Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) That first step is the hardest. Three of this week’s four sessions probed lower lows, including the last session. Mondays in this market tend to duplicate Fridays. And failing to close above prior lows Friday suggests the attraction to 79.15 prior lows above is now broken. Next targeting 77.25 and 76.05 unless 79.40 is recovered.

Gold Feb (GCH) Patient sellers, non-existent buyers. Friday’s gap down to new trend lows then ranged exclusively in negative territory. Although the open didn’t extend, it is not “ineffectual pessimism,” since no lower low was rejected and Thursday’s low wasn’t recovered (still being tested at the close). Still targeting 1333.00 and 1325.00, so long as 1349.00 is not recovered.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Not quite the bargain. Friday’s gap up was retraced to fill the gap back to Thursday’s close. A recovery through the morning finally probed the open’s high into the close. That’s too late to be predictive. Especially for an inside day. The strength was so late as to be considered weakness. Any early selling pressure Monday would be credible for extending down sharply to start the week.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Riding on fumes. Thursday afternoon’s range contained all of Friday’s inside day. The drop’s 89.00 target was retested, and held that second test. It has been thoroughly tested. Closing under 89.00 would trigger the next downleg targeting 84.00. Recovering 90.80 would target a retest of 92.00, first.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Reluctantly bullish. Reluctantly continuing to give the rally a benefit of the doubt. Fresh highs Friday up to 4.77 were retraced into negative territory, but recovered to a new high close – under the morning’s high. This rally leg is targeting 5.01 and 5.17 so long as pullbacks hold 4.63.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Finally. Right? Finally? The long-awaited break is trying again. Any break has been long-awaited. Thursday’s low attacked its two-week old prior low, which had attacked its prior low (red solid line). Neither of the prior two lows were actually touched, a degree of optimism that has prevented a bottom from forming.

But the pattern forms a potential Head & Shoulders (highlighted red). And if this break gains traction, then its 118’00 target is in-play. There would be room down to 117’16 before assuming the downleg was going to be much bigger.

Head & Shoulders, or not, the current trading range has developed above the trend extreme (circled green). This makes the pattern “complex.” Resolving down next would confirm. Also confirming would be to reject new lows for an aggressive rally back to the current trading range’s highs – often through it.

Closing first back above 120’14 would undermine this attempt to decline. It might also be bullish enough for a probe above the trading range’s highs.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Rinse, wash, fresh low, repeat. Thursday’s gap down bounced to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close. It even tested Wednesday’s high. But each held, so once again buyers expended energy without gaining traction. Recovering from another probe of the lows would be bullish. Otherwise, the risk is to trend down sharply into and out of the weekend.

Gold Feb (GCG) When it rains... Wednesday’s mid-morning drop back to Tuesday’s close had hovered there too optimistically not to be concerned with the recovery attempt. Especially since the high had peaked at 1378’00 resistance, without leaving any unfinished business above. Thursday’s tumble to new lows was one close under 1365.00 too many. The next lower objective is obligatory support at 1333.00, and then 1325.00.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Doesn’t the market listen to analysts? Wednesday’s late close under 92.00 extended down sharply, and already neutralized its 89.00 objective. Selling pressure that takes so much time to unleash, and so little time to fulfill, tends to resolve in one of two ways: It either continues falling uninterrupted, or retests its trigger. Regardless, the ultimate resolution is still likely to be down, despite rhetoric continuing to call for $100 oil. Actually, the last drop came amid the $100 calls, so now we’re hearing $150, $200. And still seeing big drops.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Going to have to do better than that. Wednesday’s close above 4.55 extended higher in reaction to EIA. An outstanding gap back to 4.65 was filled. I’ll give this a benefit of the doubt for breaking higher, but there is room back down to 4.55 before signaling momentum reversing down.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Feb (CLH) Buyers can still earn a benefit of the doubt. (Rolling coverage forward from Feb to Mar) Finally closed under 92.00, but due mostly to a late dip. A valid break would target 88.75. Closing above 92.50 would next target 94.40 above.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Noise in a range, until proved otherwise. The highest close in more than a week finally closed agbove 455.00, but only barely. And not until the open would create a gap below. Seems too little, too late for a breakout. But extending higher Thursday would be credible.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Supported now only by disbelief. Wednesday’s gap down spent the entire session in negative territory. Since no lower low’s probe was rejected, it was not “ineffectual pessimism,” so the decline’s momentum remains intact.

