The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s Globex open had been preceded 20 minutes earlier by a favorable Trump tweet about China trade. Gapping up to 2799.50 extended only momentarily to 2803.50 and ranged narrowly sideways, before retracing the gap to 2794.50. That found actual buyers, and Monday’s open was greeted at 2808.00. Extending higher to 2813.50 at the bias environment high was isolated by noon, reversing the intraday trend. A lot. The balance of the session slid to within 2 ticks of the 2794.50 Globex low. Monday’s opening gap up above all prior highs was left outstanding for retest from below. Also, last Thursday’s bearish Isolation setup was invalidated unless reinstated by proxy at Tuesday’s open.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s close had made a hold-short compelling. Globex didn’t delay extending down to within 3 ticks of what is this morning’s bias-down signal at 2791.50. A bounce soon failed and the decline extended down to 2783.50 well before midnight. Recovering back up into and out of Europe’s opens touched 2791.50. Its reaction down to 2785.00 was fully retraced to retest 2791.50, where another reaction down is developing.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Sunday’s Trump tweet was only the first taste of the week’s catalysts for price action. Trump is in Vietnam meeting with South Korea’s Un, just as India-Pakistan conflicts escalate. Meanwhile, the Fed Chair’s 2-day semi-annual Congressional testimony begins today, with the embargo on his opening remarks is to be lifted at 9:45 — just as the opening 15 minutes of volatility would normally lapse. Enhanced volatility could both gap down to reinstate last Thursday’s bearish Isolation setup, and also bounce to neutralize the attraction above at yesterday’s open. Regardless of the bigger picture agenda, volatility through tomorrow morning should offer plenty of trade setups… Here’s yesterday’s video example of a live Risk:Reward analysis, which will be added to the Knowledge Base.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2795.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2791.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to Thursday’s 2782.00 noon hour high paused only briefly before extending up to Wednesday’s pivotal 2787.50 highs. And then not much longer before extending to fresh intraday highs at 2794.50 by noon. Stopping short of Wednesday night’s 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme,” the bias environment fell 2781.00 in reaction to a China trade headline. But the final hour recovered to overlap Wednesday’s 2790.75 high at the cash session close. Extending higher through the futures close reached 2795.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
A Trump China trade tweet announced that progress was sufficient to abandon Friday’s deadline for hiking tariffs. The tweet came only 20 minutes before Sunday night’s Globex open, easily triggering a gap up to 2799.50. Follow-through to 2803.50 ended the reaction as quickly as it had begun. Narrow sideways ranging eventually dipped to 2794.50 testing gap-to-gap 61.8% support. Its reaction improved steadily to attack earlier highs by Europe’s opens, then extended to fresh highs at 2805.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
We have to wonder what last night’s organic open would have done, if not for the tweet’s artificial catalyst. Its immediate effect proved underwhelming, quickly peaking within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-up target. Recovering its retracement to fresh highs is now a retest of prior resistance, and not necessarily a breakout with traction. The more recent fresh high does now have complexity that the original surge lacked, qualifying as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. Fresh highs maintained during Monday’s opening 15 minutes would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Credible for extending, but not required. Reacting down would be credible for retracing back into Friday’s range. A likely attraction below would be Wednesday’s 2790.75 high, which Friday’s close was still overlapping, and which was maintaining Thursday’s Isolation setup that is hanging by a thread.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2795.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2696.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2799.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2806.00 would be likely to exceed the 2803.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday opened back under the earlier 2784.50 Globex low. This isn’t in itself relevant lot, but it’s bearish after having probed the prior day’s high overnight. Which Wednesday’s night’s 2798.00 had done, forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. The 2778.00 open extended down 9 points to 2769.00 through 10:15, then ranged flat-to-higher back up to the open. Noon’s attack on 2782.00 launched the next downleg to eventually form a Double Bottom attacking 2764.00. The last half-hour’s bounce attacked 2776.00 at the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight held support at 2770.75 support. That was Thursday’s last identified sell signal left untriggered through the close. It remains untriggered, as price action since midnight rallied 16 points to test 2787.