Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Down, and out, but not over. Monday’s gains stopped short of touching the minimum 103.50 bounce target. Overnight weakness persisted through Tuesday’s open, almost touching 100.00. But an intraday recovery nearly touched 104.00. Now a test of Thursday’s 105.77 opening gap down is likely before another downleg retests last week’s lows.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) A feint heartbeat. Fresh lows down to 4.15 recovered to close back above 4.25 support. Now a close above 4.30 would trigger an upleg targeting 4.50, which could evolve into a resumption of the rally targeting 4.80.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Correction mode. Monday’s close only barely triggered a Pivot Reversal, by only closing negative instead of back under the morning’s low. Tuesday’s narrow ranging did not compensate for delaying the correction, which has potential down to 73.80.

Gold Jun (GCM) Still little ballast to dump. Tuesday’s gap up peaked upon testing 1519.00. Its recovery on a closing basis would put into play a correction targeting 1567.00-1570.00. The session essentially ranged narrowly just under the trigger, and just under an outstanding gap rather than filling it. This pessimism suggests that buying is not yet so impatient to limit further upside. But a brief dip down to 1497.50-1500.00 should help to attract more sponsorship to extend the corrective bounce.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Quite an attractive target. Yet another session Tuesday has ranged around 124’00. A gap down to it initially held, but then gave way slightly into the afternoon. The dip was too shallow to qualify as a correction, or as refueling buyers – extending down to 123’02 would do that. Otherwise, extending higher already to 125’06 would very likely put in a significant top and reversal down.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Literally capping off a quick run. Despite gapping down, the rally resumed Monday morning and fulfilled the next higher target by filling the gap up to 75.36. Then the new trend high was rejected to close negative. This forms a “Pivot Reversal” which signals at least a retracement underway, presumably targeting 73.80.

Gold Jun (GCM) Premature optimism prevents big optimism. Monday’s open gapped up and extended higher intraday. But it didn’t gap up above 1518.00, so it didn’t extend higher to 1557.00-1560.00 – only to 1514.00. This setup remains valid if triggered. But now almost any close under 1505.00 would target a retest of 1474.00, where a more durable bottom could still form.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Scared to rock the boat. While 124’00 had served as the two prior sessions’ mid-point, it was Monday’s support. A small gap down there was quickly recovered back up to 124’18, where the balance of the session ranged very narrowly. Not yet having refueled buyers with a bigger dip, a quick test of 125’06 would be likely to reverse down sharply. An interim dip has potential down to 123’02.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Refueling bounce underway. Monday’s gap up back above prior lows was consolidated through mid-morning before firming further. Eventually, a probe above Friday’s intraday high came within a dime of the 103.50 corrective bounce target. There remains potential up to 104.50 and 105.75 before another downleg were to begin.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Simply curious. Still monitoring for a long-entry setup. Meanwhile, Monday’s session dipped to fresh lows.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Just getting started. A brief pullback at Friday’s open was consolidated through the morning before extending sharply higher again. The 74.95 target was met, and exceeded up to 75.17. The next higher target in-play is 75.30, so long as pullbacks hold 74.70-74.75 as support. Any lower would trigger a deeper correction targeting 73.80.

Gold Jun (GCM) And the harder they fall, the smaller they bounce. Friday’s open held 1480.00 support for a bounce to attack the 1500.00 target. And then fell back to 1480.00. A corrective bounce’s most likely path would gap up above the 1518.00 area and extend higher to 1557.00-1560.00. Otherwise, the next lower is targeting 1461.00 to potentially end this downleg.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Second verse, same as the first. Like Thursday, Friday’s range centered around 124’00. And like Thursday, Friday’s opening high contained the afternoon rally’s peak. In fact, Friday’s close was back under Thursday’s high. Friday’s range was much wider, expending much more energy without gaining any traction for the extra effort. A close under 124’02 would target 123’02. Extending higher first would target 125’06, but there is no buy signal active.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) How do you say “you’re fired” in Farsi? Thursday night’s 94.63 low completed a 4-day $20 plunge. Friday’s bounce up to 102.38 still closed negative around 98.00. Another corrective bounce would target 103.50 or 104.50 before the next downleg begins, targeting 90.40 or 87.70. Any long position should be aware of the background rumors of Iran’s Ahmadinejad being replaced.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Yawn. No movement Friday created any new setups

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Not aggressive, so not confident. Not having rallied more aggressively into the 124’00 target, the 125’06 target was unsure. Thursday’s open nonetheless extended up to 124’11. And after ranging sideways in positive territory through the close, post-close action extended up to 124’19 as stocks plunged to new lows.

If stocks extend higher overnight, then the bond’s post-close highs may disappear before Friday’s open. And the 124’00 target hasn’t been exceeded, so much as ranged around. Closing under 124’02 would target 123’02. Otherwise, the 125’06 target may be in-play.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Four days of bottoming gets rewarded well. Thursday’s open spiked up sharply to fresh highs, and extended sharply higher throughout the day. So long as pullbacks hold 73.80, the next higher objective is 74.85.

Gold Jun (GCM) A lot heavier than it looks. Still no bottoming as a $53 drop unfolds intraday. Closing above 1480.00 would signal momentum reversing up, targeting 1500.00. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1454.00.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Dry well. Tuesday’s 112.40 sell signal, confirmed Wednesday under 111.65 extended down Thursday to 98.25. That’s March’s low, and also natural support capable of producing a bounce up to 102.15 without the drop losing traction, or up to 104.50 without a rally gaining traction. The next lower targets are 94.40 and 92.00.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Its own worst enemy, again. Wednesday’s continuation pattern from 4.67 extended down sharply Thursday to 4.21, closing at 4.25. This was the rally’s original buy signal, and the pattern is now awaiting another signal.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Stopping just short of being a really big short. Tuesday’s sell signal was confirmed by a second consecutive close under 111.65. The drop extended down to test 108.85-109.15, which has served several times as both support and resistance during the topping process. Closing any lower would retrace more than 61.8% of the Double Top back to April’s highs, and signal a much larger downleg underway. A bounce meanwhile has room up to 110.65.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Maybe a bigger pause can refresh. Tuesday’s extra day of consolidating was followed by a gap down Wednesday. After filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close, the session closed under the morning’s low. This is normally a continuation pattern that produces at least one more lower session immediately, next targeting 4.46. Closing Thursday back above 4.69 might suggest otherwise.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still trying to bottom. The one problem with the two-day pivotal reversal was that its test of Friday’s pivotal low opened the door to a new low. But closing back above 73.23-73.30 would still be bullish. In fact, Wednesday’s new low did recover back above 73.23-73.30, but not permanently. This doesn’t affect the opinion of a bottom forming. Extending higher without delay would get every benefit of the doubt for momentum having reversed up.

Gold Jun (GCM) One potential bottom gives way to another. Without any indication of a bottom at Wednesday’s open, the drop extended. It extended sharply, fulfilling its 1508.00 target. Closing Thursday under 1505.60 would signal the leg extending to 1489.00 and 1480.00. Otherwise, any strength above 1520.00 would target 1530.00, and potentially 1577.00-1560.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Lacking aggression, higher highs are still possible. Wednesday’s gains weren’t aggressive. They were immediate at the open’s rally to 123’25. But that immediately stopped and ranged sideways. Perhaps this leg will only reach the 124’00 target, and not 125’06. Regardless, until 122’02 gives way through the close the bounce’s momentum remains intact.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).