The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s rally fulfilled the required retest of Sunday night’s 2183.00 “new Globex trend extreme.” In the process, it created new attraction above it at 2185.50. Its attack was interrupted by the bigger pattern’s influence, which has been abruptly reversing rally efforts. This one was reversed deeply enough to fulfill the afternoon’s 2173.25 bias-down target. Bouncing into the close ended within 1 tick of Friday’s 2177.75 prior high close..

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially pulling back to 2174.50 then awaited Europe’s opens, That triggered a surge which extended up to this morning’s 2181.25 bias-up signal. Its 3-point reaction down is now being recovered almost entirely.

If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close requires there to be another new trend high close..Tuesday’s close AT Friday’s close did not qualify. But it could, in retrospect, by rejecting an intraday fresh high Wednesday, especially if 2185.50.were touched There’s plenty of “unfinished business below” at 2171.00, 2160.00 and lower to attract price down. So, now that it seems the open will be greeted in rally mode, the question is whether the ongoing pattern’s influence remains capable of causing rally efforts to abruptly fail.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2079.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2181.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2183.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Sunday night and Monday’s open each probed above Friday’s breakout highs, but the majority of Monday slid back into negative territory. Only shallowly, which prevented meeting the 2171.00 objective below, which was created by rejecting the open’s strength. Meeting the objective below was made difficult by an attraction to the strong open — which had maintained its gap up above all prior highs — and to the 2183.00 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
No change seems to have occurred to the rock and hard place pressuring price between them. An extremely narrow 2-point range between 2174.50-2176.50 persisted through Europe’s opens. Only within the past hour has price dared to break higher, soaring to 2176.00, less than 2 points higher.

If, then…
Understandably, bouncing only a couple of points overnight doesn’t affect wheher yesterday morning’s 2171.00 objective remains as much in-play, Anyway, time is a more important factor. Not being met the same day makes 1-2 lower attractions likely to be met, too, which are 2166.00 and 2160.00. Timing is also relevant, and not yet extending down out of Tuesday’s open would start to suggest a retest of Sunday night’s 2183.00 high will come first — especially if Tuesday’s open has produced an aggressive bounce. But exiting the open still stuck in this narrow range would suggest nothing, and a lot of it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2181.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2180.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2176.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2171.75 would be likely to trigger the 2173.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s Employment Situation report triggered a pre-open surge from 2162.00, and opening gap up, and a post-open surge. Momentum slowed considerably before noon, and as the 2177.75 objective was met within 1 tick. It was eventually pierced by 3 ticks by the afternoon’s narrow flat-to-higher ranging into the close. A new trend high close was produced on a Friday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow flat-to-higher ranging persisted Sunday night, even narrower than Friday afternoon, eventually touching 2179.00. Europe’s opens launched a break higher that touched 2183.00. Its reaction down has touched 2180.00. .

If, then…
A new trend high close on a Friday requires there eventually to be at least one more. Friday was also a breakout of a multi-week range. So, already fulfilling the new trend high close today would also confirm Friday’s breakout. That would be bullish, and that’s why it’s today’s least likely resolution — because this particular multi-week range’s other characteristics make it likely to abruptly reject probes above it. Also, Friday’s high satisfied the next outstanding attraction above, and the only attraction above, without closing above it to put into play another attraction. Here’s another reason: Probing higher overnight is greeting the new week with extreme sentiment, which is often a sentiment extreme. Given the vulnerability to resolving down today, confirming Friday’s breakout instead would be that much more bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2182.25 would be likely to trigger the 2180.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2186.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2185.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2174.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up above Wednesday’s tractionless rally enabled the rally to probe higher without bearish consequence. As for utilizing that ability, not so much. An 8-point reaction down from 2162.00 was recovered entirely into the noon hour’s 2163.50 peak, just short of the 2164.25 overnight high. Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report inhibited trending higher. Another 8-point drop in the afternoon ended at 2158.00-2159.00. No traction was gained, but “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at 2150.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s 8-point drop from 2163.50 was recovered entirely by midnight, where it awaited Europe’s opens. That triggered a surge to fresh high at 2165.25, which had been Thursday afternoon’s bias-up signal, so resistance. Its 4-point reaction back down to the surge’s origin is now being recovered.

If, then…
Yesterday’s price action suggested the market wants to respond bullishly to this morning’s Employment Situation report, regardless of the week’s “unfinished business below.”. Trending up relentlessly overnight doesn’t change that intent, but it increases the consequences of not reacting bullishly to the news. No traction was gained yesterday, so maintaining a gap open Friday beyond either end of Thursday’s 2154.00-2164.00 range would be likely to trend in that direction. If down, then unfinished business below would be in-play at 2150.50 and 2141.50. Any rally would be likely to extend to retest Sunday night’s 2177.75 “new Globex trend extreme.”.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are available before an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference… SPECIAL NOTE: THE CHARTROOM ENTRY IS BEING REDESIGNED TO STREAMLINE IT, WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A RESTRICTED ACCESS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUGGESTIONS!

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s opening blip-up to 2152.00 reacted down aggressively, but held 2147.00-2148.00 support. Just as aggressively, 2152.00 was recovered, and that was the end of Wednesday’s weakness. Gradually eking higher eventually tested 2158.00 into the close. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was left outstanding.

BOE Monetary Policy Committee members.

Overnight action’s new info…
A brief surge to fresh highs attacked 2161.00, which was retraced as quickly back down to its 2156.00 origin. A choppy sideways 3-4 point range ranging since then has centered around.2156.00-2158.00. This might be considered as anxious paralysis ahead of today’s BOE policy statement, generally expected to ease.

If, then…
Wednesday’s late break higher came too late to gain traction. So, extending its rally must begin by gapping up Thursday. Whether today or tomorrow, a retest of Sunday night’s 2177.75 “new Globex trend extreme” would be in-play. Otherwise, greeting Thursday’s open already in decline would still target a retest of Tuesday’s oversold RSIs at 2141.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2160.75 would be likely to trigger the 2159.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2155.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.