Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Too little, too late. Last Friday’s gap was never filled (highlighted pink) before falling back to the already thoroughly tested 120’14 support (highlighted green). Now it is being tested as resistance after the drop had extended down.

That extension down had retested the gap back to 119’18 (circled red) that had been filled already. Its retest was unnecessary, if not unlikely, for a recovery. And breaking it puts into play a lower target at 118.00.

Thursday’s bounce was an inside day sloped upward, which typically resolves down. It’s also untimely optimism ahead of so weighty an event as Friday’s Employment Situation report. Only a close above 121’14 would invalidate the potential for new lows.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Give it a rest, already. A third consecutive strong intraday move is unlikely, and even less likely to extend. Especially when the series contains a move from one end of the range to the other. Fresh highs Friday would be very vulnerable to reversing back down, potentially to attack 80.00.

Gold Feb (GCG) Losing more glitter. Sellers still haven’t lost traction. At least Thursday’s bounce stopped pessimistically short of touching 1378.00 instead of failing to hold a probe above it. But new lows – and potentially a new downleg next targeting 1320.00‘s test – would be in-play under 1365.00. Otherwise, a corrective bounce would target 1387.50-1390.00 and 1403.00-1404.00.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Bulls starting to get the picture. Peaking Wednesday just short of its 91.00 corrective bounce target raised it to 91.70. Thursday’s drop probed fresh lows, which ultimately held on a closing basis. While that robbed traction from intraday sellers, it requires another corrective bounce to being immediately to avoid extending down sharply into and out of the weekend.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Coffee break’s over? Pre-EIA optimism was punished as usual. The first recovery attempt failed, and the gap back to last Friday’s 4.40 close was filled. A bullish resolution – resuming the rally in strong fashion – can’t afford to hover at these lower levels.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Refueling sellers with a bounce. Fresh lows at 88.10 overnight and into Wednesday morning were accompanied by improving RSIs. Sellers had already lost traction at Tuesday’s close. The setup’s 91.00 target was attacked within 53 cents at the afternoon’s high. Potential to 91.70 so long as pullbacks hold 90.00.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) They earned the day off. Tested its 4.50 pullback limit, but has yet to recover. The delay suggests the gap back to Friday’s 4.40 gap will be filled, too. Initial weakness before Thursday’s EIA report would make a recovery likely. Regardless, Thursday should close strong and extend to new highs above 4.70 by Friday morning to avoid a deeper corrective dip.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Year-end detour seems over. Tuesday’s afternoon-long “ineffectual pessimism” hovering just under 79.85 was punished immediately by Wednesday’s gap up and extension to 80.63. Potential for some backing-and-filling to test 80.03 as support, but close above 80.83 would signal the rally is already extending.

Gold Feb (GCG) They can always go lower, but not forever. Failing to reject Tuesday’s test of 1378.00 support meant sellers maintained their traction.Wednesday’s extension down to 1364.00 reacted back up to 1380.00. But 1378.00 still held its test as resistance, so sellers still were not robbed of their traction. This all but requires an eventual probe under 1364.00, whether temporarily or as a new downleg targeting a probe under 1320.00. Meanwhile, with sellers having entrenched their trend, there is potential for a corrective bounce to refuel them targeting 1390.00 or 1403.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Time’s up. Price’s down. Tuesday’s continued pessimism at not filling the gap back to Friday’s 122’03 close required a recovery to appear immediately, if at all. The morning’s test of 1210’14 support was one test too many, and its break to 119’08 stopped optimistically short of touching last week’s 119’06 low. Only an unlikely recovery back above 120’14 can prevent this leg from extending down to 118’00.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Feb (GCG) More impressive than Tuesday’s $47 plunge is that it only retrace to last Monday’s close. A massive sell-off began by gapping down under the ever-relevant 1407.00 level. Rather than recover back above 1411.00-1414.00 to absorb sellers, the drop extended down, and down.

An outstanding gap back to last Monday’s 1383.40 close was filled by mid-morning. Its initial reaction resolved in fresh lows that probed under last Monday’s 1378.40 low. Its probe held on a closing basis, but that did not rob sellers of their traction.

