not recovered, the decline should resume, targeting at least 73.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Well, when you put it that way... Monday’s lows avoided the 1775.00 sell signal, which was only probed after the close. This vulnerable situation was leveraged inadvertently by Fed Governor Evans arguing on CNBC that ZIRP did not cause commodity inflation, favoring a third round of QE. Gold rallied $40 during those sentences. The rally extended after the close to attack Sunday night’s 1841.50 high. If Wednesday’s open does not gap down to form an Island, then the bounce is probably extending further up to 1851.50-1853.50.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Strong, but relatively weaker. Tuesday’s gap up was retraced briefly back under prior highs. Although the dip recovered, it stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close. This suggests that buyers are impatient, which does not tend to produce durable rallies. A close under 40.60 would reverse momentum down.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Tough to take that first step. Monday’s close under 137’10 indicated that the window for bouncing to 139’06 had ended. But a close under 136’25 to signal a new downleg underway had yet to form. Tuesday’s bounce back above 138’00 jeopardizes Monday’s signal.  And closing above 139’00 would now target a retest of the 141’06 high.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Stretching the rubber band tigher. Monday’s gap up softened ahead of Tuesday’s open, but the morning rallied to fresh highs at 89.21. This tests the last relative high with potential for any higher high to extend higher to 92.25. The pattern is not reliable, and back under 86.75 would now signal a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Just when I thought I was out... Tuesday’s recovery back into the range failed to confirm Monday’s break to fresh lows. It also keeps alive potential for the basing to launch a new rally leg, still triggered above 4.00.  Coverage will be maintained.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Finally! A confirmed sell. Monday’s negative close was the first confirmation of a prior day’s sell signal in the past three weeks. The close was only nominally lower, and recovered from probing well under Friday’s lows. The 73.00 target is in-play so long as 73.85 is not recovered Tuesday.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Dry wells of enthusiasm. Friday’s post-close surge extended higher Sunday night to test the 1838.50 resistance. Its reversal down did not gain traction, and a narrowing ranged developed around Friday’s 1795.50 pit close. Post-close action attacked 1775.00, whose break would extend the drop, and probably also resume last week’s drop.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Sitting this one out. Friday’s post-close gains never surged, and they didn’t extend higher Sunday night. Closing under 40.15 would trigger another downleg, but closing above 41.15 would put into play 45.70.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) One step closer to reality. No second day of attacking 139’06 was necessary after Friday’s bounce to 139’00. The first day already wasn’t necessary. But now it is unlikely, since Monday’s open gapped down and extended back to 136’10. Closing under 137’06 signaled momentum is reversing down. Closing Tuesday under 136’10 would confirm.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Delaying the eventual. Monday’s gap up above 86.25 follows two days of holding deep intraday dips under 84.80, instead of closing under 84.80 to trigger a downleg. Post-open action ranged narrowly, which is appropriate for the upside not being well-defined. Closing back under 84.80 would still be bearish, especially if a close above 84.25 can be avoided.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Last ditch non-effort. The failure to recover 4.00 was not necessarily bearish, but fresh lows followed anyway Monday. A second consecutive lower close would invalidate the current extended range as being a bottom.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Pivot reversal finally triggers a downleg? The 74.55 buy signal was only attacked up to 74.50 Thursday morning, so it wasn’t triggered — its strength was suspicious, anyway. The suspicion proved out on Friday’s huge pivot reversal: a gap down to 74.15 was recovered to probe Thursday’s high up to 74.55 resistance, then a plunge into the afternoon closed under the morning’s lows at 73.77-73.90. Fresh lows targeting 73.00 are in-play unless Monday were to close back above 74.15.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Lighter than air. Thursday’s corrective bounce extended above its 1775.00 target to 1832.50, on the way to either 1838.50 or to 1851.50-1854.00. Any higher would target nearly 1871.00, but I don’t expect that in this pattern before resuming the decline. Last week’s plunge won’t be absorbed without more work to the downside.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Lighter than lighter than air. Friday afternoon failed to join Gold in probing above the morning’s highs. But its post-close surge outperformed. That outperformance might persist into Monday to test 42.30. If a bigger downleg doesn’t begin there, then Silver may yet touch 45.70 before Gold peaks.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Still resting. Friday’s bounce to 139’00 took advantage of the potential to back-and-fill up to 139’06 for 1-2 days. Not closing under 138’00 allows a retest of Friday’s high that would likely finish the corrective bounce. Alternatively, just closing under 137’06 would signal momentum was reversing down. Two consecutive closes above 139’00 would make a retest of the 141’06 high’s increasingly likely.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Trapping buyers. Despite its volatility, Friday’s session was almost an inside day (except for the morning’s momentary fresh low). Thursday’s 83.01 low was retested and quickly reacted back up to 85.64. The morning’s rally was not rejected, and avoided closing under the 84.80 sell signal. But Thursday highs failed to recover above Wednesday afternoon’s highs. A lot of buying energy was expended without gaining traction, so recoveries should continue to fail unless 86.25 were recovered.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Closely watched pot?. Still no close above 4.00 (basis Sep and Oct) that would seal a bottom and launch an upleg.

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