The First Trade

 But Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s horrible narrow choppy range at least remained influenced by ongoing intraday testing of support, further confirming that sellers are weak-handed. Holding 2154.00 bias-down signal created a higher attraction at 2163.00 that would become unfinished business. A late surge extended to 2160.00 through the futures close. It was too late for its sponsorship to gain traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
A pullback 2155.25 bottomed before midnight, and a rally resumed soon after. Europe’s opens were greeted by surging to attack 2163.00. A quick correction soon resumed rallying again, extending so far to 2167.25. That’s within 3 ticks of last week’s Globex high, but already above all prior intraday highs.

If, then…
Not gaining traction yesterday made it necessary to gap up today if this morning intends to rally. Gapping up doesn’t ensure rallying, but it gets a benefit of the doubt until disproved. A pullback has room to test 2161.50 before even threatening not to recover. Last week’s 2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme” still requires intraday retest, and not just to within 3 ticks. Hesitating overnight within 3 ticks does reflect pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2168.75 would be likely to exceed the 2165.75 bias-up target through 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2160.75 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s post-close Turkey plunger had been rejected at Sunday night’s open. Fresh highs overnight up to 2163.25 were retraced to greet Monday’s open back at Friday’s 2154.25 cash session close. A quick dip to 2153.00 was recovered enough only to attack Sunday night’s highs. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 2163.75..

Overnight action’s new info…
Very narrow ranging around Monday’s 2160.00 close finally resolved, down. The first leg attacked 2155.00 before bouncing 3 points coming into Europe’s opens. The next leg attacked 2151.00 coming out of Europe’s opens. Now a bounce is testing 2155.00 as resistance, back at Friday’s close and Monday’s open.

If, then…
The only nearby attraction is yesterday’s “unfinished business above” at 2163.75 and then last week’s.2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme which requires intraday retest. Its orbit includes “lower prior highs” in the 2148.00 handle. The rubber band need not test 2148.00 before being stretched enough for snapping back up this morning, unless already snapping back up through the open. That would risk triggering a downleg under 2146.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2154.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2153.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2164.00 originated too late to be credible, warning early that the 2161.50 bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger. Its 2152.00 objective was tested down to 2149.00. The bullish WedEX accompanied an afternoon recovery to 2157.00 before news of Turkey’s coup pushed price down into the close. Post-close action gapped down and extended sharply lower to 2143.00, 11 points under the cash session close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The coup didn’t succeed, if it was even a coup. Sunday night’s 2154.50 open immediately retraced everything under Friday’s cash session close. Immediately extending higher attacked 2161.00 before settling back down to 2155.00. Surging again through Europe’s opens tested 2163.00. That has also settled back down to 2155.00.

If, then…
I had published Monday’s bias parameters before Friday’s post-close plunge. The 2143.00 bias-down target defined the plunge’s low, and the 2163.75 bias-up target defined last night’s high. Since those levels are calculated from price action through Friday’s close, that helps to confirm expiration remains influential. Post-open action remains likely to fulfill the bullish WedEX signal.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2161.00 would be likely to trigger the 2158.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2153.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday started on a high note. Wednesday night’s peak had touched the rally’s 2168.00 objective, but its reaction down to 2156.00 wasn’t entirely recovered before the 2160.00 open. Nor after it. Wide swings probed gradually lower, and last bounced 8 points from 2153.00 to test the 2160.00 open.  The afternoon’s 2150.50 bias-down target was left outstanding below, as was the 2168.00 overnight new Globex trend extreme.

Overnight action’s new info…
A somber atmosphere after the Nice tragedy accompanied another leg down through the Globex open. Attacking the 2150.50 objective within 3 ticks was sufficient to launch a quick surge to 2159.00. But that wasn’t sufficient to launch a recovery, as the low has been attacked twice more to within 1 tick.

If, then…
Both opening and closing Thursday around 2060.00 didn’t reflect any net post-open change. Thinning sponsorship for the rally was masked by the wide-ranging intraday action. The rally’s sponsorship did leave an attraction above at the 2168.00 overnight high, which ought to be retested intraday anyway for being the rally’s target. Meanwhile, bullish WedEX influences aren’t relevant until this afternoon. It isn’t likely to be greeted from above yesterday’s highs, since the open isn’t indicated to gap up above them — which would be the only credible start to a morning rally since buyers gained no traction yesterday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2150.50 would also likely trigger the 2152.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2156.00 and 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 2152.25 pre-open high wasn’t a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring retest intraday, making it more easily reversed post-open down to the 2139.50 morning low. The balance of the session recovered choppily and gradually to attack 2148.00, ending essentially unchanged around 2145.00. No traction was gained, but there was a second consecutive close above 2143.00 and bullish WedEX triggered.

Overnight action’s new info…
A shallow dip was supported for awhile by 2143.00 before firming back up to Wednesday’s 2148.00 post-open highs. A surge attacking 2158.00 into Europe’s opens was extended up to 2162.00 out of Europe’s opens. And a consolidation there broke higher to touch 2168.00. JPM earnings triggered a reversal down that has extended to 12 points as BOE keeps rates unchanged, touching 1256.00 where Europe opened.

If, then…
The second consecutive close above 2143.00 created higher objectives at 2158.00 and potentially also 2168.00. The latter was the overnight high, and it is reacting down already 14 points. But complexity during the rally to 2168.00 makes it a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires being retested intraday, often the same day. Maintaining a gap up above Wednesday’s 2149.00 highs is the only credible path to resuming the rally without delay, or at least to ensure that a post-open dip would be recovered. As does the bullish WedEX. A post-open pullback might take advantage of having three upside influences helping to ensure that a dip would be recovered.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2158.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2154.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.