A close above last Monday’s 1384.80 high would trigger at least a corrective bounce. Its  target would be “higher prior lows” at 1403.00-1404.00. Closing under 1378.00 would next target 1361.00.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Too pessimistic to take sellers too seriously. Tuesday’s low kissed support at the prior bottom’s 79.11 overnight low. Its reaction up stopped pessimistically short of touching 79.85, or filling the gap back to Thursday’s 79.88 close. This is despite having recovered to session highs before noon. That’s extra ineffectual pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Too pessimistic for too long not to be concerned if buyers don’t reassert themselves immediately. Monday’s recovery had stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s close. So did Monday, and it closed under 121’14. Both the added delay and the lower close require an immediate recovery that extends to fresh highs so sellers do not gain traction.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) The volatility is due for a rest. Tuesday’s opening break under the 91.00 sell signal slid sharply until probing Thursday’s 89.00 low. A bounce was rejected by a fresh low. Thursday’s low ultimately held as support to rob sellers of their traction. But the low’s interim high was not recovered. Buyers did not gain traction, so any bounce should fail and resolve in fresh lows.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Inside day gives breathing room for a corrective dip. The room for a pullback down to 4.50 wasn’t fully utilized by Tuesday’s inside day. Wednesday could still test it. Regardless, its test would require a quick rejection to new highs above 4.69.

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A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Second time’s a charm? Friday’s gap down had extended deeper to probe the prior lows (circled green). It recovered on a closing basis to rob sellers of their traction. Extending down further Monday was unlikely, so Monday’s consolidation was appropriate in that context. A close above 79.85 (circled green) is needed to signal mmentum reversing up, and the pattern is meanwhile directionless.

Gold Feb (GCG) Down to one engine now. The month-old 1427.40 high opening gap is now within $3 of being filled. The path there is only getting more dangerous. It is a series of gaps left outstanding, narrow consolidations and shallow pulbacks that continue to reflect excessive optimism. This is no time to be getting long, and a close under 1411.00-1414.00 could end the rally. Recovering from an intraday dip into the pullback limit would launch a last upleg.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Detours are getting shorter. Monday’s gap down held 120’14 to remain within corrective limits, and then closed above 121’14 to signal the bigger corrective bounce was still underway targeting 123’06 and 124’00. The intraday high stopped pessimistically short of fully filling the gap back to Friday’s high, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Almost done loading the gun, not yet triggered. Friday’s probe of new highs had spiked back down into the close to finish under prior highs. Monday, too, a little earlier and from a higher high. The pattern is distributive up here as expected. But it still needs a trigger to signal momentum reversing down, which is at least a close under 91.00.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Could it get more bullish? Wait, can it? Friday’s recovery back to the Head & Shoulders neckline made a test of its shoulder likely. Monday’s open gapped above it and extended to close above the pattern’s head. This recovery is no longer a secret. Pullbacks should now hold the 4.50 area, and any test of it must quickly reject the pullback to prevent sellers from gaining traction. Regardless, the bigger multi-month basing pattern that was interrupted by Head & Shoulder has confirmed exactly that, that it was only interrupted.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Surprising extension of the pullback, and surprisingly sharp at that. The 79.85 pullback target extended down sharply Friday, with two elements that make it difficult to extend: 1. gapping down leaves unfinished business that might attract price higher, and 2. intraday probe of two-week old overnight and intraday lows was recovered on a closing basis. Recovering 79.85 on closing basis would be credible for resuming the rally, but it is meanwhile resistance that should be tested regardless.

Gold Feb (GCG) Long wait for 1427.40 may have gotten shorter. Friday’s gap up immediately proved Thursday afternoon’s dip had held 1407.00 support. Extending higher into the close signaled 1427.40 target remains in-play, with potential to 1436.50. Friday’s gap up also yet again suggests the rally is corrective and intended only to neutralize unfinished business above before triggering new downleg

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Corrective bounce has resumed after absorbing the mid-week detour. Friday’s immediate resumption of the bounce confirmed Thursday’s dip to 120’12 support increases the likelihood for fulfilling both 123’06 and 124’00 corrective bounce targets

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Sharp surge finally retests prior high, but not directly. Patience was not a virtue, waiting for Wednesday’s ineffectual pessimism to produce one more higher high to sell, and then waiting for Thursday’s low to be retested. Friday’s steep rally began with only a cursory test of Thursday’s low. Dips have room down to 90.85-90.95 before signaling new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Extending rally into weekend should extend out of it, too. Friday fulfilled the requirement to extend Thursday’s late surge, confirming it had not expended too much pent-up buying pressure. Intraday highs touched 4.40 neckline of three-week old Head & Shoulders, making 4.54 shoulder’s test likely. too. Just closing above 4.50 would confirm, which is likely because Natty Gas tends to duplicate Monday’s price action on Friday.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).