Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Is it a bottom? Friday didn’t probe a new low. Thursday had done that already. But Friday did close above Thursday afternoon’s 78.10 high, which served by proxy as if Thursday had simply closed positive. In fact, the afternoon extended higher to 78.42 intraday. That’s bullish for potentially forming a bottom. The timing is interesting, too, because currencies tend to repeat Friday’s action on Monday. Extending the recovery is likely, but also a requirement in order to confirm the bottom is in.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Bottoming attempt, perhaps a little too much so. 1322.00 (basis Apr, 1320.00 basis Feb) was recovered into Friday’s open. It extended to 1327.00. The afternoon action extended back up to 1348.00 for a retest of the last bounce target. That test produced new lows. Its quick recovery – into the weekend, no less – suggests a bottom is in. It better be in. The alternative is another $60 down quickly. A simultaneous Dollar bottom is not unlikely since both trended down together recently. But it would be unusual to reverse in unison, too.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Fighting over direction. Another day, another flip from above or below 120’14 to above or below 121’14. Actually, just a close at 121’14 this time. There’s no active signal.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) And then some. Friday’s open had quickly recovered the 86.65 buy signal, allowing me to raise the target to 89.50 from 88.60. That helps to compensate for the delay and detour in bouncing Wednesday. But the bounce must extend higher without delay to avoid at least a pullback to 87.20.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Just get it over with. Unless 4.55 were somehow recovered miraculously, I’m awaiting a test of 4.13 before considering a long-entry.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) New downleg averted, for now. Did not confirm Wednesday’s break under 120’14. Rather than extending down to close negative for second consecutive day, Thursday closed back above 120’14. The pattern remains trendless.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) New upleg averted, for now. Thursday’s new low recovered back above prior lows, but did not close in positive territory. There is no bottom signal. Another new low Friday that closes above Thursday’s 78.10 high would signal a bottom, but the trend otherwise remains down.

Gold Feb (GCH) One day to recover and avoid a deeper decline. Probed its 1320.00 sleeper low intraday, and extended much lower after the close. Recovering 1325’00 Friday would invalidate the break. The trend otherwise remains down, next targeting 1260.00, and probably very quickly.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) One day’s recovery preempted by a deeper decline. Thursday’s fresh low seems to have resumed the decline targeting 84.00. Closing Friday above 86.65 would put back into play the potential for a corrective bounce targeting 88.60. Without that bounce’s refueling, 84.00‘s test would be likely to launch a sizable bounce.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) No averting a deeper decline. Thursday’s gap down tested the same 4.43 gap that had been tested and retested, each time holding as support. It was a tenuous level with bearish implications for breaking it. Thursday’s test extended down, breaking it considerably. There are some attractions above – 4.50, 4.58 – that can help to attract a recovery eventually. But the break was a very negative event, likely to test 4.13.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Resting for a measure. The pattern took an extra day to get its corrective bounce underway. Closing above 86.95 has potential to 88.60, so long as 86.75 holds as support. Breaking it would signal the corrective bounce had already ended and the decline had resumed.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) (Another) moment of truth. Although the gap back to 4.43 was filled Tuesday, it was probed more deeply on Wednesday. The second recovery was more impressive, except for still lacking a close above 4.55. It came close to being recovered Wednesday, pessimism that could be bullish from contrarian perspective ahead of Thursday’s EIA data.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Can’t bottom without running through sellers. Monday’s confirmation of Friday’s breakout created the objective to probe a new low. Friday’s fresh low was by a margin too narrow to fulfill the spirit of the objective. But the potential bottom setup remains intact, if a valid new low intraday can be recovered to close positive.

Gold Feb (GCH) Quickly correcting its quick collapse. Rallied sharply after Wednesday’s close on the FOMC reaction. Post-close highs so far have probed into the 1342.50-1345.00 bounce target. Gapping up above it Thursday would form an Island from Wednesday’s 1325.00-1333.00 intraday range. Any positive opening not extending aggressively higher would make 1325.00-1333.00‘s retest likely.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) More trending rejected. Wednesday’s open gapped down back under the 121’14 level that Tuesday’s otherwise impressive rally had recovered. Wednesday’s close was a little more impressive, extending down to close under 120’14, That went beyond simply not confirming Tuesday’s breakout close. The ongoing pattern of endless choppiness prevents calling this the leg that will break to 118’00, but it has a chance.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Feb (GCH) Big targets met, and held. The drop has fulfilled both the 1333.00 and 1325.00 targets. A bounce to 1342.50-1345.00 is likely before extending down to the next target, probes under 1322.00.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The pause that refreshes. Having triggered another breakout Friday that was confirmed Monday, Tuesday was free to refuel sellers. The intraday bounce was retraced to close essentially unchanged. At least one more lower low is required of the pattern. It would be a durable bottom if recovered to close in positive territory. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Too big to fail? Monday’s close had stretched buyers to their thinnest. Wednesday’s gap up above prior highs was soon retraced into negative territory. Rather than extend down, another intraday rally recovered to close above the morning’s high, and above 121’14. A second consecutive higher close would give buyers a benefit of the doubt. Otherwise, failing to extend higher Wednesday could find the balance of the week playing catch-up to the bearish signal.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Tired, old sellers. Monday’s pattern had confirmed that no new sponsorship was taking control of the downleg. Having become extended, it became vulnerable to a corrective bounce. Tuesday’s gap down and narrow ranging makes a recovery above 86.90 likely to target 88.60.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Playing with fire. The 4.40 gap was filled Wednesday. A close above 4.53 (4.57 basis Mar) would now signal the correction had ended. Otherwise, any close under 4.40 would signal a new downleg underway.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Bottom fishers have been deep-sixed. None of last week’s three lower lows was recovered, only retraced, reflecting denial and ill-timed optimism. Currencies often duplicate Friday’s price action on Monday. So, the drop extended more substantially into the new week.

Friday’s close was a new breakout, so Monday’s lower close was its confirmation. A recovery attempt would be doomed to failure before reaching its 77.25 and 76.05 targets.

Gold Feb (GCH) One target down. Next target further down. An otherwise uneventful day later dived after the pit close. The next lower target at 1333.00 was fulfilled. The next lower target is 1325.00 Bouncing to 1341.00 first would help to refuel for testing 1320.00, too.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Seeking the safety of higher ground. It was worth a try ahead of this week’s heavy econ calendar. But Friday’s bounce didn’t create a strong base, which tried anyway to extend higher Monday. And the follow-through tested critical resistance at 120’14 without closing above it. There is no reason to further delay resuming the decline, and plenty of news coming to trigger it. Closing Tuesday under 119’17 would not be surprising.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Stretching credulity. Monday’s gap down slid to fresh lows, and almost as quickly stopped sliding. So did Thursday’s drop, which has not been corrected in the interim. This is the same sponsorship, and it should be tiring. Recovering 88.60 would trigger a corrective bounce targeting 90.80 before resuming the drop to 84.00.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Like taking off a band-aid. Monday’s pre-open highs up to 4.88 were retraced before the open. An intraday drop attacked 4.55, setting up to fill the outstanding gap back to 4.40. The fast that it can be done, the better chance for recovering, and the better chance for a recovery to be aggressive. Closing under 4.40 would trigger another downleg.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).