Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) In lieu of testing support. Tuesday’s drop never touched support at 74.55-74.75. Wednesday’s gap up wasn’t going to get very far. A temporary intraday dip under prior lows also stopped short of support. But it recovered enough to close positive. That is the basis for a “pivot reversal” setup. Closing above the morning’s 75.31 high would have been optimal, but recovering it early Thursday would still be credible for resuming the rally. Otherwise, there remains potential to test of 74.55-74.75.

Gold Aug (GCQ) New highs noise. The close above 1544.00 did make a test of 1558.1560.00 likely, although there was no reliable path higher. Nonetheless, Wednesday’s high touched 1559.30. Closing back under 1549.50 would now signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Buying pressure not gaining traction. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Bernanke’s press conference had no meaningful effect on price action. Anticipation was another story, aiding a gap up back to the 125’28 area. But the balance of the session only ranged back down to Tuesday’s 125’13 close. Closing under 125’10 would now signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) More signs of a bottom. The bottoming pattern has already suggested that selling has been absorbed. Wednesday’s rally up to 95.70 offered a glimpse of new buying pressure arriving. Closing above 95.50 would signal momentum actually reversing up, which should now trigger by Friday’s open to avoid printing one more fresh low.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Still avoiding fresh lows. Closing above 4.37 Tuesday was premature for a bottom without first probing fresh lows under 4.32. Probing higher to 4.44 overnight and early Wednesday wasn’t going to get very far. In fact, it was retraced fully to 4.32. Recovering from a fresh low could still form a credible bottom. EIA is reported Thursday.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Light at the bottom of the well. Tuesday’s opening gap down extended intraday to 74.92, and the decline from last week’s rally to the 76.40 target still appears to be a corrective dip. During Tuesday morning’s Market Tour we looked at the likelihood for extending the pullback down to 74.75 or 74.55. Their test would be optimal both for ending the pullback, and for launching a new rally leg.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Noise. Profitable noise. Fluctuation continued probing 1544.00 above, this time up to 1549.00 intraday. Closing above it put into play the 1558.00-1560.00 target, which must be confirmed by also closing above it for a second consecutive day. Regardless, there is not currently a compelling pattern in this market.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Weak sellers overcoming weaker buyers. Although Monday’s reversal into negative territory had held its test of 125’20 support, Tuesday’s lower low down to 125’07 did not. In fact, a bounce up to 125’30 was rejected to close several ticks under 125’20. Closing under 125’10 would confirm another attempt underway at a downleg.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Teasing at a bottom. Tuesday morning’s bounce up to 95.10 stopped short of recovering 95.50, which would have otherwise signaled momentum reversing up. The close was still testing 93.50 as support. Closing under it would have undermined the bottoming potential. Not recovering it decisively doesn’t reinforce the bottoming potential, either.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Resisting its laurels. An intraday probe of fresh lows under 4.32 that recovers to close above 4.38 would be optimal for ending the pullback and reversing momentum up. Tuesday’s close was trying to recover 4.38, but it did not form a bottom or trigger a reversal. No other bullish pattern has yet formed.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still absorbing the recent shock. Friday’s big gap down held Wednesday’s low after Thursday’s high had fulfilled the rally’s 76.40 target. The gap down, and holding the prior low, suggested sellers had expended too much energy to extend down. Monday’s gap up suggested as much, despite not extending any higher intraday. Still monitoring for a reliable setup, which has yet to form.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Wild intraday swings, like sound and fury. Initial weakness Monday was recovered well into positive territory, up to 1248.00. A reversal back into negative territory failed to recover 1244.00 through the close. But not for lack of trying – it was touched as resistance just before the close. Closing under 1533.00 would trigger a new downleg underway, and above 1544.00 would be capable of extending the bounce first.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Flirting with support. Monday’s gap up reacted to Friday’s ineffectual pessimism – gapping down and ranging only in negative territory, but not extending down. But Monday’s freswh high up to 126’21 reversed down soon after filling the gap back to Thursday’s 126’13 close. Mid-morning through the afternoon was spent fluctuating momentarily into negative territory. Closing under 125’20 would have signaled momentum reversing down, confirmed under 125’10.