Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) A breakout is a breakout, until it’s not. 1319.00 was recovered Tuesday to signal a corrective rally underway targeting 1357.00-1360.00, so long as pullbacks now hold any test of 1512.50 as support. The correction could extend to new highs before failing. Or it could fail immediately Wednesday, especially on a gap down that would form an Island of Tuesday’s price action. It has been difficult to justify rising Gold price while other metals were falling and the Dollar was rallying. At least metals have reversed up, but metals are unlikely to sustain a rally simultaneously with the Dollar.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Monitoring for a fresh high‘s weakness. Wednesday’s session ranged almost exclusively under Monday’s lows. The ranging also held tests of “lower prior highs” as support. Monday’s opening peak should at least be retested, and the pattern is now ready to produce fresh highs testing 76.60. Its test, followed by a close under 76.30 would be bearish.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) In the absence of a downleg. Tuesday’s opening dip didn’t extend down. In fact, a spike up on the noon hour’s auction recovered into positive territory. The recovery didn’t extend higher, while testing 125’06 resistance through the close. Now a break back under 124’08 could try again to trigger a downleg. Otherwise, any early strength would be credible for extending higher.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Not much excuse to delay the decline. Gapping up at Tuesday’s up filled the gap back to Friday’s ~100.00 close, which held as resistance through the day. Any further strength Wednesday could also test the 101.00 area. But any close under 97.90 would signal a new downleg underway, confirmed by closing under  97.50.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Shallow dips should be brief, too. An early dip Tuesday helped to correct Monday’s extension of Friday’s rally. Any weakness should now hold 4.30 as support to maintain the rally next targeting 4.50.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Making up for the delay. Although Friday’s gap up ultimately maintained little of its post-open gain, the rally had resumed. And it was likely to extend into Monday, which tends to mimic Friday’s behavior. In fact, the open gapped up above all prior highs.

Gold Jun (GCM) “De-coupling” doesn’t explain it. Firming with Gold for the second consecutive session Monday is an odd relationship between the two. But all other metals are weaker, suggesting that Gold’s odd relationship is with its complex. Regardless, closing above 1519.00 would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher to 1557.00-156.00. Back under 1499.00 would signal the decline had resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Big resistance holds another big effort. Monday’s gap up retraced two-three days spent reacting down from last week’s breakout attempt. It also broke back above the rally’s latest 125’06 target that never extended higher. It held as resistance through the close, but now a close under 125’18 would signal a new upleg underway. Closing under 124’20 would once again signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Getting ahead of itself. The decline’s long-awaited resumption may have arrived with Monday’s gap down. Breaking under 98.60 extended down more than $2 intraday. Closing under 97.50 would have confirmed the downleg underway, but it was still within a nickel of being tested at the close. Having gapped down sharply, not extending any lower intraday is pretty optimistic. And optimism does not make a bottom

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Bottom’s up. Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s action in this market. So Friday’s strong buy signal and confirmation above 4.15 and 4.20 extended higher Monday to 4.38. The rally targeting 4.50 and potentially 4.80 remains intact so long as 4.30 holds as support.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) In time? The week-long consolidation was at least one day late in resuming the rally when Friday’s open gapped up and extended sharply higher. The afternoon retraced most of the post-open gain. But a close above 75.70 would signal the rally had resumed. As  a side note, the Dollar and Gold both rose Friday, although not in tandem, a relationship that tends not to last for two consecutive sessions.

