Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Warning shot across the bow? Wednesday’s open created a gap back down to Tuesday’s 73.53 close. Gapping up above Tuesday’s high made the gap less attractive. So the session ranged narrowly around Monday morning’s 73.94 high. This is not a durable bottom, but extending above 74.00 would trigger a corrective bounce. Otherwise, the next opportunity to form a durable bottom would be by recovering from testing 73.50 to close above 73.70.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Last chance to step on the gas. Gapping down Wednesday tested the 1533.00 pullback limit. It must hold as support on a closing basis to maintain the 1558.00-1560.00 corrective rally’s target. It did hold, so there should be no further delay in resuming the rally if the rally is going to resume.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Hit and run. Four consecutive sessions of selling pressure had failed to gain traction, making Wednesday likely to explode up. The open gapped up above 125’10, and extended higher to retest prior highs up to 126’00. A pullback into the close held 125’20 as support, for what that’s worth. It’s not worth much. The pattern is still not optimal for trading without a setup, like the one that was fulfilled immediately Wednesday.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Detour. Done. The third break under the 99.35 sell signal, and its third lower low, had at least avoided closing back above 99.35. At least, not decisively. Regardless, the consequence to further delaying an obvious downleg was a detour up to 101.50. A particularly contentious OPEC meeting made that happen. Closing back under the bounce target now resets the 99.35 sell signal. And breaking it again should not tolerate any bounce.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Optimism, where pessimism would be bullish. Another test of 4.85 resistance Wednesday – prior to a pullback testing 4.63.-4.65 – was equally unlikely to extend higher. But now the optimism is bordering on being excessive. If not exploited by a sharp rally Thursday morning – maintained through the close, regardless of whether it were in anticipation of EIA or in reaction  – then a bigger pullback would be likely.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Making up for lost time. Tuesday’s gap down compensated for Monday’s bounce. Monday’s bounce was unusual for not mimicking Friday’s decline. That could have led to a bottom, but not without first probing fresh lows. Done. Now closing back above Monday morning’s 73.94 high would signal momentum reversing up. The trend otherwise remains down.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Getting ready for one more surge. Tuesday’s dip never threatened to recover 1550.00, so the rally’s momentum remains in jeopardy. Now stiff resistance at 1546.00 must be recovered, too. Regardless of the delay, sellers don’t start gaining traction from above 1533.00. Until then, the rally’s 1558.00-1560.00 target area remains outstanding.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Thou doth not protest enough. Monday’s probe under 124’28 was rescued by the flight-to-safety from a falling market. But Friday’s 125’09 close was not recovered. Tuesday’s fresh lows down to 124’10 were recovered to close back at 124’28. That leaves outstanding two consecutive gaps above, with four consecutive sessions of selling pressure not yet closing under a relevant low. Any initial strength would be considered a recovery attempt, capable of attacking prior highs above 125’06. Meanwhile, the pattern is vulnerable to extending down sharply.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Third time wasn’t a charm. Tuesday’s open under the 99.35 sell signal did extend to new lows at 97.74. But a bounce back above the two prior lows, and a spike into the close, ended the day trying to recover 99.35. The recovery from under 99.35 was similar to the two prior attempts, in which buyers also failed to gain traction. Further delaying a downleg may need to refuel sellers with another retest of 101.50.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) The waiting game. Unless 4.85 is broken, a dip to 4.63-4.65 remains likely before the rally can resume.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Breaking with the trend? Monday’s narrow sideways ranging did not mimic Friday’s steep slide to new lows. That is the only indication of Friday’s break being false. A big indication, but the only indication. Otherwise, the drop’s momentum remains intact, next targeting 72.85, and any bounce should hold 74.15. Closing above 74.35 would signal momentum reversing up, and recovering 74.75 would indicate that a big corrective dip had ended, instead of a new downleg extending.

