Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) Volatile, in a wide range. Tuesday’s big drop probed prior lows  intraday, but really just ranged around the prior lows and held their tests through the close without closing lower. The drop’s actual 1-1/2 week old 1462.50 overnight low has yet to be retested intraday, so sellers haven’t gained any new traction. This compares to Silver’s identical prior low which was already tested, suggesting that Gold is lagging, and that retesting its prior low could form a better bottom.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Sitting that one out. Tuesday’s relative flat range spent a lot of time in positive territory, under prior highs. So, buyers didn’t really expend a lot of energy.  Ultimately the session closed while in the process of testing Monday’s close.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Decision time. Tuesday tested the 125’06 objective for the first time in this leg, closing above it. It was also the first breakout above the 1-1/2 week old range. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout’s 126’30 target. It would also confirm the next higher objective at 128’08-128’12. Closing under 124’20 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 124’12.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Preparing for underwater drilling. Fresh lows Tuesday stopped optimistically short of touching two-week old lows, overnight lows that have yet to be retested intraday. That is now the second instance of inappropriately-timed optimism. The prior instance had momentum behind it, and this one had proximity. Optimism is not the stuff of a bottom, so this consolidation remains likely to break lower into a new downleg next targeting 93.75 and potentially 88.00.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) False alarm? Or a warning shot at bears. Monday’s close above 4.25-4.30, whose RSIs diverged negatively, did reverse down sharply to attack last week’s lows. The recovery attempt still reflects sellers losing traction, and buyers stepping up their own efforts. But one more intraday dip under 4.15 lows could be bullish – if its dip were recovered to close positive above 4.18, trapping shorts that can fuel a recovery targeting 4.50 and 4.80.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another pause. Although Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s action, the Dollar’s fresh high printed only overnight. The balance of the session trended down gently without sellers gaining traction.

Gold Jun (GCM) Finally, a rest. The trendless day anticipated Friday did form Monday. Actually, Friday was also trendless, but still choppy within Thursday’s wide range. Monday’s action wasn’t even choppy. Trending is free to resume, or to be attempted. Even the most bullish scenario could probe fresh lows intraday.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Not backing off. Gaining a half-point after Monday’s firm open wasn’t enough to retest Friday’s 125’04 high. But intraday highs did stop pessimistically short of touching Friday’s high. And Monday’s close was above prior high closes. Tuesday’s pattern should top and reverse down if the market intends to top and reverse down soon.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Sneaking over the edge. Weakness didn’t extend down, but it didn’t recover. The decline is free to resume at any time. Any probe of prior lows is likely to be done by a new downleg, and not as part of a bottoming pattern.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) A benefit of the doubt, while it lasts. Friday’s recovery attempt extended higher into Monday’s open, recovering 4.30. This puts into play a test of 4.50 if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Tuesday. If not confirmed, then a fresh low under 4.15 is likely, and its recovery to close back above prior lows would form a much more durable bottom.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Big plans above. A corrective dip had room and time to develop Friday. But the open was only slightly weaker before recovering to fresh highs at 76.14. Thursday’s opening gap did not require a retest. So, closing above it – and above Thursday’s high – is is the work of new sponsorship. Additionally,  Monday’s tend to mimic Friday’s action in currencies, making the rally likely to extend, next targeting 77.00. Not exploiting these very bullish elements and closing under 75.65 would instead be very bearish.