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not rallying yesterday afternoon suggests that the bearish Globex-flip will influence this morning, too. Its trigger was 2784.50, which is being probed now as resistance. Recovering 2784.50 through the open would start to undermine this morning’s bearish influence. But that would be only a warning, while gapping up above Wednesday’s 2788.00 highs would suggest the 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme” retest is underway, first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2788.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2784.50 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2793.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2781.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2779.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s open each were within ticks of 2780.00, separated by a relatively narrow overnight range. The range was maintained through the noon hour while price fluctuated between either end. The afternoon’s reaction to FOMC Minutes — the most volatile I’ve seen in years — probed each extreme momentarily to 2791.25 and 2773.75. Still the 2786.00-2787.00 close held within the range at its upper-end. The session left no “unfinished business” and contained no predictive value.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s final hour had ranged relatively narrowly, which persisted during Globex’s first several hours. Favorable trade talk headlines triggered a 13-point surge up to 2798.00, interrupted by a Running Correction. Narrow hovering at the high plateaued until breaking lower just after midnight, retracing the Running Correction’s lower quadrant at 2792.25. The surge’s first leg was eventually retraced by 61.8% back down to yesterday’s “lower prior highs” at 2787.00. Three hours ranging narrowly suddenly collapsed down to 2783.50 while I was warning of exactly that during the Market Tour recording. The overnight rally’s Running Correction was complex, creating a “new Globex trend extreme.”

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday had not decisively confirmed Friday’s close above 2751.00-2757.00. Wednesday didn’t reject it, either, and held Tuesday’s range. Rallying to 2798.00 would seem to settle the matter, and decisively, if developed intraday. But the overnight surge’s retracement back into yesterday’s range is threatening to isolate the 2798.00 test to the overnight, forming a bearish Isolation setup. That would reject the upside, because this instance has an added degree of difficulty from the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, often the same day, so overcoming its upside attraction would reflect even greater rejection. Look out below if the rejection triggers a Globex-flip, as well, which I describe in detail during the Market Tour recording. Having said all that, trying but failing to trigger an Isolation or Globex-flip setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.75 would be likely to trigger the 2790.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The three-day holiday weekend ended by gapping down from an otherwise relatively narrow extended range between 2773.00-2780.50. Tuesday’s 2766.00 opening dip to Friday’s last relative low reacted straight up to unchanged at Friday’s 2776.00-2777.00 close. Surging again into noon probed overnight highs up to 2784.00 at noon. Higher highs into the final hour go to 2787.50 but gained no traction, and 1-minute RSI was only on the cusp of being overbought. The balance of the session dipped back down to unchanged, a second consecutive close above 2751.00/2757.00. But not decisively positive, so neither was its confirmation that new highs had been put into play.

Overnight action’s new info…
Despite soon bouncing back up to 2782.25, fresh lows briefly attacked 2774.00 before midnight. Despite soon bouncing back up to 2780.75, more fresh lows briefly attacked 2773.00. A shallower bounce, so far, is only overlapping 2776.00-2777.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s late dip back down to 2776.00-2777.00 hasn’t been rejected overnight, which I would have expected if the late dip there was from weak-handed sponsorship. Instead, still fluctuating around it overnight, digging out lower and lower lows, suggests otherwise — that the rally which is being retraced was created by weak-handed sponsorship. But that’s not yet enough to indicate its retracement is extending down, which all but requires gapping down or at least immediately extending to exit a timing window back under Tuesday morning’s 2766.00 low. Rallying out of the open would mean the rally’s next higher objective will have been established, albeit vulnerable to backing-and-filling first more gradually, from a position of strength likely to be recovered.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.00 would be likely to trigger the 2768.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2776.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.