The First Trade
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
It was a loooong time coming. Tuesday’s open had isolated Friday’s range, creating an objective to retest the 2257.50 overnight low. But the meat of the session only hovered choppily under Friday’s 2266.25 low. Then the afternoon bias environment exit plunged from 2265.00 to fulfill the 2257.50 objective. Only 1-minute RSI diverged positively, but that proved sufficient to trigger a 2260.25 buy signal. Potential for the setup to probe fresh session highs was only able to firm into the close and test 2263.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late recovery soon extended higher, and relentlessly. Testing the plunge’s 2265.00 origin produced a 3-point surge, probing 2 points above Friday’s low. Already reacting down was accelerated by Europe’s opens back down to 2265.00. Consolidating there has resolved down 2 points to touch yesterday’s last-minute bounce high at 2263.00.
If, then…
Extending higher overnight wasn’t required, and not likely enough to merit a hold-long. But it was the likely bullish resolution to the late-afternoon buy signal, and it was fulfilled. Probing back into Friday’s range would be bullish for today, if maintained through the open. The current reaction down is threatening to isolate at least that part of the recovery to the overnight. The reward for rallying today is to also probe above Friday’s 2273.50 high, and probably fulfill the outstanding requirement for a new trend high close. Otherwise, resuming Tuesday’s drop would at least retest last Wednesday’s 2255.00 low — its break could point sharply lower..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2260.00 would be likely at least to test the 2256.00 bias-down signal.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening surge from 2267.00 quickly extended to 2273.50. And that was the end of that. The morning’s bias environment ranged narrowly between 2270.00-2272.50. A quick dip into noon was followed by a drop into the afternoon bias environment exit attacking 2266.00. That was still in positive territory, despite so much time having been spent either consolidating or declining. Being a Friday, the balance of the session firmed back up to 2273.00 through the futures close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open dipped immediately back down to 2268.00. Drifting down to test 2265.00 through Europe’s opens Monday formed a low that was only pierced until Europe’s opens Tuesday. Anxiousness ahead of British Prime Minister May’s speech drove markets lower. Its low (so far) was a blip-down to 2257.50 which is now reacting back up to test 2265.00.
If, then…
PROGRAMMING NOTE: The pre-open Market Tour is now available only by recording. Scroll to the top of this blog post for its link. Then join us in the chaRTroom by 9:15 ET for any updates and your Q&A…
The 2257.50 overnight low has been relevant support during the current ranging. As such, it was a Pivotal Low last Wednesday, i.e. a fresh low was recovered to a fresh high. Retesting 2257.50 post-open would not be bullish. Retesting it overnight is only a threat. Meanwhile, its test underscores the vulnerability to launching a more durable downleg upon finally probing a fresh high. Having said that, the 2265.00–2266.25 range between Thursday’s close and Friday’s low can mark the difference between rallying this morning, or declining.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2270.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2263.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2259.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2260.75 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal.
The First Trade… That deer in headlights look.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down 6 points Thursday to 2264.50 extended through the morning. The prior three sessions’ lows were probed down to 2248.50. Already reversing up before noon, the entire afternoon rallied to a last-minute touch of 2267.00. Late-afternoon swings all overlapped the 2264.50 open, stopping short of Wednesday’s 2271.50 close. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then entering the final hour higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
More like, overnight lack-of-action. Thursday’s huge swing went immediately into hibernation. Ranging very narrowly between 2264.25-2266.25 has only recently tried probing higher. The probe was even shallower than than the range. Barely piercing yesterday’s last-minute high by a couple of ticks proved untenable, as price soon dipped back into the narrow range.
If, then…
This morning’s bullish scenario would already be rallying through Friday’s open, and overcome the gap at Wednesday’s 2270.50 close. Recovering it could easily gravitate back up to the highs, with counter-trend sponsorship difficult to generate ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Sponsorship is difficult to generate all around, and 2271.50 is meanwhile resistance. Immediately rallying out of yesterday’s entirely negative session would already be suspect. A more bullish scenario would back-and-fill initially, with a relatively shallow temporary dip to 2257.50. The bearish scenario would extend under Thursday’s noon hour “lower prior highs” at 2254.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2271.50 bias-us up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2262.00 bias-down signal. The same 2266.00 level serves as both bias signal’s preliminary indicator because of the extremely narrow overnight rally between them.
The First Trade… Half-step forward, tip-toe back.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon’s 2255.75 low had attacked the morning’s low to within 3 ticks, while retesting the afternoon’s 2256.75 bias-down target. Its reaction extended higher through the close, attacking 2272.00 to within 1 tick — a relevant level that happens also to be last Friday’s trend high close. Oversold 1-minute RSI at the low was narrowly avoided. The intraday recovery didn’t gain traction only because the noon hour’s high wasn’t recovered early enough.
Overnight action’s new info…
No matter the potential or even the likelihood for rallying intraday Thursday, the path higher was vulnerable to an overnight drawdown. Defined by this morning’s 2264.00 bias-down signal, the relentless overnight pullback has twice tested this limit. The second test is now bouncing from 2260.75.
If, then…
Sooo close, in two regards. First, closing yesterday above 2272.00 wouldn’t have been any likelier to avoid an overnight dip, but it would have been likelier to resume yesterday afternoon’s rally this morning. Second, yesterday’s high touched last Friday’s new trend high close, and yesterday’s close was within 1 point of it. A new trend high close remains outstanding, and there’s no assurance of its timing. As the overnight pullback shows, even the proximity to prior highs doesn’t ensure extending higher. Even probing new highs won’t ensure closing higher. Holding a test of this morning’s bias-down signal (now being tested) would at least make new highs likely intraday. While triggering bias-down would likely only delay new highs, that delay is still vulnerable to probing under yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2264.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2260.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
The First Trade… Sellers at the gates, again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Probing under Monday’s 2263.50 intraday low was isolated to the overnight by recovering it before Tuesday’s open. Which would have been bullish the recovery were maintained post-open, but it wasn’t. The open’s dip retested the 2259.50 overnight low. That bearish setup didn’t prevent rallying back into positive territory at 2274.00, but it did prevent maintaining the rally. Tuesday afternoon retraced retraced it back down to the opening range’s upper-end at 2263.25. A late bounce was also retraced down to 2263.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially ranging sideways around the close up to 2265.50, a dip soon attacked the 2259.50 intraday low to within 1 tick. Ranging sideways at the lows through Europe’s opens finally bounced back to the open’s 2265.50 high. And slightly back above Tuesday’s intraday low.
If, then…
The upper-end of Tuesday’s opening range was retraced by the afternoon’s drop. That’s not much of a consequence for weak-handed sponsorship. Probing under the retracement’s 2263.25 low was still likely, as was retesting Tuesday morning’s 2259.50 low. Both were done Tuesday night, essentially, as last night’s low stopped 1 tick “optimistically short” of the prior lows. Not being a new low, opening positively this morning’s can’t isolate it back above Tuesday afternoon’s 2263.25 low. It’s still early enough to recover further, and to open back above yesterday’s late 2269.25 bounce. That could be rewarded by extending to 2272.00 and then to new highs. Otherwise, an actual fresh low at 2257.50 is likely. And Tuesday’s intraday bounce may have lengthened the timing of this pullback’s low beyond this morning. As well, its likelier target is at least 2247.50, if not also 2235.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2265.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2261.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2258.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.