Gold Jun (GCM) Absorbing a lot of selling pressure. The corrective rally wasn’t likely to resume Friday, or to extend very far. Regardless, sellers weren’t likely to gain traction. In fact, the rally never showed, as a steep drop retested Thursday’s 1482.00 intraday low. That should be only noise, allowing it to hold. If the Dollar’s rally fizzles Monday, then Gold could launch a corrective rally targeting 1557.00-1560.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Hardly worth the wait. The trading range finally broke Friday, attacking the 125’06 target to within 2 ticks. Overbought RSIs there suggest it will be retested, presumably to actually touch 125’06. At that point, closing under 124’12 could signal the breakout was false, and reverse momentum down. Without touching 125’06, a close under 124’26 would be needed to signal momentum reversing down. Closing above 125’06 would be bullish.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Waiting for news. Friday’s downside volatility was relatively limited – less than $2 – and ultimately not productive as the session ended positive. That would suffice as the expected consolidation, which could persist into Monday. Regardless, new lows remain likely, probably in reaction to news.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Warning shot across the bow. Multiple consecutive sessions of are basing. An afternoon surge stopped short of touching 4.25, and might not prevent a brief dip Monday to fresh lows. But either closing above 4.30, or recovering from a fresh low under 4.15 to close positive Monday above 4.25, would trigger a significant rally targeting 4.50, and potentially 4.80.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Still stuck in its range. Wednesday night’s fresh high up to 124’22 came within ticks of last week’s high. But it disappeared by the open, which reacted to the morning’s econ reports by dropping to 123’16. Last week’s high was never touched, let alone probed. But there remains potential to test 125’06 so long as 123’02 isn’t broken as support.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Flat-to-higher consolidation. Thursday’s open quickly extended Wednesday’s rally. Then it quickly reversed down. But Monday’s high held as support, so sellers did not gain traction for their efforts. The rally might not resume without delay, but an intraday pullback Friday should recover.

Gold Jun (GCM) Another big save. Despite extending Wednesday’s considerable drop almost as considerably, Thursday’s close recovered well into positive territory. The $30 range from 1477.00 to 1507.00 reinforces Wednesday’s test of the 1497.00-1500.00 pullback target. Closing above 1515.00 and 1519.00 would still signal and confirm a bigger corrective rally underway targeting 1557.00-1560.00. Otherwise, Friday could be a slow, narrow day.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Sell-off averted, wasting buying pressure. Thursday morning’s drop down to 95.25 was substantial, and it probed prior intraday lows. But it stopped short of touching overnight lows before bouncing up to 100.50. Sellers lost a lot of traction, but buyers didn’t gain any, so a narrow range Friday is likely.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Opening the door to an upleg. Narrow ranging Thursday avoided probing new lows. Now that an extended narrow range has formed, a fresh low would be easier to recover, and to reverse up back to 4.25 and 4.50.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) Pullback target met, held… resolved? Despite initially having extended higher overnight, the 1497.00-1500.00 pullback target was tested at Wednesday’s lows. Another upleg to the corrective bounce now only need recover 1515.00 to be triggered, and closing above 1519.00 would confirm, targeting 1557.00-1560.00.

Silver Jul (SIN) Ending a corrective bounce a little too abruptly. Overnight highs up to 39.47 preceded a steep intraday dive to 35.01. The gap back down to Friday’s 34.45 close was filled, and still being tested at the close. The steep, deep intraday drop to support wasn’t enough to attract buyers, so the gap back down to Friday’s 33.27 may be tested, too.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Rally isn’t exactly resting on its laurels. Overnight weakness down to 74.53 stopped far short of even attacking the 73.80 pullback limit. Tuesday’s 75.03 high was quickly recovered, and then extended to fresh highs up to 75.62. The resistance of “higher prior lows” above are almost non-existent. It’s premature, and not very refueled, but extending this rally would next target 77.35-77.40. Closing back under 74.95 would re-attempt the corrective dip targeting 73.80.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Expending buying pressure within the range. Tuesday’s recovery filled the gap back up to Monday’s 124’13 close, without closing any higher. So, no higher target is in-play. Testing 125’06 without first having refueled buyers would still be extra vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Bounce ends without much warning. The 103.50-104.50 bounce limit proved sufficient to launch the next downleg. Gapping down to 102.50 extended lower to 97.50. The gap back to Friday’s close was barely filled, to late for a bounce that could have robbed sellers of their traction. Bounces should now hold any test of 100.50 to maintain momentum for fresh lows under 94.50.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Back to the drawing board. Tuesday’s close above 4.25 could have extended higher Wednesday to trigger a corrective bounce. But Tuesday’s bounce as retraced entirely.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).