The First Trade
The First Trade… Not a beat skipped.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The bullish WedEX dictated that Monday’s 10-point gap down to 2067.00 would recover. It recovered, and then some, eventually extending 15 points into positive territory at 2088.75 and 7 points above last week’s 2081.75 high. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
A momentary dip to 2084.75 at the Globex open was recovered to fresh highs testing 2090.00. Its pullback was already resolving up before Europe’s opens, when the rally steepened and eventually extended up to 2098.50. A dip just attacked 2095.00.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction Monday, gapping up Tuesday is the rally’s only credible path to extending higher without interruption. Not quickly extending the gap up would be vulnerable to reversing back down for the morning, but not necessarily back into negative territory… The rally’s last piece of “unfinished business above” is to retest last year’s last relative highs, now within view at 2110.00. Noise below it begins at 2097.00, which is being attacked overnight. Gapping up to it must extend through it without delay to avoid a corrective dip.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2097.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2093.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2090.50 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15.
The First Trade… No agreement IS agreement.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration session developed almost entirely in negative territory, resisted by Thursday’s 2076.00 close. Fresh lows down to 2069.50 during the afternoon bias environment were recovered just enough just in time to avoid gaining traction, firming further to close at 2075.00. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at 2067.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down 10-11 points to 2064.00 while Crude Oil gapped down almost $2 on no agreement by OPEC members to cut output. Crude’s loss extended to almost $3 as 2058.50 was touched. Reacting up into and out of Europe’s opens twice tested this morning’s 2071.75 bias-down signal as resistance, reaching 2072.75. Both tests reacted back down under Friday’s 2069.50 afternoon bias environment lows to test 2068.00 as support, which is being retested again now. Crude remains well under Friday’s lows.
If, then…
Unfinished business at 2067.50 was fulfilled overnight, while testing its next lower objective at 2059.50. The reaction up to 2070.00 was impressive, but also premature. The bullish WedEX should dispense similarly with the cash session gapping down. In any case, the bullish WedEX should soon resolve any open by rallying through the morning. But a bullish WedEX may be difficult if opening action must absorb selling by overnight buyers getting flat. Regardless, I’ll be monitoring for rallying back into positive territory, and then extending higher while Crude Oil does not, for early signs of a multi-session rally that breaks free from its Crude Oil correlation.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2068.25 would be likely to trigger the 2071.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2073.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
The First Trade…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
A momentary surge to 2079.50 before Thursday’s open was retraced back under Wednesday’s 2077.00 high before the cash session got underway. The reversal extended down to 2071.75 soon after the open. Holding the bias-up signal’s test had put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down another signal several points lower. But the bearish setup was invalidated by rallying through the bias environment’s exit. Fresh highs came within 2-3 ticks of the 2082.25 objective before settling in for an afternoon of narrow ranging around Wednesday’s 2077.00 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
A momentary surge to 2080.00 was retraced as quickly back into Thursday afternoon’s range. The range persisted as narrowly as it had Thursday afternoon, until Europe’s opens launched a break lower. So far, Thursday morning’s low has been attacked to within 2 ticks at 2072.25.
If, then…
Thursday afternoon had missed an opportunity for surging to fresh session highs. Its consequence was to probe fresh session, but the narrow range persisted. That didn’t make a break less likely, which overnight action is trying, albeit still 4 points short of its likely objective to retest Thursday’s 2068.50 pre-open low. Its test should be brief and rejected quickly to avoid extending down to 2059.50. In either case, the afternoon’s bullish WedEX should prevent a morning meltdown. The bullish WedEX should also prevent an afternoon meltdown, so long as the window isn’t entered under 2059.50.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 2071.75 would be likely to trigger the 2073.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2076.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
The First Trade… Correcting weak strength is weak.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Wednesday quickly probed a fresh high, but it’s only reaction down was shallow and brief. Along with being in the orbit of “unfinished business above,” the pattern resolved differently from the three prior sessions’ gaps up. Extending higher satisfied those attractions with a new trend high close at 2076.00. Afternoon buyers gained no traction for their effort, but higher objectives were created.
Overnight action’s new info…
Room for a pullback down to 2068.25-2069.00 was almost fully utilized while sliding into and out of Europe’s opens. That has been recovered entirely back up to unchanged.
If, then…
So long as Thursday’s open doesn’t reject Wednesday’s close above 2073.00, extending the rally would next target 2082.25-2086.50, and potentially 2105.00. Yesterday’s post-open rally wasn’t especially strong, but that could have been enhanced by testing the minimum target overnight. Not already probing higher has missed a preservation tactic that many durable rallies use. So, rather than create unfinished business above to help ensure a later recovery, a post-open pullback testing 2068.25-2069.00 might be unavoidable. And if not brief, then a bigger reversal would start becoming likely.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2077.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2064.50 would be likely to trigger the 2068.25 bias-down signal.
The First Trade… New relative highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s opening surge held a test of the 2041.50 bias-up signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Reversing back up from within 3 points of the objective wasn’t surprising, but not reversing back down again did break the pattern. In fact, that required the ultra-rare occurrence of no-bias trending recovering the 2046.50 bias-up target when the morning’s bias environment lapsed. The afternoon extended higher to 2058.50 before a late dip to 2052.00. Buyers narrowly avoided gaining traction decisively.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended almost relentlessly. A 5-point pullback from 2063.00 into Europe’s opens offered , and now a 4-1/2 point pullback from 2069.25, have not damaged the trend. The 2066.75 high following the Employment Situation report is being probed. But last Sunday night’s 2071.50 “new Globex trend extreme” remains as yet untouched.
If, then…
Relentless overnight trending often reverses direction intraday, especially when greeting the open at a prior extreme or support/resistance. Breaking the obstacle through the open then often extends the overnight trending intraday. Gapping up above prior highs have only a brief window to attract post-open sponsorship. The immediate past three sessions each extended their gaps up for 45, 40 and then 15 minutes before reversing back down. There is little assurance of another gap up not repeating this pattern, especially being indicated to open at the renewed bias-up target. That little assurance is two pieces of “unfinished business above” — the 2071.50 new Globex trend extreme’s required retest, and an eventual new trend higher close for the current uptrend’s Friday high close.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal (it’s 2069.00 renewed bias-up target is being tested overnight).