Gold Jun (GCM) Second wind. The vulnerability to probe fresh highs Friday morning was quickly fulfilled by a gap up that probed 1503.00. Then a deep reversal attacked Thursday’s lows down to 1486.40. But rather then extend down, a $19 rally attacked 1516.00. Closing above 1518.00 would signal the corrective rally is already underway without first probing fresh lows. Otherwise, closing under 1499.00 would signal the decline had resumed. As  a side note, the Dollar and Gold both rose Friday, although not in tandem, a relationship that tends not to last for two consecutive sessions.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Too late. Friday’s opening strength probed back above Wednesday’s 124’20 lows. That was one day too late to gain traction. In fact, Friday only ranged sideways around 124’20, further establishing its resistance. There is room for noise up to 125’06, where a higher close would signal another rally attempt underway. Otherwise, closing under 123’28-124’00 would signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Eery. [Rolling coverage to Jul, which trades at a 70-cent premium to Jun] Friday’s opening $1-1/2 drop extended Thursday’s weak inside day, probing under Wednesday’s lows to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. By mid-morning. Then, amazingly, the entire opening loss was recovered into the noon hour, and the close ended above the open. It was as if the morning’s sell-off was motivated by an unsubstantiated fear that peace would break out over the weekend. Greeting the new week without any higher threat level or without new hostilities could resume the decline aggressively. Otherwise, extending Friday’s recovery at even the shallowest slope would be very unnerving.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Bullish. Thursday’s dip under 4.15 was recovered Friday, along with 4.20 to signal a rally underway targeting 4.50 and potentially 4.80, so long as 4.18 were to hold any test as support.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) So far, absorbing the selling. Closing under 124’20 would have signaled momentum reversing down. But it was touched Wednesday as support, making the new signal a close under 124’14. A gap down extended lower intraday to 123’23, but still recovered back up to 124’20. Now a close under 123’23 is needed to signal that momentum is reversing down. A bounce has room up to 125’06 before signaling another breakout attempt underway.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Better be worth the wait. Sellers haven’t gained traction for their selling efforts since Friday’s high. Price action since then has ranged sideways, to flat-to-lower through Thursday. That should be sufficient – that should have been sufficient by Wednesday’s close – to resume the rally. Regardless, some sort of trending should be underway by Friday’s close, and it would be credible for extending in whichever direction

Gold Jun (GCM) Inside day, if even a day. Wednesday’s excessive optimism didn’t extend Thursday. The open’s gap down did not deteriorate any further, either. Instead, the session’s inside day recovered easily to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close. While this bounce should still fail, it is vulnerable to probing fresh highs Friday morning.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Inside day dips back to support. Wednesday’s optimistic bounce didn’t extend higher Thursday. The session was an inside day that drifted back down toward Wednesday’s 97.90 intraday low. Gapping down Friday under 96.90 would be likely to trend down into and out of the weekend.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Half a buy signal is the same as none. Weakness ahead of Thursday’s EIA report extended down to a new low under 4.15 at 4.09. Despite bounce back up to 4.15, the balance of the session fell back to 4.09. Not producing a fresh low does allow a close above the 4.15 interim high to signal momentum reversing up, confirmed above 4.20. There is otherwise no buy signal.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Only bouncing, and barely that. Tuesday’s drop to fresh intraday lows at 95.02 stopped optimistically short of touching the two-week old 94.63 prior low.So, Wednesday’s gap up and extension to 100.99 is still considered to be only a corrective bounce. Back under 99.75 and 98.50 would signal and confirm a new downleg underway targeting 93.75 and 88.00.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) There’s always time to trap shorts. Tuesday’s reaction down from Monday’s rally did not extend down to fresh lows. A probe under 4.15 that recovers through the close would trap short, completing a bigger bottom, whose recovery would target 4.50 and 4.80. Thursday’s EIA report could be the catalyst for the setup. Pessimism ahead of the report could help.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Break’s over, back to work. Sellers didn’t gain any traction during Tuesday’s flat-to-lower ranging. So, lower lows Wednesday weren’t likely to gain traction either. In fact, fresh lows probing negative territory and also Monday’s lows were recovered by an afternoon surge back into positive territory. A rally Thursday morning would make clear that the consolidation off of Friday’s highs has ended.

Gold Jun (GCM) Volatility pop, becomes volatility pooped. Wednesday’s gap up extended early to 1500.00 resistance, and hovered narrowly there through the afternoon. The attraction back down to the 1-1/2 week old 1462.50 overnight low may be inhibiting a recovery. Holding the low’s retest, while Silver at least avoids a new low close, would form a more credible bottom for launching a corrective rally targeting 1557.00-1560.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Try, try again. Wednesday’s optimistic open gapped up to test 125.27, but the balance of the day trended back down to 124’20. Holding at support avoided signaling that momentum had reversed down. No breakout was confirmed, either. A higher close Thursday that tries to resume the rally would likely match the Tuesday-Wednesday pattern of failing to produce a second consecutive higher close.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).