The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
.Wednesday performed similarly to a session-long rally reaching 2142.50. Each timing window probed the prior timing window’s high, with the only exception being the last window, which fell to 2137.50 through the futures close. WedEX didn’t trigger as session highs only fluctuated around prior highs (i.e. 2138.00-2139.75). “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the afternoon’s 2145.50 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open’s blip-down to 2136.25 was reversed immediately to begin recovering all but 2 ticks of Wednesday afternoon’s pullback from 2142.50. A spike up to 2144.50 probed above Wednesday’s high but never extended before being retraced entirely.– and then some, back down to 2138.00 through Europe’s opens. Price has since firmed back up to test 2141.00.

If, then…
Gapping up and/or probing high enough Thursday could serve by proxy to trigger bullish WedEX, depending on its resolution and other minor elements. Maintaining a gap up above Wednesday’s 2142.50 high could trigger an active bullish WedEX. Rejecting an early probe above 2142.50 could trigger a passive bearish WedEX. Gapping down would have to be relatively substantial to be relevant. Regardless of WedEX, there’s still potential for at least an intraday probe higher to fulfill the 2145.50 objective. The ECB policy statement and Mario Draghi press conference are just minutes away…

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2143.00 would be likely to trigger the 2141.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2138.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Rallying 18 points overnight into Tuesday’s gap up didn’t prevent the open’s 10-point drop to 2129.00. But it did help to absorb it, and almost all of it was recovered back to 2138.50 by noon. The noon hour and afternoon’s no-bias environment hovered narrowly between 2135.00-2137.50 just under the pre-open and post-open highs. The final hour finally started trending — down — meeting its 2130.50 target into the futures close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially rallying overnight to 2135.50 held up through midnight. It was all retraced into Europe’s opens, on the way to probing under Tuesday’s lows down to 2126.50. But not for long. A bounce quickly recovered back into Tuesday’s range, briefly probing into positive territory above 2133.00.

If, then…
Enough time was spent Tuesday hovering pessimistically short of retesting prior highs for it to be considered pessimism. That context, and the late drop’s timing, suggest sellers were weak-handed. All of which would be irrelevant if Wednesday’s open were to maintain an immediate break under Tuesday’s low. Having threatened that overnight, recovering to gap up Wednesday would be that much more bullish — gapping up above Tuesday afternoon’s 2138.00 high would form a “session-long rally” setup. Breaking under Tuesday morning’s 2129.00 low to resume the overnight decline would essentially resume last week’s declines, too.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2128.50 would be likely to trigger the 2130.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2133.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2137.50 would be likely to trigger the 2136.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open had recently recovered from Sunday night’s slide to 2116.75, back up to unchanged at 2127.00. The open’s blip-up to 2130.00 reacted down 9 points through the open. Its partial recovery was reversed down deeper to test 2118.00, and the balance of the session chopped its way slightly higher into the close. “Unfinished business” was left outstanding both above and below, at 2132.25 and 2116.00, respectively.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last late chop from 2119.00 up to 2124.00 was corrected immediately at the Globex open down to 2120.25. The balance of the night has trended up relentlessly to 2135.50, until a 4-point dip that is now trying to recover.

If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction Monday, so rallying requires gapping up, above the morning’s 2129.00-2130.00 highs. And also above 2132.25 if it is touched post-open. Touching it overnight doesn’t yet invoke this requirement. And regardless of by how much it was pierced, rejecting its test through the open could slingshot the market back down — under Monday’s lows to retest Thursday’s 2107.75 low down to at least 2105.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2133.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2131.75 bias-up target at 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal and next targeting 2136.75. Exiting the open above 2128.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2125.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up extended to within 3 ticks of its 2144.00 renewed bias-up target. Reversing down through the noon hour to 2126.50 only barely filled the gap back down to Thursday’s close, never really turning negative. Retracing 61.8% of that drop attacked 2135.00 before retracing back down to the noon hour’s low. No traction was gained, no overbought or oversold RSIs were left outstanding, and Wednesday’s prior high contained the open’s probe above it.

Overnight action’s new info…
Quickly breaking lower Sunday night attacked 2118.00, which is this morning’s bias-down target. A bounce tested what is this morning’s 2123.25 bias-down signal as resistance before reversing to fresh lows testing 2117.00. That was all done by midnight, ranging choppily between the two since then — and now probing the range’s upper-end to at least 2125.50.

If, then…
Trending this morning should begin by gapping open beyond Friday’s range, and this morning’s open is indicated to gap down. The indication hasn’t much changed in quite awhile, so extending into a downleg might not be obvious immediately. A post-open bounce back up into Friday’s “higher prior lows” around 2128.00 would likely avoid triggering bias-down, while remaining vulnerable to drifting back down into the overnight range, and then to fresh lows through the afternoon. But that would require not touching the 2123.25 bias-down signal at all post-open, which would target positive territory, and which would not likely produce a downleg today. So, just touching the bias-down signal post-open should be very bearish very quickly, if bearish at all.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2122.00 would be likely to trigger the 2123.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping down 16 points Thursday from Wednesday’s 2133.50 cash session close, then extended down another 10 points to test 2118.00 through the first half hour. Oversold RSIs at the low were left outstanding while all but 1 point of the drop was retraced into the final hour. The test of Wednesday’s “higher prior lows” reacted down to test 2124.00. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then entering the final hour higher.

Overnight action’s new info…
Falling a little further into the Globex open attacked 2122.00. Sideways ranging up to 2128.50 barely acknowledged Europe’s opens, but eventually broke higher. Wednesday’s intraday high has been attacked to within 3 ticks at 2138.75.

If, then…
Recovering above 2131.00 had suggested trending up overnight to being rewarding Thursday’s rally for having gained traction. Gapping up to prior highs (from Wednesday) would risk inverting the setup for having fully rewarded it already. All of Thursday’s recovery could be retraced intraday to fresh lows targeting 2105.00 and 2095.00. But quickly recovering prior highs — preferably gapping up above them — would maintain the likelihood for the morning to trend up, with potential to 2150.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2139.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2136.00 bias-up target through 10:30 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2144.00 and 2145.50. Exiting the open above 2133.00 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2128.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.