Gold Aug (GCQ) The Icarus rally. Another big rally was cut down intraday. Monday’s 1555.00 high got even closer to the 1558.00-1560.00 corrective rally target. But the $12-gain was retraced almost entirely back down to 1545.00. It’s still positive territory, but closing above 1550.0 would have maintained the rally’s momentum. Recovering it without delay Tuesday would still be bullish.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Saved by the bear. RSIs diverged positively into fresh lows down to 124’17 Monday. The close recovered 124’28 support to rob sellers of their traction. The market’s broader decline may have triggered a flight-to-safety. Regardless, sellers did not gain traction for their earlier efforts.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Baby steps. The 99.35 sell signal was probed again Monday, and finally broke lower through the close. But unlike the two prior sessions, 99.35 was probed nominally, and it was still being tested at the close. Not touching Thursday or Friday’s 98.46 or 98.12 lows reflects optimism. This is inappropriate for a bottom from a contrarian perspective, so any initial weakness to fresh lows would be credible for extending down sharply.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) False alarm. The pullback from the 4.80-4.85 target stopped a nickel short of using its 4.63-4.65 pullback limit before rallying back to 4.85. Closing above 4.85 would have triggered the next upleg underway targeting the 6.00 area. Meanwhile , a pullback still has room down to 4.63-4.65.

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A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) All out of old college tries. Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was yet another opportunity for a rally to begin. But it required a close above 74.75. Instead, the drop resumed Friday and extended down sharply to 73.73. Since Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s price action, the drop is likely to extend down sharply into the new week.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Just a road bump. After recovering from an intraday test under the 1528.50-1531.00 pullback limit, Thursday’s intraday drop was confirmed to be only a correction. A shallower dip Friday was recovered to test 1548.00. The 1558.00-1560.00 corrective bounce target remains intact so long as 1535.00 were to hold any test as support.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Wide-ranging, but still stuck. A steep surge up to 125’29 followed the Employment Situation report. But it was all retraced to back under 124’28. Closing above 125’10 would have indicated the sell-off had not gained traction. Closing under 124’28 would now confirm a top is forming, and closing under 124’20 would signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Paradigm shift? Friday’s gap down confirmed that Thursday’s intraday recovery had not gained traction. Friday’s open gapped down instead of sliding, but then repeated Thursday’s pattern of recovering back into positive territory. The open gapped down within Thursday’s range, so it doesn’t require a retest. And 99.35 held a second consecutive test as support, so sellers gained no traction. All while not joining the Dollar in its steep intraday decline. Unless Crude were to break sharply lower Monday, there would be increased potential for a bigger bounce.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) The pause that refreshes. Having met its highest calculable targets at 4.80-4.85 Thursday, a pullback has room down to 4.63-4.65, which Friday’s 4.70 low nearly attacked.

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A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Hunkering down ahead of Employment. Wednesday’s close above 125’20 was followed by Tuesday’s close under 125’10, another target failing to extend higher the following day. The entire retracement from Tuesday’s 126’06 high reached 124’27. It is potentially bullish that the low filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Nevertheless, the rally did lose traction. But a pullback has room down to 124’20 before triggering a decline underway. Meanwhile, back above 125’12 would trigger a probe of new highs.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Teasing at the fringes. Thursday was the third consecutive session spent consolidating under 74.75. It also probed fresh lows. And its low also held above the prior low. That last element has been the only potentially bullish factor, preventing the decline from gaining new traction. It also formed “ineffectual pessimism” – gapping down, ranging entirely in negatively territory, and probing fresh lows, all without closing under prior lows. But a rally must trigger Friday to put new highs into play, and to avoid extending down sharply.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Correcting the correction. Wednesday’s reaction down from fresh highs above 1551.50 was extended down Thursday to 1520.40. Despite the massive selling, the intraday probe under 1528.50-1531.00 was recovered through the close. If the corrective rally targeting 1558.00-1560.00 remains in-play, then it should recover without delay Friday.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) On-again is off, again. Wednesday’s drop back to last Friday’s 100.47 close eventually extended down Thursday to probe under last Friday’s lows down to 98.46. The entire dip was retraced to close positive on the day. Impressive, except that the morning’s high was not recovered, so buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Breaking under 99.35 would target 88.75 so long as 101.50 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Big rally for a big target. Wednesday’s pullback held its 4.58 limit to maintain the rally’s next target at 4.80. A spike up through it on EIA settled back to close at 4.80. Closing almost any higher Friday would signal that new sponsorship was arriving to extend the rally sharply higher without any new refueling, potentially targeting 6.00. A pullback otherwise has room down to 4.63.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).