The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s drop had overshot the 2275.00 support of “lower prior highs,” down to 2263.50. The close had recovered to 2275.00, but not above it, and only due to a weak-handed rally, which left “unfinished business below” requiring a retest at the 2263.50 low’s oversold RSIs. That attraction defined Tuesday’s session, since no overnight rally developed. Testing 2263.50 neutralized the attraction below, and its reaction tried again to recover 2275.00. That was again the cash session close, produced by a weak-handed rally — but this time there was no unfinished business below left outstanding..

Overnight action’s new info…
A shallow post-close surge tested 2278.00, defining the range’s upper-end past midnight. Its lower-end briefly touched 2275.00. Firming to 2281.50 ahead of Europe’s opens only established a narrower range’s upper-end, its lower-end supported by 2278.00.

If, then…
Near-term trending should be obvious before the open, before becoming most vulnerable to anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The overnight rally is so far only noise back up to Monday’s 2281.00 opening print. Rallying any higher could face the challenge of already testing last Thursday and Friday’s 2287.00-2291.00 “higher prior lows,” which could be solid resistance. Greeting the news from a shallower morning rally could be the right mix of momentum and restrained optimism that can accelerate back to last week’s highs. Opening back under 2275.00 could still reflect patient buyers, while still being vulnerable to revisiting this week’s lows — which would now be likely to break lower on the way to testing 2248.50. .

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2281.00 would be likely to trigger the 2278.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2275.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open gapped down 8 points to its 2281.00 bias-down target. The next 90 minutes plunged 18 points more down to 2263.25. Lower prior highs down to 2275.00 didn’t contain the drop and launch the next upleg, which Thursday and Friday’s shallower dips had tried, and failed. Or, did it? Rallying through the afternoon peaked upon touching its 2277.00 maximum upside target. It originated too late to be the product of strong hands, but its reaction down closed at 2275.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Having fulfilled buying pressure up to 2277.00 with weak-handed sponsorship, a reaction down became highly likely. Narrow ranging supported by 2275.00 ended with the BOJ’s expected unchanged policy statement. Quickly breaking lower attacked 2268.00, which then supported a somewhat narrow range. This range broke higher, retracing all the way back up to 2275.00. Its reaction down to 2270.25 has been recovered almost entirely.

If, then…
Monday afternoon’s bounce off its oversold lows had waited too long to extend for its sponsorship to be strong-handed. Isolating the doomed bounce’s retracement to the overnight by opening back above 2275.00 could be sufficient to resume the rally Tuesday afternoon. Trying to trend up too aggressively already Tuesday morning might extend to higher prior lows at 2287.00-2289.00 before failing. Oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2263.25 low require an eventual retest, which would be the likely attraction to not opening back above 2275.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2275.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2271.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2269.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2294.00 open was flat with Thursday’s close, and with Thursday’s open, and with Wednesday’s close. Post-open action quickly slid and extended through the morning to attack 2277.00. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways into the close. Any attraction to retesting Wednesday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2299.50 was well hidden, although sellers were influential only during the morning.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down 7 points and soon extended 1 more to touch what is already this morning’s 2281.00 bias-down target. Europe’s opens triggered a surge to attack 2286.00, but only briefly before price settled back down to attack the 2282.00 open.

If, then…
Resuming the rally already this morning had required gapping up this morning, which seems quite off the table. Resuming the rally Thursday or Friday had depended on their opening or intraday weakness stretching the rubber band tightly enough to snap back up. That tactic seems to be back on the table. Having tested the bias-down target overnight, holding a test of the bias-down signal should be tight enough. Otherwise, there is room down to 2275.00-2277.00 before the next deep enough stretch.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2277.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2281.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2283.25 would be likely to hold the bias-down target.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open and close were essentially flat with each other, and essentially flat with Wednesday’s 2294.00 close. This seemed to ignore the prior two sessions’ rally, as much as the overnight’s rally — although attraction to the overnight “new Globex trend extreme” may have inhibited trending down. Anyway, the open’s dip back down to the 2291.75 overnight low was the opportunity to reverse down, but it held. Probing under it later was less about continued selling, and more about searching for stronger buyers.

Overnight action’s new info…
No hint of trending appeared until rallying to greet Europe’s opens back at Thursday morning’s 2296.75 high. And like Thursday morning, the overnight rally attempt was reversed back down entirely to 2291.25. Bouncing back to yesterday’s 2294.00 close has yet to resolve either way.

If, then…
Yesterdays narrowly ranging session was more predictive than its size. Predictive, if not very productive. Its backing-and-filling followed a second consecutive surge to new highs. That was Tuesday and Wednesday, with Wednesday being an actual breakout closing above prior highs. So, Thursday missed the opportunity to confirm Wednesday’s breakout. It did leave outstanding a higher objective that was put into play overnight at the new Globex trend extreme. But repeating Thursday’s pause throughout Friday would undermine this leg’s 2327.00 objective, since it requires being met by an aggressive rally. After Thursday missed the opportunity to confirm a breakout, Friday not exploiting the proximity to a new high close would be doubly concerning. Any further pullback today can be deep and probably steep, but it must be brief to allow time for recovering and reversing up. Similarly, reacting down intraday from retesting Wednesday night’s Globex trend extreme would not only undermine the rally’s momentum, but possibly reverse momentum down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2298.75 would be likely to trigger the bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2292.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open gapped up 6 points above Tuesday’s high to 2286.50. Trending up through the day nearly touched 2295.25 just before the close. But that was too late to gain traction. Only the bias environment exit was above its prior timing window’s high, and the final hour’s entry didn’t confirm. Even closing the cash session above the bias environment’s 2294.25 high was too late. But the session still qualified as a breakout, putting into play the next higher objective at 2227.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s last-minute reaction down wasn’t deep, and it didn’t extend much deeper before firming from a test of 2292.00. Firming became surging, eventually piercing 2299.00. Consolidating the overnight highs until Europe’s opens has drifted back under yesterday’s highs to unchanged testing 2294.00 as support. Regardless, there was complexity while probing fresh highs, which creates a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest (not necessarily today).

If, then…
Trending back down this morning is possible. A relatively shallow dip would be likelier than a deep dip, if any dip at all. But this rally’s ongoing pattern is likely to meet its next higher objective aggressively, and also to reject it aggressively. That could have followed Tuesday’s fulfillment of what was then the next higher objective at 2278.25 and a new high close. It didn’t, so now the aggressive rejection must wait for the next higher objective of 2327.00. That might have been avoided by not confirming yesterday’s breakout today, but the character of yesterday’s pattern already suggests it won’t be rejected abruptly. Reversing down from a retest of last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” is possible, as is already opening under the overnight low to avoid retesting last night’s highs today. But holding up through the open would suggest the rally will extend into next week.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2298.75 would be likely to trigger the 2297.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2291.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.