Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Buyers still in control. Tuesday’s test of the 74.75 pullback limit ended with a gap up to fresh highs Wednesday. Although another dip had room down to 75.15, the rally extended intraday to almost 76.15. Now dips down to only 75.55 would still maintain the rally’s momentum, next targeting 76.40.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Two wrong-ways don’t make a right-turn. Monday’s break under 1524.00 had signaled a new downleg underway. It wasn’t decisively recovered by Tuesday’s inside day. Not even after Wednesday’s wild intraday swings, whose gap down to 1514.50 was reversed up sharply to nearly 1535.70, and then rejected down to 1519.00. The close was still testing 1524.00, instead of exploiting Tuesday’s recovery attempt, so the sell signal remains intact and next triggered under 1521.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) What volatility giveth… Tuesday’s single intraday test of all three sell signals – 125’10, 124’28 and 124’18 – expended a lot of selling pressure that made the pattern vulnerable to a bounce. All three were recovered through Wednesday’s close. Now each is again a sell signal. And each should again trigger, so long as 125’20 isn’t recovered through a close.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Compensating for the delay. Wednesday’ opening strength was reversed back through the 99.35 sell signal, down to 94.03. New lows validates expectations for the pattern to resolve down. Next targeted is 92.05 and then 88.75 so long as bounces hold 95.50 resistance.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Wrapped up with a bow. The pullback still has room and time to test 4.50 ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. Recovering to close positive, or simply closing above 4.70, would signal a new upleg underway, targeting 6.00.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Support test complete. Monday’s weakness extended into Tuesday’s session, which probed the 74.75 pullback limit. It was still being tested through the afternoon, but not probed by very much – especially not when compared to the S&P rally. Almost any probe above Tuesday’s 75.00 high would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Gold Aug (GCQ) A well-timed hype. Tuesday’s inside day gapped up, trend up, and closed while probing above Monday’s 1524.00 sell signal. Not bad considering the release of a highly-touted report calling for $5000. The session’s “ineffectual optimism” did not gain traction. Almost any weakness under 1521.00 would suggest the drop had resumed, next targeting 1505.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) This is going to leave a mark. Repeated probes above 125’20 finally proved they were distribution. Tuesday’s open gapped down under 125’10 and extended sharply lower to 123’26. Bounces have room up to 124’18 without the drop losing any momentum. The next lower target is 123’04, then 121’28.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) A quick rebuttal to the sell signal. Tuesday’s rally retraced all of the drop under 99.35, finishing the day while still testing 99.35. Unless 100.45 were recovered, the pattern remains likely to resolve down. Closing under 98.00 would resume the decline targeting fresh lows.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) One more day to EIA. The pullback extended slightly lower Tuesday, probing under 4.63 to come within a nickel of the optimal 4.50 objective. Recovering 4.67-4.70 would suggest the pullback had already ended.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Bump in the road. Monday’s lows almost touched the 74.75 pullback limit that could be tested before a decline gains traction. The close nearly recovered from the afternoon’s new session low, to back above the morning’s low. The session nearly qualified as “ineffectual pessimism.” Any initial strength Tuesday would be credible for resuming the rally.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Drip, drip becoming dip, dip. Monday’s session finally experienced the consequence of two failures – the fresh highs whose pullbacks failed to hold 1544.00 support, and Friday’s close under the 1533.00 pullback limit. Closing under 1524.00 would signal momentum reversing down, and its intraday break was very productive. Now 1505.00 is targeted, so long as 1524.00 is not recovered through Tuesday’s close.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Rallying without the rally. Yet another futile attempt to recovery 125’20 failed to extend higher Monday. At least its reaction down held 125’10 as support. But the burden of proof is on buyers, so these brief bounces are considered distribution. Closing under 125’10, 124’28 and 124’18 would increasingly point down into a new downleg.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Flooding the market. Friday’s close under the 99.35 sell signal extended down into Monday’s 96.13 low. The prior lows of  99.35‘s prior test were all broken, too. Closing under 96.50 would confirm new lows in-play next targeting 92.35, and 90.00, so long as bounces were to hold 98.50 resistance.