The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down to 2181.25 erased all of Monday’s gap up from Friday’s 2180.00 close. Immediate follow-through to 2177.00 was recovered back up to 2182.50, setting the tone for ranging choppily around 2180.00 through the noon hour. Only then was the open’s low probed, not by much and not for long, barely testing Friday’s 2175.50 low. Fresh session lows printed at 3 minutes within the cash session close, and “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2174.25 bias-down target. So, holding short through the close was compelling, but not optimal, since sellers didn’t gain traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially bouncing back to 2180.00, another point was added into Europe’s opens. But that.only triggered a one-hour plunge to fresh lows at 2173.50. Its reaction has so far been resisted by yesterday morning’s 2177.00 low

If, then…
Tuesday morning’s unfinished business below is neutralized. Its intraday test had been likely to include 2172.00. That could be moot if the overnight dip has been isolated by recovering it already at Wednesday’s open. Gapping up above 2181.25-2182.50 could even form a “session-long rally.” Otherwise, testing 2172.00 would likely give way to 2166.00 and 2160.00. This afternoon’s FOMC Minutes should be greeted anxiously as it possibly confirms recently raised odds for hiking interest rates sooner. WedEX may trigger at the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2172.00 would be likely to trigger the 2174.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2177.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally and Monday morning’s surge did their best to portray a “Game On” message. But it was “game over” as the surge peaked at the 2189.50 bias-up target before the morning bias environment’s exit. Ranging narrowly through the balance of the bias environment persisted through the noon hour and the afternoon bias environment. The final hour suddenly slipped 3 points to end the cash session at 2187.00, just above the opening range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late dip extended down to greet the Globex open at 2186.00. That didn’t stop the decline, which extended down to 2183.00. Europe’s opens triggered a quick 2-point slide to 2181.00. Consolidating there for two hours suddenly spiked up to 2186.00. That has been retraced almost entirely.

If, then…
Yesterday’s 2184.75 opening gap overlapped prior highs, so it’s retest from below isn’t required. Yesterday’s 2187.00 close might require being retested eventually if today’s open were to create a gap. Filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2180.00 close without extending down would help the attraction above. But not assure it, as gaps outstanding below at 2172.00 and 2160.00 would be in-play. Meanwhile, in case today’s open gaps down, filling the gap back up to yesterday’s close has no assurance — and even less reason — to resume the rally. So, in every case, the burden of proof is on buyers.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2186.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2190.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2183.25 would likely at least to test the 2181.25 bias-down signal by 10:15. Exiting the open under 2179.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open didn’t gap up, making fresh session highs unlikely, since Thursday had not gained traction for its effort. Sellers didn’t exploit the weakness much beyond remaining under pressure into the afternoon. Ultimately, it was an “inside day” on a Friday, without wide-ranging extremes, and no unfinished business was created..

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night opened flat with Friday’s 2180.00 close and gradually firmed to attack Friday morning’s 2183.00 high. It had been probed by another point well before Europe’s opens, which suddenly got volatile. A blip-down to 2182.00 had been recovered one hour later to pierce last week’s high by 2 ticks up to 2185.75. Rather than extend, that has reacted back down to 2183.00.

If, then…
Thursday’s probe above prior highs to 2185.25  had indicated it was unlikely to extend Friday, because its close was back under the 2183.50 prior highs. That indication was influential but it hasn’t yet been productive — Thursday’s probe didn’t extend Friday, but it hasn’t reversed the trend back down. Not, yet. Not ever if the overnight probe back above both 2183.50 and 2185.25 isn’t rejected this morning. There’s only several ticks above of room for noise, and maybe only several minutes to set a tone for today — either resuming Friday’s break lower, or continue gravitating higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2185.50would be likely to trigger the 2184.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up to 2178.00-2179.00 was more successful than Wednesday’s gap up to 2178.00-2179.00. Both probed lower soon after the open, but Thursday recovered above the overnight highs. And then to fresh highs. And finally to new highs. Wednesday had declined through much of the day without gaining traction, so it’s interesting to note that it was followed by a rally. Thursday’s rally, meanwhile, didn’t gain traction, and created no higher attraction.

Overnight action’s new info…
New highs, again, and still no overnight enthusiasm about it. Not even rejection, which at least would anticipate volatility. Thursday’s late 5-point reaction down from 2185.50 didn’t extend. But a 3-point range expanded to 4 points at Europe’s opens, and is still trading flat with yesterday’s close. That’s just complacency, which is usually ended by exploding in one direction, or the other.

If, then…
Yesterday’s late, momentary surge was well-positioned to extend higher on a short-squeeze. Quickly absorbing the inflection point instead and reacting down suggests very little short interest is available up here to be squeezed, at this stage of the rally. Which has been an ongoing characteristic during the past several weeks, whether immediate or delayed one day. Pessimistic shorts would be bullish from a contrarian perspective. So far, their absence.is more of a “sell strength” signal than an outright sell. This being a Friday, reversing down from another fresh high or just dropping would likely extend through the noon hour. By the same token, this being a Friday, another fresh high that does NOT quickly reverse down could drift higher into the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2187.00 would be likely to trigger the 2185.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2181.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up,

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday gapped up several points to 2179.00, stopping pessimistically short of the overnight high, as did two pre-open bounces. Post-open action immediately dropped, more pessimism, but holding up above its bias-down trigger. Price trended down anyway until the afternoon bias environment’s 2168.00 exit. But even that didn’t gain traction, as probing under “unfinished business below” at 2171.00 was recovered to hold as support through the close

Overnight action’s new info…
A quick pullback at the Globex open touched 2170.00, and then rallied back up to Wednesday’s 2179.00 opening print. Europe’s opens triggered a very quick drop that attacked 2172.00, but that has been retraced already back up to the 2179.00 high.

If, then…
Almost an entire day of selling pressure Wednesday ended without sellers gaining traction, and with an attraction below having been neutralized. That’s not very productive selling. No consequences were delivered intraday, but gapping up to and or through yesterday’s high would suggest they’re coming today. Not already trending down at Thursday’s open makes another high likely, and likely to test the unfinished business above at 2185.50 — which is suddenly much closer than it was at yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, a topping pattern continues to develop, so beware of an opening print that isn’t maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2178.50 would be likely tot trigger the 2176.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2173.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.