The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s strength was steady, but also restrained. The 2266.00 bias-up signal’s attack didn’t trigger it, and its probe didn’t extend until the bias environment began lapsing. Then a rally emerged that traversed the 3-week old range to probe its high up to 2280.50 into the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Despite reacting down 6 points into the close, the rally gained traction. And despite reacting down into the close, unfinished business above was neutralized. No new higher objectives were created.

Overnight action’s new info…
A narrowing range had finally broken higher to greet Europe’s opens probing 2278.00, on the way up to new highs at 2282.25. Consolidating since then has been supported by yesterday’s 2280.25 high. Each reaction down is overlapping yesterday’s high without forming any interim complexity above. So, there is not yet any “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require being retested intraday.

If, then…
Having gained traction for yesterday afternoon’s efforts, the rally is likely to trend higher this morning. Trending higher this morning is no likelier to be maintained, or to avoid reversing down intraday. But not yet reversing down before the afternoon bias environment would make reversing down much less likely. Meanwhile, having probed higher overnight, trending higher this morning can be avoided by opening back under the ~2275.00 overnight low. The drop could extend down another 7 or 10 points without even threatening to reverse the trend down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2281.00 would be likely to trigger the 2278.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2275.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s probe under Friday afternoon’s 2260.00 lows wasn’t rejected, but it was retraced for Monday’s open to test Friday afternoon’s 2266.00 highs. the retest was rejected abruptly, and the balance of the morning slid sharply to 2251.75. That neutralized the attraction to last Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 2253.00. But one more nearby attraction outstanding at 2248.50 didn’t prevent the balance of the session from rallying back up to attack 2263.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly back down to Friday afternoon’s 2260.00 lows only recently tried breaking out. But a shallow surge testing 2264.00 is being retraced back into the range to attack 2260.00.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s recovery expended a lot of energy only to attack unchanged, never returning into positive territory. Trending up this morning all but requires gapping up above yesterday morning’s test of 2266.00. There is currently only the glimpse of that threat, recently probing a fresh overnight high before dipping back into the overnight range. Reversing the probe back under overnight lows would likely kill the recovery threat altogether, and resume yesterday morning’s decline.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2260.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2256.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening surge had held a test of resistance at the morning’s 2272.00 bias-up target. Reacting down into the noon hour to 2260.00 had held support upon filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. The balance of the session ranged up to 2266.00 resistance until it had become too late to sponsor a recovery.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s late bounce had both gravitated to 2266.00 and held its resistance, already having signaled it would hold. Sunday night’s open didn’t delay reversing down to and through Friday’s 2260.00 noon hour low. Narrowly consolidating down to 2259.00 blipped-down to touch 2258.00 at Europe’s opens. Snapping back up extended to attack 2264.00, where price has since hovered

If, then…
Expiration’s influence on Monday morning’s price action may prevent trending in either direction, unless already trending at the open. Resolving down at any time would target at least a retest of oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2253.00 low, if not also the prior week’s 2248.50 actual low since its pivotal low was already retested. Although not currently threatened, a rally’s initial objective would be to test Friday’s opening anchor above, and likely test of 2278.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2257.50 would be likely to trigger the 2261.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s opening surge touched the morning’s 2269.25 bias-up signal’s resistance, then immediately reversed down. And not meekly, resembling Wednesday’s opening plunge. But Thursday morning’s drop lasted longer than just the open, falling to 2259.50. Bouncing out of the bias environment exit didn’t last much longer than the open’s surge, and didn’t resolve much differently — another plunge probed last Wednesday’s pivotal low by 2 points down to 2253.00. But the fourth consecutive bias environment’s 2:30 exit began a bounce again, this time back up to 2260.50. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late afternoon bounce extended higher into the Globex open to attack 2266.00. Hovering there through Europe’s opens eventually resolved up to a fresh high at 2268.00. Its reaction down is now trying to hold 2265.00 as support.

If, then…
Simply touching last week’s 2255.00 pivotal low all but requires testing the 2248.50 actual low. They’re not always done by the same leg, so an interim bounce isn’t unusual. Last night’s bounce could delay the lower low if maintained through the morning bias environment — similarly, rejecting the bounce could soon retest yesterday’s low and lower. Relentless overnight trending doesn’t assure extending higher post-open, and is often reversed. Regardless, this being a Friday, let alone expiration, the open’s trending could be predictive of the entire session. So, triggering bias-up, or not, could tell us where the entire session is headed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2263.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2265.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2266.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted by the remnants of an overnight rally that had probed above the intraday highs into Friday’s range up to 2268.50. Its reaction down plunged to 2258.25. Recovering only to attack the morning’s 2266.00 bias-up signal, the balance of the session was only a frustratingly narrow 3-4 point range. Actually, the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window broke higher, but only to its 61.8% range for noise up to 2267.25.No unfinished business was left outstanding, and WedEX did not form a setup.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late rally didn’t so much extend, as it tried to resume. Fluctuation around 2266.00 persisted, briefly attacking the prior night’s highs up to 2268.25. Europe’s opens saw that range’s lower-end break down to 2261.50. Its reaction is now testing 2265.00.

If, then…
This morning’s bullish scenario is the same as yesterday’s, which begins with an overnight rally. So far, no good. That will have to change soon — and quickly by a lot — to avoid the bearish scenario of probing fresh lows for the week. As it happens, that kind of change is entirely possible, with the ECB rate decision and Mario Draghi press conference now warming up. Anxiousness ahead of the ECB may be responsible for inhibiting a recovery already. But regardless of the likelihood for a new high targeting 2278.25, reacting down remains possible, which would target 2248.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2269.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.