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) A little bit deeper now (repeat). The 4.63-4.65 pullback target’s lower-end was probed at Monday’s low, and held. This pullback remains likely to include a deeper dip – potentially down to 4.50 – before a new rally leg begins. That said, recovering 4.80 would get a benefit of the doubt for already extending higher.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Extending the corrective bounce. Thursday’s recovery extended sharply higher Friday. This does not change that Tuesday’s low formed an Island that will need to be retested eventually. But the bounce would meanwhile target 76.40, so long as 74.75 were to hold as support.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Bigger break confirms the corrective bounce is ending. Thursday’s rally out of its 1533.00 pullback limit signaled the rally had resumed. But its new 1544.00 pullback limit was still being tested at the close. The test failed as Friday plunged down to 1526.70. Post-close action was retesting 1533.00, but only 1544.00‘s recovery can resume the rally. Closing under 1524.00 would next target 1505.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Trying too hard. Despite rejecting Thursday’s gap up, Friday’s open gapped up again to probe 125’20-126’00. Without probing prior highs, the bounce could not gain traction, and 127’00 is not in-play. Closing under 125’10 would trigger a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Sellers getting a benefit of the doubt. [Returning coverage to Jul] Two days spent testing the 101.50 bounce target resolved down with Friday’s drop. A bounce off of 98.60 intraday lows was still testing the 99.35 sell signal through the  close. Recovering back above 100.50 would signal the failure of yet another sell-off attempt, putting into play fresh highs above 102.50. Otherwise, any fresh low would likely to extend down.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Still unfinished business below. Friday’s bounce seems not to have learned Thursday’s lesson of excessive optimism. The 4.63-4.65 pullback limit hasn’t yet been fully tested, let alone potential down to 4.50. Further weakness remains likely.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Form and function. Yesterday I described the optimal bottoming setup at this stage of the pattern: Rejecting an opening dip to close above a prior high. Thursday’s price action followed the form perfectly – except instead of probing Tuesday’s low to 73.50, Wednesday’s low was probed to 74.05. That might suffice, since Wednesday’s session developed entirely above Tuesday’s range. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal a corrective rally underway so long as 74.20 holds as support.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Corrective dip done, corrective rally resumed. Recent weakness off of 1355.00 ultimately tested its maximum 1533.00 pullback limit at Wednesday’s low. There was no bullish reason to further delay resuming the rally. Thursday’s surge up to 1550.80 did resume the rally. Its reaction down was still in the process of testing its new pullback limit of 1544.00. There continues to be no bullish reason to delay extending higher to the 1558.00-1560.00 target.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) The Icarus pattern. Wednesday’s close above 125’20 could have extended higher Thursday. It did gap up at the 126’06 prior high, and then probe fresh highs up to 126’12. But a steep reversal down fell to 124’28. That’s right – yet another big sell-off that failed to close under 124’28 (which held four consecutive sessions to trigger Wednesday’s surge). Having probed fresh highs this time, closing back under 125’10 does signal momentum reversing down. But now a close under 124’18 is needed to confirm that a new downleg is underway.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Waiting for another shoe to drop. [Rolling coverage forward to Aug, which trades at a 50-cent premium to Jul] Wednesday’s bounce up to the 102.00 area held as resistance. Thursday’s higher high was still in the process of testing Wednesday’s 102.41 high. Despite extending the bounce, buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort. Closing under 101.65 would warn that momentum is reversing down. Back under 99.85 would trigger a downleg underway.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Getting way ahead of itself. Closing above 4.85 would have signaled a new rally leg underway targeting 6.00. This week’s prior testing of 4.85 suggested it would hold until a pullback could test 4.63-4.65. That didn’t stop another attempt Thursday – ahead of EIA which rarely turns out well. In fact, despite extending up to new highs at 4.98, the pattern resolved down sharply to 4.65. The shock of a big intraday reversal must be absorbed before a rally can resume, preferably with a more thorough intraday test of 4.63-4.65 support, perhaps down to 4.50.

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