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Second bottoming signal in two days. Fresh lows down to 91.50 basis Aug (91.14 basis Jul) were recovered back above the 92.40 (92.05) target that had held Friday’s lows. And this time the recovery did close above 93.50 (93.15) to signal this downleg had ended. I have been very bearish on this market for a long time, and last week’s action ahead of 92.40 (92.05) had suggested its test could end the decline. Closing back above 95.85 (95.50) to signal momentum actually reversing up may be only a formality. Meanwhile, a retest of 91.50 (91.14) is possible.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Potential turning point. Friday’s drop to 4.32 did not produce a bounce through Monday. But it did hold two more tests as support. A fresh low Tuesday that recovers back above Monday’s 4.38 high would be credible for triggering a rally targeting at least 4.55.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still reacting off the rally’s target. The reaction extended down sharply from Thursday’s test of the rally’s 76.40 target. Friday’s 75.35 low tested Wednesday’s low. Gapping down suggests the rally will resume, but there is not currently a new signal.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Better late than never doesn’t apply. Friday finally extended higher to 1543.50, after three consecutive days spent ranging above 1524.00 without extending higher. It’s a little late to be credible for being a new rally leg. A dip still has room down to 1521.00 before triggering the next downleg. But back under 1533.00  would suggest momentum is already shifting down. Closing above 1544.00 first would make target fresh highs at 1558.00-1560.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) No moss growing here. Closing under 125’20 would have confirmed Thursday’s new high close at 126’13 had not gained traction. But Friday’s gap down to 125’20 was probed only briefly. Closing positive would have confirmed the breakout attempt, but Friday’s close didn’t even recover 125’28. There is no active signal, but closing above 125’28 or under 125’10 would be credible for extending in that direction intraday.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Rock bottom, or is it shale? The 92.05 target was attacked overnight to within a dime. A $2 bounce was retraced intraday to probe fresh lows, and also the target, while RSIs diverged positively. Closing above 93.15 Friday would have robbed sellers of any remaining traction, but its resistance was still being tested at the close. This fulfills the fresh low I described that could launch a bigger corrective bounce. Closing above 95.05 would signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) The first rule: stop digging. The EIA reaction extended down Friday to test its next target at 4.32. This being a market that tends to mimic Friday’s action on Monday, we’ll need to see at least the morning to identify a new potential long-entry parameter.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Target met. The bounce’s 76.40 target was tested after Thursday’s gap up, and reacted down to close essentially flat on the day. Extending the rally up sharply immediately Friday may be the only way to avoid starting a deeper downleg.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Delay is not strength. Three days of probing above the 1524.00 sell signal that triggered Monday, has yet to produce a rally. That continues to suggest the bounce has only delayed the sell signal’s outcome, and not invalidated it. Under 1521.00 should resume the decline next targeting 1505.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Back to the decline’s square-one. Thursday’s gapped up to probe fresh highs. A reaction down was recovered enough to close at new highs. The morning’s high and last week’s high were still being tested. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout, next targeting 127’00. Otherwise, closing back under 125’30 would invalidate the breakout, and under 125′20 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Too much impatient selling. Despite Wednesday’s steep drop to 94.03, Thursday’s shallow bounce held 95.50 as resistance. This consolidation’s measurements reflect excessive pessimism, so the next lower low targeting 93.15 and 92.05 may yet trigger a bigger bounce.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Bottom here, or much lower. Not yet having fulfilled the pullback potential down to 4.50, a favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA report needed to close above 4.70 to signal momentum reversing up. The report instead extended the decline down to 4.42. Closing above 4.50 would now signal the drop’s momentum had ended, and above 4.55 would signal a new rally leg underway.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…