The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Surging 5 points immediately at Tuesday’s open fulfilled the bullish scenario, although stronger-handed selling would soon emerge. The 2168.00 peak was soon reversed, falling 14 points through the morning to 2154.00 — of which 10 points was a plunge. Noon hour and afternoon recovery attempts each peaked at  2164.00. No traction was gained, and the close fluctuated around unchanged.

Overnight action’s new info…
Perhaps anxiousness ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings was inhibiting Tuesday’s recovery attempts. Its post-close reaction broke immediately 2 points above the afternoon highs to 2166.00. And Tuesday morning’s high was probed overnight by more than 1 point to test 2169.00..

If, then…
Tuesday’s close backed off from the highs, but only a little. And that was after expending plenty of selling pressure intraday, for a second consecutive session. Fresh intraday highs at 2171.25 and 2175.50 are still on my radar. Reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is usually volatile, but the morning’s action before it tends either to be inhibited or else to trend. Still, any post-open weakness should barely touch or probe back under yesterday afternoon’s 2164.00 “lower prior highs” to keep new session highs likely for today.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2171.25 would be likely to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2164.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2156.00 would be likely to trigger the 2158.00 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The week began by falling back into the same range as last Tuesday’s horrible session. The template behaved the same way this week, with Its quicksand keeping price attracted to 2156.00-2158.00 for much of the day. Also similar was a last-minute rally up to 2163.50 that retraced more of the open’s drop from 2166.00-2168.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
A pullback to 2158.50 was recovered to a fresh high at 2165.00. Reacting down through Europe’s opens has extended back to the 2158.50 low. Price is still consolidating under unchanged levels.

If, then…
There is now no bullish reason to revisit Monday’s 2156.00-2158.00 lows. Dipping more than just momentarily would likely gain sponsorship and traction to break under last week’s lows on the way to a much deeper level. Meanwhile, almost any opening strength Tuesday should be likely to probe fresh intraday highs, retesting Sunday night’s highs up to 2171.25  and 2175.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2166.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2155.50 would be likely to trigger the 2157.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Simply not gapping down Friday was already unlikely to resume Thursday’s decline. Greeting the open unchanged around 2058.00, but having pulled back from an overnight rally up to 2165.00, Friday rallied throughout up to 2169.00..

Overnight action’s new info…
Opening flat Sunday night around 2168.00 eventually surged to fresh highs at 2172.50. That was retraced as quickly, and soon reversed into negative territory. A blip-down testing 2163.75 in reaction to Europe’s opens was recovered to 2171.25. That has returned back down to 2168.00 instead of yet extending higher.

If, then…
The overnight high was not complex, so it was not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest. But it’s likely, anyway. Even without Friday’s rally gaining traction, potential remained intact up to 2171.25. Further potential up to 2175.50 became likelier for having absorbed Thursday’s detour down to 2153.50 and to compensate for a terror-related event in Munich having inhibited Friday afternoon’s rally leg. Not holding last night’s low could trigger a morning pullback instead.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2162.00 would be likely to trigger the 2163.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2171.25 would be likely to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s lower close failed to confirm Wednesday’s breakout. The alternative setup was fulfilled by trending down sharply instead. No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Thursday’s 2153.50 low, as was unfinished business above at 2171.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s 2158.00-2159.00 had ranged flat-to-lower down to 2156.00, but recovered entirely ahead of Europe’s opens. Trending since then has extended up to test yesterday afternoon’s 2164.25.sell signal as resistance.

If, then…
It is significant that not only was Wednesday’s breakout not confirmed, but that its reaction was to trend back down. Another breakout attempt today is unlikely. So, attempting another breakout attempt today would likely be rejected, too, perhaps more substantially than Thursday. Not gapping down gives the morning an opportunity to retest Wednesday’s 2169.75 highs, and to fulfill the 2171.25 unfinished business above, first. But similar to confirming Wednesday’s breakout, the alternative to exploiting the opportunity would be to resume Thursday’s decline.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2166.50 would be likely to trigger the 2165.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2161.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session was significant, fulfilling several items of “unfinished business above” at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00. The overnight rally had neutralized the first two. A post-open dip to 2158.50 preceded recovering to neutralize the last objective. It was tested up to 2169.75, which was touched several times. The afternoon’s sideways action down to 2166.50 gained no traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s sideways ranging persisted through Europe’s opens, which barely pierced Wednesday’s high. A dip has tested and retested 2163.00. A bounce is now testing Wednesday afternoon’s 2166.50 lower-end as resistance, with the ECB policy statement just minutes away.

If, then…
A pullback had room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway. So, holding the overnight low is important to this morning’s price action. Wednesday’s 2169.75 high can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.50, which is likely so long as bias-down doesn’t trigger. Regardless, today’s close may or may not confirm Wednesday’s breakout, which could create a very predictable intraday pattern Friday..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2172.50 would be likely to trigger the 2171.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2166.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2163.00 would be likely to trigger the 2164.25 bias-down signal.