The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s session was essentially identical to Monday. Both gapped up to new highs, recovered a post-open dip back up to new highs through the morning, and triggered no-bias through the afternoon. Each also dipped before the close, although Tuesday’s 5-point dip from 2149.00 was shallower and less pessimistic than Monday’s 7-point dip, and stopped short of its 2141.00-2143.00 target area. Meanwhile, the minimum requirement of Friday’s confirmed breakout was fulfilled, for at least a third higher close. And intraday sponsorship once again failed to gain traction for their effort .

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late slide extended to touch 2142.00 before midnight. Narrow ranging ended with Europe’s opens, first jumping to 2147.00, and then attacking 2149.00.

If, then…
Closing slightly above the rally’s next higher 2143.00 objective nevertheless put into play even higher objectives, so long as 2143.00 maintains its recovery today. That will be difficult without gapping up above yesterday’s highs, since the rally otherwise won’t likely extend this morning — not after yesterday’s sponsorship failed to gain traction. Yesterday’s highs are being attacked, but not yet probed. It’s not yet too late, and there are still a couple of pre-open catalysts. Not gapping up could still probe higher this morning, but then we would expect the rally to start topping here.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2143.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2141.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2150.50 would be likely to trigger the 2149.25 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)*

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Through the prior close…
More than being maintained, Monday’s gap up above prior highs trended upward to 2132.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. This setup essentially marginalizes sellers from retaking control. But it doesn’t necessarily prevent downdrafts, like the post-open dip back to Friday’s 2125.50 high. Its touch reacted up aggressively to attack 2137.00 through the noon hour. Ranging choppily into the final hour didn’t gain traction, letting the day end by dipping to 2129.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging was resisted by 2132.50 until breaking higher ahead of Europe’s opens. That became a surge through Monday’s highs testing 2138.00. A 4-point correction resolved up to fresh highs at 2141.50.

If, then…
At least one eventual new high close is required because Friday’s breakout was confirmed by Monday’s second consecutive higher close. That need not be today, but the “unfinished business above” does make it more difficult to reject a gap up. Reacting down from attacking, fulfilling or probing the 2143.00 objective might not be avoided, but it would likely be recovered.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility above 2143.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2141.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2137.50 would be likely to trigger the 2135.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Only an errant tick exceeded our long-standing 2125.25 objective. Its test Friday entered the session’s attractions by gapping up above Thursday’s 2102.00 high. It was confirmed in-play by maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Exiting Friday afternoon’s bias environment above prior highs then marginalized sellers for the balance of the day. The close was a new trend high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s closing action had dipped to test 2120.00, where Sunday night’s open ranged narrowly. Firming back toward 2125.25 soon spiked up to 2133.00 on news of Japan;s stimulus. The singular surge was never extended while consolidating back to 2128.00. Blipping down to 2123.00 after Europe’s opens has ranged back to 2129.00.

If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close already requires another eventual higher close. Not necessarily a consecutive higher close, regardless of Sunday night’s probe of new highs. Being a singular leg and not complex, that overnight high is not a “new Globex trend extreme” which would require intraday retest. So, exiting the open in negative territory could resume Friday’s late reaction down from 2125.25, and put the market on defense for today or longer. But exceeding 2125.25 through the open could trend up into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2126.50 would be likely to trigger the 2124.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2134.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2129.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up target. Exiting the open under 2122.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s bullish scenario began unfolding at the opening ticks. But surging substantially and then triggering bias-up couldn’t prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour..Holding the session’s 2082.00 pullback limit allowed the final hour’s 10-point bounce to at least test the morning’s lows, but not to recover them. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late rally initially extended a couple of points to 2094.00, but still reacted down into negative territory at 2087.50. Europe’s opens triggered more of a spike up than a surge, soon attacking 2097.50. A 7-point slide retraced almost all of the spike, but only briefly, as 2097.50 is now being retested.

If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction yesterday, so resuming yesterday morning’s rally this morning would require gapping up above yesterday morning’s 2102.00 high. That’s only another 5-points above the current Globex highs, with a catalyst coming next hour — the Employment Situation report. By the same token, sellers didn’t gain traction yesterday, either, so gapping down in reaction to the payrolls report must open at or under 2082.00 to extend deeper. That’s the rally’s pullback limit, so any lower would threaten the recovery. This being Friday, attracting sponsorship for extending a knee-jerk reaction may be more difficult than attracting sponsorship for sustaining its reaction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications are not available ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s post-open attempt to extend the overnight lows was inappropriately-timed. Its weak-handed sponsorship tested 2066.00, before reversing back up through the balance of the session. Eventually testing 2094.00 neutralized the attraction to last Friday’s 2093.00 higher prior lows, late enough to avoid reacting down.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging absorbed Europe’s weak opens and temporarily probed fresh highs up to 2098.00. Yesterday’s late highs are being tested now as support down to 2091.00.

If, then…
Wednesday’s recovery didn’t gain traction, despite trending up into the close. So, extending the rally this morning without delay would require gapping up, probably above 2097.00. And having tested 2097.00 already overnight, its 2098.00 should be exceeded quickly, too. Not gapping up, or not maintaining a gap up, would be vulnerable to another pullback — perhaps briefer and shallower than yesterday — down to 2082.00..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2099.50 would be likely to trigger the 2097.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2092.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.