Gold Feb (GCG) Another false start? If it doesn’t quickly re-start. Tuesday’s close above 1365.00 was exploited only initially Wednesday. Its gap up was under the prior day’s high, do it doesn’t require being filled. And most of Wednesday’s action hovered optimistically just above the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Avoiding near-term weakness would maintain potential to fill gap back up to 1383.40. Otherwise, risk of resuming decline.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Not manipulated. Seriously. Still range-bound, awaiting close beyond 120’14-121’14 range.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Feb (GCG) The more things change… Friday’s close under 1365.00 (red line) was suspicious for being a sell signal. The morning’s 1360.00 low wasn’t clearly broken as support – it was still being tested as resistance into the close (highlighted green), despite an interim dip intraday under 1355.00.

In fact, 1365.00 was recovered overnight to test 1376.00. But Tuesday’s session dipped from there, once again testing 1365.00 as support. The gap back down to Friday’s 1359.60 close will want to be filled, until there is a close above Tuesday’s 1378.00 high.

Closing above 1376.00 would confirm the gap back up to last Thursday’s 1383.70 close (circled green) is targeted. Meanwhile, filling the gap back to 1359.60 had better recover substantially intraday to avoid closing under the 1365.00 sell signal.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Hanging on for dear life. Tuesday’s gap down recovered to fill the gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction above. Recovering 79.55 would be bullish to 80.40. Otherwise, closing under 79.00 would signal a much bigger break underway.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) King of the last minute saves. This time, a sell signal was narrowly avoided by recovering a probe under 120’14. Sellers weren’t necessarily marginalized, but they didn’t gain traction, and neither did buyers.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Sometimes, no rejection is good news. Two days of not closing under 91.00, despite testing it intraday, make its break less likely. Closing under 91.00 would still signal momentum reversing down to at least test 88.00, but I wouldn’t position early for it.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Patience is no virtue. Still ranging narrowly under 4.55, with an unnecessary retest 4.40 support.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Sitting duck. Thursday’s drop to prior lows was not very volatile Friday. The sudden calm mirrors its narrow ranging recently above the range’s 81.10 upper-end. The relentless drop to the range’s lower-end mirrors the earlier relentless rally from this same spot. But revisiting an extreme is different. This area’s two prior tests launched rallies to successively higher highs. Thursday and Friday’s hesitation to even probe fresh lows suggests too much optimism for a bottom to form again.

Gold Feb (GCG) Too much selling to continue? Closed Friday under 1365.00. This could have been a sell signal if broken prior to the interim rally up to 1393.00. Now a $20 gap down is testing it. The 1354.60 intraday low bounced back to test the morning’s 1360.00 low, which was still being tested at the close. A decisive close under 1360.00 would have confirmed the close under 1365.00. Closing under 1356.00 Monday would confirm. A bounce first to 1372.00 is a little likelier.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) False alarm. Again. Ultimately closed Friday back under 121’14. Nothing bullish about the pattern, except that sellers have ignored multiple bearish opportunities to regain traction. Fewer opportunities to close above 121’14 have been presented, but they’ve all been ignored, too. Friday once again probed 121’14 without closing above it; in fact, the close was negative. This is distributive, and it is another bearish opportunity.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Another late save. Avoided a close under 91.00. Closing under 91.00 would have signaled momentum revresing down after buyers had lost traction by closing back under 91.70 Thursday. Closing above 92.25 would trigger a new upleg, but closing under 91.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) A little isn’t enough. Friday’s low probed Thursday’s lows, and also recovered to close above 4.40. The recovery was a little better, but still short of 4.55, and so still short of buyers regaining traction – especially if the close were sharply above 4.55 to compensate for the delay.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).