The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rallying Monday night had tested Friday’s 2294.00 prior high. Tuesday’s gap up tested Friday’s high as the opening 15 minutes of volatility ended. It was probed only high enough to neutralize Monday’s unfinished business above at 2295.25. The balance of the session retraced the overnight rally, filling the gap from Monday’s close down to 2285.25. The morning’s bias-up signal was invalidated, and no “unfinished business” was left outstanding above or below.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce up to 2290.00 was being retraced already into the close. The retracement immediately extended to probe 1 point under Tuesday’s low to 2284.25. That was the end of that. Rallying from there greeted Europe’s opens at 2291.25. A reaction down to 2286.50 has recovered back up to 2291.25.

If, then…
Isolating a probe under Monday and Tuesday’s lows to the overnight would have been bullish for today. Especially if that probe had tested or at least attacked 2280.75. But the only probe under yesterday’s low was a single point, and it was part of a leg underway already into the close. And now there’s too little time to isolate a probe before the open. The 2294.000 prior highs are still near enough to be recovered quickly through the open. But dipping back under ~2286.00 through the open would turn this morning into a deeper pullback — still likely only temporary, but a detour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2294.00 would be likely to trigger the 2292.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2288.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2286.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2283.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s 2286.25 bias-down signal was touched at the open, and held through the bias timing window. The setup put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal. Its only attack was made quickly into the bias timing window, and peaked quickly at 2191.50. The balance of the session fluctuated around the 2284.00 overnight low and the morning’s 2286.25 bias-down signal. A test of 2295.25 remains outstanding as “unfinished business above.”.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging around 2284.00-2286.25 persisted into Europe’s opens. After allowing some time without resolving down, firming recovered to yesterday’s last-minute 2288.25 high. And then through it aggressively, reacting first to what is this morning’s 2291.25 bias-up signal. Surging again is attacking Friday’s highs up to 2294.00.

If, then…
Yesterday’s market Wrap described why any credible rally should begin without delay. So, does already surging overnight make this morning any likelier to rally? It’s a good start. But upon testing the 2294.00 prior highs, their resistance must still be exceeded through the open. “Unfinished business above” from yesterday at 2295.25 could serve as resistance. Last Wednesday’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2299.50 is not so much an attraction as it is a landmark, so satisfying its required retest won’t necessarily satisfy buying pressure. Although this surge could have launched a 35-point upleg if triggered yesterday, the pattern still allows for a steep double-digit move if not rejected early..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2293.25 would be likely to trigger the 2291.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2288.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday ended four consecutive sessions of closing at (or once within several ticks of) 2275.00. It wouldn’t have happened without the session gapping above those four sessions, and with the open maintaining the gap. The 2287.00 open was retraced 4 points, and then recovered to attack 2294.00 before the morning bias environment began lapsing. The prior Thursday-Friday “higher prior lows” were recovered, but their upper-end still held as resistance. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, supported by 2290.00. .

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open slid as America, the world, and our galaxy all were stunned by the Atlanta Falcons early and wide lead over the defending champions New England Patriots. Almost simultaneously timed to the come-from-behind victory, the slide stopped at 2287.50. And it was recovered entirely, eventually piercing Friday’s highs up to 2294.25. Price has since slid back down to test 2290.00.

If, then…
There’s still no evidence that stretching the rubber band tighter last week down to 2275.00 will be any more fruitful in resuming the rally. One piece of evidence against it would be to gap down this morning, which would target 2275.00, and lower. But a gap down isn’t currently threatened. Rather, being back in the orbit of last week’s 2299.50 “new Globex trend extreme” makes its retest likely sooner rather than later..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2294.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2295.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2290.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2286.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s drop to 2264.50 was recovered to open Thursday at 2271.00. Fulfilling the offsetting test of the 2278.75 bias-up signal defined the morning’s high. Its reaction down targeted 2271.00, which was met by noon. Overbought RSIs at the morning’s high didn’t prevent the balance of the session from only ranging choppily between 2271.00-2277.00. The close was within 1 point of 2275.00, after the three previous sessions had closed AT it, still unable to attract strong-handed buyers.

Overnight action’s new info…
The chop continued, first drifting down to test 2271.00, and then recovering to greet Europe’s opens back at 2277.00. Haas the chop ended? The recovery has extended to probe 3 ticks above yesterday’s 2279.75 high. But this morning’s Employment Situation report is looming, as is a pre-open Fed speaker.

If, then…
The overnight rally back to yesterday morning’s 2279.75 high offers an opportunity for one bullish setup, which would maintain the gap up and extend it. Its minimum objective would be last week’s “higher prior lows” beginning at 2287.00, with potential to new highs. Of course, rallying in advance of the Employment Situation report can easily become plunging in reaction to it. Still, the other bullish setup could form, by first probing a fresh low — presumably down to 2256.50 — and opening back above prior lows. That’s not very easy, so it’s not very likely, and reacting down to the report would more likely trend down. The next lower objective would be to test 2248.50..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are available before an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AFTER NOON TODAY, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SESSION.

Through the prior close…
Rallying into  Wednesday’s open and then surging was only able to briefly probe above the morning’s 2283.50 bias-up target. And it was unable to maintain the upward momentum, as the balance of the bias timing window reversed back down to its 2278.50 bias-up signal. Through it, too, although not decisively in time to actually trigger a synthetic bias-down signal. So, extending down sharply only tested the 2270.50 bias-down signal by 2 points, and wasn’t required to also test the morning’s 2265.50 bias-down target. Afternoon choppiness triggered by the FOMC policy statement attempted to break lower, but from above the morning’s low, which makes the pattern distributive and not accumulative. Bounces to 2277.00-2278.00 produced the third consecutive 2275.00 finish.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late bounce’s reversal down to 2275.00 didn’t hesitate extending through it to attack Wednesday’s lows down to 2269.50. Another quick drop tested what had been Wednesday morning’s 2265.50 bias-down target. Later probing under it by 1 point — to within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2264.00 bias-down target — reacted up into Europe’s opens. Its reaction up to 2269.50 was retraced briefly to retest 2265.50, which is recovering again.

If, then…
Three consecutive closes at the same level may seem likely stability, following Monday’s opening plunge from 2281.00 down to 2263.50. But it is actually three consecutive failures to attract strong-handed buyers. That indecision gradually makes another downleg to lower lows likelier and likelier will be required. Already probing lower last night also suggests that another downleg is beginning. There’s still a small chance of holding the retest of Monday’s 2263.50 low, a very small chance. Bank of England releases minutes from its policy meeting, which might be more of a catalyst for volatility than usual. If that volatility is down, then the next lower objective would be to test 2248.50..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.75 would be likely to trigger the 2270.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2262.75 would be likely to also break under the 2264.00 bias-down target through 10:15, and to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2265.50 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2273.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.